Canadian Future

[lurker532]

I've never looked into the political forum before so missed this thread when it was posted earlier.

I doubt the Conservatives will win the next election and it has nothing to do Gomery. Harper and the Conservatives are stuck with the baggage of the Reform party. Why is it that Ontario elected Mike Harris (very right wing in fiscal policies) to two majorities, but wouldn't touch Reform/Alliance with a 10 ft pole? Was it a splitting of votes between Reform/Alliance and the old Conservatives? While it's true they would have gotten a few seats, they still wouldn't have formed the government. The answer is that on social issues, the Reform/Alliance party was seen as WAY too right wing.

Even after the merge with the Conservative party, Harper's position on social issues are seen as being those of the old Reform party he was part of. What has he done to ease those worries about being too right wing on social issues? Well, he's come out strong on the "traditional" definition of marriage. It's true that the country is fairly evenly split on this issue so it doesn't sound like such a bad thing. Unfortunately, it makes his sound bites on the news sound a lot like those coming from the religious right in other stories from the US. He's getting tarred by the conservative brush of US politics (e.g. Schaivo, social security debate, etc.).

The NDP and Conservatives have no real chance at seats in Quebec and it's looking like the Liberals won't have a chance at many (if any) either. As in previous elections this will effectively remove Quebec from federal politics (at least as seen in the rest of the country). I know that may sound a bit incendiary but Quebec used to be the king-maker in federal politics: win Quebec and you were set for a majority. Now, why even bother to campaign in Quebec? It'll just go Bloc and end up a being an opposition party that isn't really covered by the english media in the rest of Canada. Thanks to the Bloc, Ontario is big prize.

The NDP have the opposite problem of the Conservatives: the social policies may be palatable to most but the fiscal policies are seen as too left wing. However, Layton has done a good job with his political stick handling over the past few weeks.

Now, since Harper is still seen as too right wing in Ontario and parts east, Quebec has been removed thanks to the Bloc, and the NDP are seen as too left wing, that leaves the Liberal party in power for the forseable future.

Regardless of your political beliefs or which party you support (and for the record I don't support the Conservatives), this is a bad thing for the country. We need a strong opposition (i.e. an opposition that has a legitimate chance of being elected) to keep the party in power from getting sloppy and complacent.

So here's what I see happening. Sometime between now and next January we will have an election. Assuming nothing else too explosive comes out of Gomery, voters will plug their nose and the Liberals will hang on to a minority government. Harper will be tossed as the leader of the Conservatives. If they pick the right leader the Conservatives come back a year or two later and put the Liberals into the opposition. The key is in picking the right leader. At the moment I think the best choice they have is Peter McKay since he's from the maritimes which helps brush away the old Reform/Aliance ghosts. However, he does have some baggage from the events of the merge.

But being politics, predictions beyond tomorrow are pretty much useless since the lanscape changes pretty quickly.

[Mischief007]

Damn...good post and you are absolutely right.

[Renesis]

nice post, but now I wonder what will happen with the vote next week...

they're calculating and it sould be even or it should be won by ONE vote...

[lurker532]

Too close to call. Should be an interesting day.

Great political move by Ed Broadbent about the "pairing" for the votes. If the NDP can run an election campaign as well as they've handled the last few weeks they could have a very good election.

[Mischief007]

Next week is going to be hell for me. So much going on but I still think it will pass, Canadians will loose more money and the dildo in Canadians asses is getting bigger by the minute.

[Renesis]

why is it hell for you? are you a campagn worker?

[Renesis]

That blonde jackass bitch went liberal... oh the fuss! I bet Harper was pissed...

[SiR_dude]

Originally Posted by Renesis

That blonde jackass bitch went liberal... oh the fuss! I bet Harper was pissed...

I know Heard that on the radio at work...my boss and another guy simultaneously said "That f**ing bitch!!"

Wonder how much she got for it? I heard she's already a minister (labour??) of some sort

[///M]

Womp womp!!!

Liberal pimp slap to the Conservatives. We just need one more vote to stop Canada from becoming Jesus Land Pt. 2.

[Renesis]

Originally Posted by SiR_dude

I know Heard that on the radio at work...my boss and another guy simultaneously said "That f**ing bitch!!"

Wonder how much she got for it? I heard she's already a minister (labour??) of some sort

I thought it was human ressources but whatever... that shouldn't be allowed.. if she wants to change her party, a new vote should be made.

[lurker532]

I think the smarter long term political move for Stronach would have been to turn independent instead of crossing the aisle. I haven't been too impressed with the interviews of her I've seen. She got flustered when pushed off her talking points and didn't answer questions too well. Reminded me of Stockwell Day's performances during the 2000 election campaign.

The more I see of Peter McKay the more I think the Conservatives need to get him as a leader ASAP. His interview with CBC was masterful.

[SiR_dude]

Putting bets on the vote??

[lurker532]

My prediction is the government will win the vote on the original budget (with 2 Nfld Conservatives voting in favour of it). I think the government will also win the amendment vote but will need the speaker to break the tie.

[Renesis]

My bet is that liberals will win by a very small margin (1-2 votes)

I also think conservatives don't want to do it anymore...

recent surveys showed that they'd lose Ontario, so they're probably fucked, and since they lost Belinda too it hurt them a lot. They have zero chance in Quebec too so I'm not even sure they could win a minimum..

bye bye Harper! you won't be missed!

[SiR_dude]

I'm fence sitting this one. If anything, I also think the Liberals will squeak through..with all of the Conservative big talk, I think they're starting to realize that although everyone hates the Liberals for the Sponsorship Scandal, that doesn't mean they instantly love the Conservatives

[lurker532]

I think that's why most Canadian's don't want an election: We don't really like any of the choices.

[lurker532]

Cadman supports the government!

[CanadianLoonie]

It's a great day for Canada as the Anti-Canadian Coalition for Quebec and Western Separation has been defeated with the support of Jack Layton and the NDP, Carolyn Parrish, Belinda Stronach, and Chuck Cadman.

Who would have thought that the Conservatives and the Bloc would be able to work together 12 months ago...

[Roman]

Originally Posted by CanadianLoonie

It's a great day for Canada as the Anti-Canadian Coalition for Quebec and Western Separation has been defeated with the support of Jack Layton and the NDP, Carolyn Parrish, Belinda Stronach, and Chuck Cadman.

You guys seriously believe any of these elected clowns are working for you, the voter/taxpayer instead of their own interest ?



I just caught up on the whole thread as I had read the first post some time ago but none of the others and you guys remind me of something I heard before about politics.

If you are not an idealist at twenty, you have no heart. If you still are an idealist at forty, you're a dreamer.

Believe me. Any move a politician makes is intended at making the taxpayers think he is working for them while making sure he gets what he wants (money, power, re-election) at the same time.

I still vote and inform myself before doing so but less and less believe it makes any difference at all.

Politicians, to me, rank just below used car salesman.

[///M]

The Conservatives got bitch slapped. No ifs, ands, or buts. I like how the NDP has some say now; maybe they can get real issues like marijuana on the table .