There has been an interesting question coming up on news media here and I wonder if those Britons here who are for UK leaving the EU, can confirm or deny it:
Some very serious media sources here indicate that those who are for a Brexit speculate on leaving the EU with keeping the common market privileges and other niceties while getting rid of the inconvenient stuff, like, say, paying money or letting EU immigrants into the country. And some seem to believe that once Britain has left the EU, a new membership under better conditions could be negotiated. Let me make this very clear:
Will. Not. Happen.
On the contrary: The EU Commission will be very, very strict with U.K., if only to make an example, so that others don't take the same path. That has nothing to do with being vengeful (even though I am sure it will be communicated that way in Britain afterwards). After all, we're talking about an international treaty here and if one country shows that its regulations can be re-negotiated or softened, it would have a cascading effect on other EU member states. So expect a hard fall on a very icy ground, once Britain has left the U.K. The EU won't give an inch. Once the UK is out, it's out and that's it. No more common market, no more money for structural weak regions (like Cornwall for instance), no niceties.
What follows, will be negotiations on a new treaty with the EU, something similar to what Switzerland and Norway have. And that can take years. Years without the common market and other privileges the EU provides. Doesn't matter, you say? As long as it keeps those pesty immigrants away? Think again: In order to keep the benefits of a new market without being a EU member, Britain would also have to fulfill certain obligations in return --
like for example still accepting immigrants from the EU! I mention this because money aside, the immigrant question seems to be the main motivator behind a Brexit.
So how long would it take for the UK and the EU to negotiate a new treaty (which is of course absolutely necessary for the future relations)? The only example we have for such an event, is when Greenland left the EU. Greenland, the country which basically lives from catching and selling fish. Still it took three years to negotiate a new treaty with the EU. Three years without any of the EU benefits, without a common market.
With UK, experts calculate about
ten years. Won't go faster. See the TTIP negotiations and how slow they're going.
So a Brexit would not mean you just stop being a member of the EU but losing all EU privilges from day one after the Brexit, with the hope of maybe re-gaining them in 10 years or so -- but without any say in EU businesses. And what if Britain decides to go back into the EU again one day? Well, they can but without all the discounts and privileges Margaret Thatcher negotiated. No more special treatments.
Still willing to leave the EU? Okay then. Go with God but go already