North Korean fires artillery on South

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You guys think this will lead to something? There's a lot of tension between those countries.
I doubt it. Remember that they killed 46 people not too long ago; callous as it sounds, I doubt two more will be the tipping point.
 
I doubt it. Remember that they killed 46 people not too long ago; callous as it sounds, I doubt two more will be the tipping point.

The difference here is firing on civilians, does that have precedent in recent history?
 
It can. It might end up as our generation's Cuban missile crisis, of sorts. Not in nature, but in fear. If it develops, it can lead to full scale war. And that will be scary, fucking scary.

(Yeah, I know it's only a sease fire, but it hasn't been actual war for decades.)

Edit: As for opening fire on civilians, it does sound like collateral damage (as the two dead were soldiers, in other words closer to the spot they hit), but the rethoric is harder than I can remember in recent history. Especially from the South Koreans. You never know with the DPRK, you never know.
 
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I doubt it. Remember that they killed 46 people not too long ago; callous as it sounds, I doubt two more will be the tipping point.
It goes both ways, of course. SK suspects that they killed quite a few members of the DPRK forces; they retaliated with about eighty 155mm Howitzer rounds and air strikes, which would presumably be much more accurate than the DPRK's fire.

Of course, that's likely exactly what the DPRK expected. Now they have more "evidence" of the "evil puppet government's aggression" or however they term it. They'll use this to keep their forces riled up.

Obviously the cost of another Korean war would be terrible, but South Korea can only take so much of this. I wonder what their breaking point is.
 

"Reckless attacks on South Korean civilians are not tolerable, especially when South Korea is providing North Korea with humanitarian aid," Lee said, according to Yonhap.


"As for such attacks on civilians, a response beyond the rule of engagement is necessary. Our military should show this through action rather than an administrative response" such as statements or talks, he said.
Methinks South Korea is going to cut all remaining ties with NK, including aid. Kaesong is already shuttered, right?
 
SK stopped SK citizens from visiting Kaesong, but it's still business as usual otherwise as far as I can tell. As for going to war, NK will have to act first or else SK will turn from victim to aggressor. In this case, SK fired shells first (not at NK, but from a contested area), NK then fired at the island killing two, SK fired at NK with unknown casualites.

At this point it's sort of even, and up to NK to make the next move.
 
If SK retaliates and goes to war, what kind of assistance can they expect?

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I don?t really see any european countries joining them to be honest. Some other countries in the area might support South Korea and the United States ... but more indirectly.

The really interesting question would be what kind of a position China will take ... while being the only country with any realtions to NK worth mentioning - China sees NK more as it?s embarrassing cousin than a real ally. But if China would decide to join a war at NKs side ... well ... let?s just hope that doesn?t happen.
 
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Well to some extent, air support won't be much of an issue, but ground troops might be a bit of a problem without withdrawing from other war zones.
 
They won't need ground troops. They South Koreans have people, even if the North Koreans have more people under arms, they're ill equiped and probably ill trained. They'll bleed, but they'd win.

The trouble is wether or not the DPRK would use probable nukes, and what, if any missile attacks could be done towards cities and population centras in SK.
 
I was more thinking about tanks and armoured vehicles, but SK must be much better equipped than NK. Anyway the nukes might be the biggest deterrent to a new war.
 
I don't know which tanks the DPRK has, but I'm willing to bet they're not any type of match for the SK armies tanks. We're talking about a high tech society, remember. From what I can gather, the mainstay of the DPRK armoured forces is Soviet made T-62s. They were scary in 1961. They're scary to me and you. Against a modern armoured force, they're about as scary as a Tiger (the tank, that is). That's before we discuss the matter of air power, where the DPRK is completely out of date.

Their only real card is their supposed nukes.
 
Plus their artillery fire which is supposed to hit Seoul within minutes.
 
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