The Aviation Thread [Contains Lots of Awesome Pictures]

ScarFace88

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I know about the Vincennes incident. However, the plane was shot down less than five minutes out of Tehran, in Iranian airspace, and they're refusing to allow the black boxes to be inspected. Those things make me focus my suspicions towards Iran. I may be wrong, it wouldn't be the first time.
 

prizrak

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I know about the Vincennes incident. However, the plane was shot down less than five minutes out of Tehran, in Iranian airspace, and they're refusing to allow the black boxes to be inspected. Those things make me focus my suspicions towards Iran. I may be wrong, it wouldn't be the first time.
Why do you automatically assume it was shut down?
 

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I think some people are just speculating based on probability right now, but with the Iranian military likely to be a little trigger-happy in the current climate, even though it may not have been with malice aforethought, it's certainly a consideration, and if they are refusing access to the FDR and CVR they are only going to be adding fuel to that speculation.
 

CrzRsn

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I think some people are just speculating based on probability right now, but with the Iranian military likely to be a little trigger-happy in the current climate, even though it may not have been with malice aforethought, it's certainly a consideration, and if they are refusing access to the FDR and CVR they are only going to be adding fuel to that speculation.
There were some tweets out of Iran too saying it was shot down before the official channels said that it wasn't. There are witnesses that claim they saw the plane on fire before it hit the ground, but that doesn't necessarily mean it was shot down. The airline did day that that the plane just passed an inspection just days ago with no abnormalities, and the captain has had over 12,000 hours in 737s. But like MWF said, at this point in time its all speculation.
 
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ScarFace88

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Why do you automatically assume it was shut down?
I didn't automatically assume it had been shot down. I made that statement based on what appeared to be shrapnel holes in the wreckage, which is consistent with it being shot down by a surface to air missile.

UIA 752:




MH17:
 

RdKetchup

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I'm curious how open Iran will be during the investigation, they seemed to have done a 180 since yesterday.

It does look like an Iranian SAM is one of the most likely possibilities, but it's surely not the only one.
 

CrzRsn

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Apparently Trudeau just stated that Canada has intelligence confirming it was shot down.
 

bone

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I'm curious how open Iran will be during the investigation, they seemed to have done a 180 since yesterday.

It does look like an Iranian SAM is one of the most likely possibilities, but it's surely not the only one.
i'm curious how open your master clown will be during the investigation. at the moment US companies are not allow to cooperate with the iranian government on any level...
and also, if you're iran, why let the Boeing employees go home after the investigation? i'd arrest them and use them as leverage tool...
as a Boeing employee, i wouldn't be all that jumpy to go investigate
 
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Dr_Grip

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@bone that's a lot of tinfoil hat shit going on there, even for a middle east topic. Wow.

Here's my two cents:
  • Accidentally shooting down a passenger plane is possible but not probable
  • But then again, it's the middle east so if it was shot down, maybe it was shot down deliberately?
  • If yes, then by which faction (does not have to be Iran) and with which intention?
  • On the other hand, if we assume human error could be at play in accidently shooting the plane down, couldn't human error also induce a fuckup during maintenance?
  • North America gains doubly from the "friendly fire" theory since it makes their foe, Iran, look bad, while taking Boeing out of the firing line
  • That means Trump (and, to a lesser degree, Trudeau) have something to gain from clearly assigning blame
  • For that very reason, I would not let enemy (US/Boeing) experts have unrestricted access to the FDR, let alone hand it over to them
  • I thus think it's a good decision by Iran to invite international experts to investigate, while not handing over any hardware.
 

calvinhobbes

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i'm curious how open your master clown will be during the investigation. at the moment US companies are not allow to cooperate with the iranian government on any level...
and also, if you're iran, why let the Boeing employees go home after the investigation? i'd arrest them and use them as leverage tool...
as a Boeing employee, i wouldn't be all that jumpy to go investigate
Holy hell, where to even start? RdKetchup is Canadian and his “master clown” is Justin Trudeau, so put that in your pipe and smoke it.

Secondly, there are exemptions from the sanctions for e.g. humanitarian goods and services. There is no good reason to believe that NTSB investigators would be stopped from cooperating with their Iranian counterparts in this case. The politicians are the hotheads, not the professionals. But then again, Trump is basically insane, so who knows what he’ll do about professional cooperation.

Finally, the Iranians aren’t stupid enough to take investigators hostage. These aren’t the days of “Argo” (as in the movie).
 
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Dr_Grip

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Holy hell, where to even start? RdKetchup is Canadian and his “master clown” is Justin Trudeau, so put that in your pipe and smoke it.
One has to admit that Trudeau is rather fond of wearing make-up, which makes him a bit of a clown:
 

bone

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Holy hell, where to even start? RdKetchup is Canadian and his “master clown” is Justin Trudeau, so put that in your pipe and smoke it.

Secondly, there are exemptions from the sanctions for e.g. humanitarian goods and services. There is no good reason to believe that NTSB investigators would be stopped from cooperating with their Iranian counterparts in this case. The politicians are the hotheads, not the professionals. But then again, Trump is basically insane, so who knows what he’ll do about professional cooperation.
i didn't know he was canadian, of course i was talking about trump
and he is insane! so indeed, who knows how he will react...

Finally, the Iranians aren’t stupid enough to take investigators hostage. These aren’t the days of “Argo” (as in the movie).
no, these are the days where international deals which took years to accomplish (paris environmental act, nuclear deal with iran, trades deal with china) are blown up just because he feels like it, or doesn't fit his personal agenda.

the cancallation of the nuclear deal with iran has a huuuge impact on the local population and economics.
and if you press someone into a corner, they might behave violently...especially if you kill their leaders...which is something which hasn't been done by any of the western coallition since WWII
 
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CrzRsn

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Regarding who is/is not allowed to invetigate:

From wiki:

On 9 January, the Swedish Accident Investigation Authority and Transportation Safety Board of Canada were officially invited by the investigation team to participate in the probe on the crash.[52] The U.S. National Transportation Safety Board,[77][78][79] Ukraine, and Boeing were also invited to participate in the investigation.[52]
Source links for all invites are in the article.

Though that said, some sketchy shit going on

On 9 January 2020, media reports showed bulldozers being used at the crash site. Some aircraft investigation experts expressed concerns about disturbing and damaging the crash site before a thorough investigation can be conducted.[82] Iran denied bulldozing the evidence.[83] As of 9 January 2020, Ukrainian investigators were still waiting for Iranian government permission to investigate the crash site.[84][85]
 

LeVeL

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Seeing more and more media reports that Iran shot down the plane. Meanwhile, Boeing stock is down over 1.5% today. Also seeing reports that Ukrainian investigators and Boeing personnel will finally be allowed access to the crash site.

Edit:
Apparently there's data that shows two surface-to-air missiles were detected shortly before the plane came down. Yikes...
/edit




i'm curious how open your master clown will be during the investigation.
Holy hell, where to even start? RdKetchup is Canadian and his “master clown” is Justin Trudeau, so put that in your pipe and smoke it.
bone, in your effort to derail the thread into politics, you became the clown.
 
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Dr_Grip

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Seeing more and more media reports that Iran shot down the plane.

[...]

Edit:
Apparently there's data that shows two surface-to-air missiles were detected shortly before the plane came down. Yikes...
/edit
As it's the middle east and not remotely a sane corner of the planet politically, I think attribution of the missile will be harder than determining whether the plane was shot down or not. Basically all warring factions have had access to soviet and/or american equipment at one point or another so make and model of missile used are only of limited help...
 
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