Hrmm, it's hard to make a call on who is in the best shape for the race. The Red Bulls were more competitive than I expected on the hards with pace that really seemed to come from nowhere, however they werent that quick on the soft tyres which they burn up very quickly. It'll probably be a two stop race as it's unreasonable to expect the hard tyres to last 50 laps or so. They have the advantage of running the soft tyres at the end of the race when the track will have rubbered in and the tyres wont degrade as much.
Hamilton did two flying lap on those softs and we've seen how they fall off the edge after two or three laps so he may struggle in the early stages before the tyres come back to him. Again, it seems unreasonable to expect the usual one stop strategy from him. Safety car may change things but we'll have to see. Personally I think this one may fall Red Bull's way assuming there's no rain or anything unexpected.
Then again, if Red Bull are aiming to run a long first stint, a safety car might screw them when Hamilton and Alonso pit earlier. If Hamilton pits on say, lap 15 and there's a safety car on lap 16 (or anywhere between 16-30), Red Bull will probably be done. And this is a track where there is always a safety car.