Covid 19 CRISIS

Sad tale of how a 2 employees of a long term care facility for old folk showed symptoms, requested to be put on leave, but those request were declined and they had to come in to work. Now that facility is one of the worst hotspot in the province, with 8 deaths so far.


In French, but worth translating.
https://lp.ca/NDS2r4

Death toll now 13, 5 more since the article was published this morning.
 
President of Taiwan
Today I announced three major areas where #Taiwan will contribute to the global fight against #COVID19:

: Donating 10 million face masks to countries in need.

: Increasing production of quinine.

: Sharing our use of technology to trace & investigate outbreaks.


Chance of a G&T vaccine?
 
https://www.mlive.com/public-intere...state-to-eclipse-20000-coronavirus-cases.html

Michigan becomes 3rd state to eclipse 20,000 coronavirus cases

Michigan health officials announced 1,376 new confirmed COVID-19 cases and 114 new deaths from the virus as of 10 a.m. on Wednesday, April 8.

It marks 10th consecutive day with at least 1,000 new cases but the smallest daily increase since March 31. This is the third day in a row with at least 100 new deaths, but was just shy of Tuesday’s peak of 118 new deaths.

Michigan now has 20,346 confirmed cases and 959 deaths. It becomes the third state in the country to reach 20,000 confirmed cases, following New York and New Jersey.
 
Today's Missouri Update. 3,327 cases (+290) / 58 deaths (+5)

What is interesting is there doesn't seem to be an official count for those that are recovered, but there are some cases in Missouri.

Missouri Covd-19 Total Cases and Deaths.png
 


 
Not really great news this. But more studies have to be made before any conclusion can be made. South Korea reported that at least 74 people that had the corona virus and recovered, are now infected again. There seem to be low numbers of antibodies on younger people in particular. Higher among older
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/sci...rus-low-antibody-levels-raise-questions-about
This looks extremely inconclusive, I agree with needing more studies. Though typically we don’t develop permanent resistance to corona viruses
 
This looks extremely inconclusive, I agree with needing more studies. Though typically we don’t develop permanent resistance to corona viruses
It is inconclusive. But there is a trend. It just shows we need more testing. A lot more testing
 
Not really great news this. But more studies have to be made before any conclusion can be made. South Korea reported that at least 74 people that had the corona virus and recovered, are now infected again. There seem to be low numbers of antibodies on younger people in particular. Higher among older
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/sci...rus-low-antibody-levels-raise-questions-about

74 people among 10K infected are far from a systematic problem. Talking about the problems in developing an antibody test a friend of mine working at the Robert Koch Institute (not on Covid-19, so take this with a grain of salt) explained to me that in other viruses we see not all immune people developing antibodies, which makes developing a working test so damn hard, as you not only have to test for antibodies, but also for other signs of immune response.

Meanwhile, in positive news - the first Corona field study from a highly affected county in Germany (Heinsberg, the guys with the carnival celebrations) is in and they put the overall mortality rate at 0.37%. Does not solve any problems with ICUs being overloaded due to the sheer speed of the spread, but it puts things into perspective.

This looks extremely inconclusive, I agree with needing more studies. Though typically we don’t develop permanent resistance to corona viruses
From what I understood "resistance" is not black and white - Drosten said on his podcast that most likely a second infection would be mild, like one of the known Coronaviruses, as your immune system knows what it's up against.
 
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What could possibly go wrong? - FWIW, the two mass testing sites in heavily impacted Philly metro area are closing, with hopes that hospital labs will be able to possibly fill the void - but with them testing hundreds of people a day still....that's probably unlikely.

One can't help but wonder...is this a way to artificially lower the diagnosis count so that it can thus "bend the curve" faster in hopes of a premature
"re-opening of the country?"
 
The Covid Report
 
From what I understood "resistance" is not black and white - Drosten said on his podcast that most likely a second infection would be mild, like one of the known Coronaviruses, as your immune system knows what it's up against.
When I say resistance I mean a "you don't get sick again", we know that "normal" corona viruses don't give us a lasting immunity and cause what we call the common cold (rhinovirus is another common pathogen for that), which while uncomfortable isn't going to put you in the ICU.

So there is a chance that a vaccine isn't going to be possible, nor would a life time immunity. What might happen is that this becomes an endemic virus that does become more mild over time (like say the flu we have now vs the one in 1918). Or it might disappear completely like SARS/MERS did.


The one piece of good news when it comes to viruses in general is that even though they mutate rather quickly they tend to trend towards mildness not deadliness, main reason is that a virus that kills it's host has a lower chance to reproduce and infect others.

What could possibly go wrong? - FWIW, the two mass testing sites in heavily impacted Philly metro area are closing, with hopes that hospital labs will be able to possibly fill the void - but with them testing hundreds of people a day still....that's probably unlikely.

One can't help but wonder...is this a way to artificially lower the diagnosis count so that it can thus "bend the curve" faster in hopes of a premature
"re-opening of the country?"
I actually had this discussion with someone on Facebook. The main reason to have a lot of testing and testing sites is to identify and contain the spread, however we are and have been way past that. Right now all the stay at home orders and social distancing guidelines are really aimed at one thing and one thing only - keep the numbers of acute patients low enough for hospitals to be able to handle the influx.

Secondary reason for testing is statistics, the more infected you identify the better idea you have of the speed and severity of infection. Those things are pretty important to know but the problem is that the more people you test the higher the strain on your labs. Additionally you can still have an idea of rates of infection from testing only people who are sick enough to go to hospitals.
For example in my wife's hospital they had to change ER protocols to only request lab work if it is absolutely needed* because the lab is already overloaded with C19 testing.

*normally labs would be ordered to confirm a diagnosis but diagnosis can often be made without the labs

Finally current CDC testing guidelines are to test only if it changes medical management**, which doesn't really require mobile testing sites as anyone well enough to go to one likely doesn't need medical intervention ;)

**For example if you have a mild fever, cough and fatigue but nothing else, there isn't anything that a doctor can do for you. OTOH if you have pneumonia it's important to know if it's viral or bacterial.
 
So there is a chance that a vaccine isn't going to be possible, nor would a life time immunity. What might happen is that this becomes an endemic virus that does become more mild over time (like say the flu we have now vs the one in 1918). Or it might disappear completely like SARS/MERS did.
There is a little leap in logic here - many vaccines need regular (yearly or every x years) refreshers, so that immunity wears off does not even remotely mean a vaccine not being possible.

The second part of your post I will not even touch, since it is pretty clear that how the rest of the world fights covid-19 and what the US does are not compatible. Conservative wisdom over here, for example, says you need more testing to be able to release lockdowns. But I trust you and your government that you know better.
 
One glove Gov!!!

 
There is a little leap in logic here - many vaccines need regular (yearly or every x years) refreshers, so that immunity wears off does not even remotely mean a vaccine not being possible.
The only vaccine I know that requires a refresher is tetanus, flu vaccines are not refreshers but rather new vaccines against a specific strand that is believed to become prevalent during the upcoming flu season.

The second part of your post I will not even touch, since it is pretty clear that how the rest of the world fights covid-19 and what the US does are not compatible. Conservative wisdom over here, for example, says you need more testing to be able to release lockdowns. But I trust you and your government that you know better.
I am not claiming to be the end all be all authority on testing, I am simply offering a slightly different opinion based on logic. I am more than happy to read arguments that poke holes in my opinion. The argument of "others are doing it this way" is a non argument. To give you an example, your country allows public highways with no speed limits and all other countries don't, does that mean Germany is wrong about their autobahns?
Also it ends fedral support of testing centers, it doesn't stop testing in general
 
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