Random Thoughts (Political Edition)

Well, this is just the prologue. The really interesting stuff will happen, if they cannot agree on anything until October 17th...
 
They actually fucking shut it down? Idiots. The only sane thing for moderate republicans to do now is to cross the floor and become conservative democrats. Then do another vote on the speakership, and Boehner is finally gone. Tea party will fizzle out once the 80 % of Americans who understand how damaging the shutdown is start to realize it's their fault and Boehner can stand for the nomination in 15 years time and lose to the governor of a significant state on the east coast.

I think you're wrong on the Tea Party Caucus those have this political bent have a strong mandate from the far right. In many cases the Tea Party candidate primaried the moderate republican to get their seat. If moderate republicans cross the floor and become democrats they will end up like Arlen Specter a man without a party. Arlen Specter switch to become a democrat when he saw he would have been in primary against a more conservative republican then the democrats abandoned him. Boehner has all but said he would be leaving in 2014 which is part of the problem. Boehner has been planning his retirement, members know it, and now there is a leadership vacuum. Boehner does not have the house votes to act as leader so the democrats don't even have a negotiation partner. This has no effect on them whatsoever.

Although we have seen this again and again with The President unable to act as broker. If you read The President's twitter account you would think he is a child then for him to say "I shouldn't have to offer anything" you realize he really is just as entrenched. PBS's Frontline had a great documentary and several close entities state that the WH don't know how to guide the process. Bob Woodward wrote from the inside just how inept the WH is when it comes to these type of last minute deal hashing. Although this is not last minute remember Sequestration. For the republicans that was in their eyes a success even if the "Grand Bargain" was or was not pushed to the forefront.

I don't know what the end game is because if the Democrats think that the Tea Party Caucus will come back to the table because of poll numbers of the national dislike for the shutdown they are ignoring that those Tea Party districts will love it.
 
Although we have seen this again and again with The President unable to act as broker. If you read The President's twitter account you would think he is a child then for him to say "I shouldn't have to offer anything" you realize he really is just as entrenched.

I think he needs to maintain his position. The Affordable Care Act is for all intents and purposes a law. Republicans challenged it, and the Supreme Court maintained that the Act is indeed constitutional. What is there to argue about? Whether they like it or not should be irrelevant.

MacGuffin is right though - this is all a preamble to the shitstorm that will happen on October 17th.
 
I think he needs to maintain his position. The Affordable Care Act is for all intents and purposes a law. Republicans challenged it, and the Supreme Court maintained that the Act is indeed constitutional. What is there to argue about? Whether they like it or not should be irrelevant.

MacGuffin is right though - this is all a preamble to the shitstorm that will happen on October 17th.

I believe that the ACA is a red herring. The Republican leadership has said it is law and Democrats know that there will be changes but over time. The claim is if businesses are allowed an extra year to comply why should the individual have to be held to a higher standard. Again I think this is a red herring the shutdown is only to create a pressure cooker in a larger budget discussion. As MacGuffin has said October 17th is big battle and to get a better position the Republicans have held off appropriations and use the power of purse to work on the budget.

If you watch Cliffhanger from Frontline by PBS you see that the discussion was major concessions on the part of Boehner with increases of revenue. It fell apart when Obama wanted more as a result Obama weakened his negotiating partner in Boehner and helped the Tea Party by demonstrating that the President was dealing from the bottom of the deck. Despite Boehner's and centrist Republicans efforts the Obama administration's view has always been to be as entrenched as the Tea Party. What we got was Sequestration believing that this would be a gun to the head of the legislature to come to around to the WH way of thinking. It backfired Sequestration went through and had limited effect. In a way the shutdown is being viewed as much the same way by Cruz and his compatriots. They believe that the only people who cared about Sequestration was the WH and liberals the average American did not really understand it.

The shutdown is more or less a power play for that discussion on the 17th
 
When Obama tried to build a bridge between the party divides, he was called weak. Now he stands his ground and is called unable to broker. Damed if you do...
 
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When Obama tried to build a bridge between the party divides, he was called weak. Now he stands his ground and is called unable to broker. Damed if you do...

This. Obama and the Democrats negotiated plenty over the ACA with the Republicans when the bill was being drafted. Even then, no concessions made by the Dems made the Republicans happy. The Republicans aren't interested in negotiating. They want THEIR way. So much that they'll shut the government down to get it, even though that won't help them.

And no, Obama should not be negotiating right now. Taking hostages is not a manner of compromise, and the GOP is holding government funding hostage. The red herring is that Republicans are saying they are trying to compromise.
 
I agree. If I was Obama, I would show the Republicans the finger and say: "Fuck you. I cannot be re-elected anyway, so I got nothing to lose, and the public opinion is on my side. The ball is in YOUR field now".
 
And no, Obama should not be negotiating right now. Taking hostages is not a manner of compromise, and the GOP is holding government funding hostage. The red herring is that Republicans are saying they are trying to compromise.

Their doing their job. Congress has the power of the purse they are to be the check and balance to the power of the executive. Even if you don't like it, this is how negotiations begin when you have an intractable President. The President won one election; but the Republicans have majority in the House, they won too. The next fiscal cliff is right around the corner so why wait to negotiate until the eve of another problem. Democrats and Republicans know we need more revenue and to manage our budget better if this is what it takes to make that possible so be it.

I agree. If I was Obama, I would show the Republicans the finger and say: "Fuck you. I cannot be re-elected anyway, so I got nothing to lose, and the public opinion is on my side. The ball is in YOUR field now".

But that is being just as intractable as you claim the Republicans are being. He can't be re-elected so he has nothing to lose in compromising and being threatened with claims of alienating his base. However; those Republican in the House are in safe red districts and many in the tea party look at the shutdown as a good thing. Both parties are looking at the shutdown as a good thing for their base which makes it more likely that compromise won't come anytime soon. If the fire is put out early within the first week bipartisanship on budget issues might be more possible.
 
Their doing their job. Congress has the power of the purse they are to be the check and balance to the power of the executive. Even if you don't like it, this is how negotiations begin when you have an intractable President. The President won one two elections; but the Republicans have majority in the House, they won too. The next fiscal cliff is right around the corner so why wait to negotiate until the eve of another problem. Democrats and Republicans know we need more revenue and to manage our budget better if this is what it takes to make that possible so be it.

This isn't a battle over cutting spending though. The ACA pays for itself, and the CBO estimates the ACA will actually reduce the deficit. Instead, the House Republicans are trying to kill a law that was passed by Congress and signed by the President 4 years ago and then upheld by the Supreme Court because they don't like it (or more accurately, I assert, because they don't want the President to have a success) by holding the entire government hostage. If they don't like parts of the ACA, then deal with that separately, and I don't mean by voting 40 times to repeal the law when they know they won't win. If they seriously take issue with parts of the law, like the tax on medical equipment, then they should discuss with the Dems and the Senate other ways to raise funds for the law. Instead they have taken a partisan, all or nothing approach that they know they can't win. That's not doing their job.

This isn't a matter of an intractable President. To say both sides share blame is a false equivalence in this situation. The ACA is law. It's done. The President and the Dems aren't holding the government hostage to change the law, which was passed and upheld by all branches of government. Only the Republicans are doing that.
 
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But that is being just as intractable as you claim the Republicans are being. He can't be re-elected so he has nothing to lose in compromising and being threatened with claims of alienating his base. However; those Republican in the House are in safe red districts and many in the tea party look at the shutdown as a good thing. Both parties are looking at the shutdown as a good thing for their base which makes it more likely that compromise won't come anytime soon. If the fire is put out early within the first week bipartisanship on budget issues might be more possible.



With Congress having a 10% approval rating, nobody is safe.

Why is it that the House has passed bills 40 some times to repeal the law and they think it looks like they are negotiating? There is no attempt to do anything other than what they have done since Obama took office, stop anything he is wanting to get done and make him look bad.
 
I say one election as in he is one man and the house has won 232 elections.

This isn't a battle over cutting spending though.
You are correct it is also about raising revenue. This is much more than ACA they are looking for some compromise on the budget fight to come. You don't want to budge on ACA, you want revenue, then broaden the discussion to the "grand bargain". Boehner is going to be a much better negotiation partner than Eric Cantor.

If they seriously take issue with parts of the law, like the tax on medical equipment, then they should discuss with the Dems and the Senate other ways to raise funds for the law. Instead they have taken a partisan, all or nothing approach that they know they can't win. That's not doing their job.

But it is their mandate. Their tea party constituency has put them into that situation. The tea party strength is not in governance but in what they view as results (the absence of government). That is not to say that they would not be willing to negotiation as long as you have something to give them for what will be seen as a betrayal of their mandate.

(note government shutdowns have been used by House Democrats 14 times and House Republicans 3 times)

This isn't a matter of an intractable President. To say both sides share blame is a false equivalence in this situation. The ACA is law. It's done. The President and the Dems aren't holding the government hostage to change the law, which was passed and upheld by all branches of government. Only the Republicans are doing that.

What the Republicans have sent to the Senate did not argue that the ACA should not be law only that the standard for the individual should the same as businesses. An optional waiver would not stop people from enrolling today or un-enroll those who signed up. It would only extend the time given to individuals to find coverage a privilege which the President unilaterally gave to businesses.

However; it still appears the shutdown's major objective continues to be leverage for Fiscal Cliff 2 Electric Bugaboo. There are 16 days its time to roll the two together and get it done.
 
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Just remember that Obama won the big election. Twice.
 
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You are correct it is also about raising revenue. This is much more than ACA they are looking for some compromise on the budget fight to come. You don't want to budge on ACA, you want revenue, then broaden the discussion to the "grand bargain". Boehner is going to be a much better negotiation partner than Eric Cantor.

What revenue do you refer to and why do you think this fight is about revenue? Boehner suggested passing a CR and holding the debt ceiling up over the same ACA fight and his party blasted him for it (they want to hold up the budget). No one in the GOP is standing on the House floor and talking about raising or cutting revenue.

But it is their mandate. Their tea party constituency has put them into that situation. The tea party strength is not in governance but in what they view as results (the absence of government). That is not to say that they would not be willing to negotiation as long as you have something to give them for what will be seen as a betrayal of their mandate.

The tea party is a minority of the House Republicans. Meanwhile, executing the ACA is Obama's mandate, and he won two national elections by wide margins.

What the Republicans have sent to the Senate did not argue that the ACA should not be law only that the standard for the individual should the same as businesses. An optional waiver would not stop people from enrolling today or un-enroll those who signed up. It would only extend the time given to individuals to find coverage a privilege which the President unilaterally gave to businesses.

And that has nothing to do with the federal budget. The GOP has had 4 years to deal with this issue and they've failed to get anywhere because they've been focused on repealing parts or all of the ACA when they obviously couldn't come close to doing that.

However; it still appears the shutdown's major objective continues to be leverage for Fiscal Cliff 2 Electric Bugaboo. There are 16 days its time to roll the two together and get it done.

I don't know what anyone hopes to get out of that.
 
What revenue do you refer to and why do you think this fight is about revenue? Boehner suggested passing a CR and holding the debt ceiling up over the same ACA fight and his party blasted him for it (they want to hold up the budget). No one in the GOP is standing on the House floor and talking about raising or cutting revenue.

My point is that it is inclusive to revenue which Republicans are willing to give into in order to achieve victories in cutting the budget. Boehner proposed a Republican plan that included $2.2 trillion in deficit cuts over a decade. Revenue to the tune of$800 billion would be generated mainly by reducing tax expenditures i.e. loopholes. This was the original proposal to advert the Fiscal Cliff which acted was leverage to reform entitlement programs. The President blew this up by demanding Boehner add an additional $400 billion to his revenue concession. The result was several piecemeal legislation that resulted in Sequestration. The Republican leadership are sitting in a room for a photo shoot claiming to negotiate. As you say ACA is already the law with what would they negotiate with? The President has not even sent a representative to hear what they have to negotiate on. The Republicans have offered another piecemeal deal to fund specific branches the WH has said it will veto it. The Republicans are looking to paint the WH and Democrats into a corner by exhausting all other options to say why not a "grand bargain".

The tea party is a minority of the House Republicans. Meanwhile, executing the ACA is Obama's mandate, and he won two national elections by wide margins.

Just remember that Obama won the big election. Twice.

Because of the weakening of John Boehner the tea party caucus are stronger and have taken a leadership role on this. Yes Obama won the Presidency, and yes won re-election. However those in the house won election as well and they are not impressed by a victory propelled by voters that can not vote in their district. The Republican party looks at the data of the presidential election and sees that it increased its share of voters. There is loads of time before they have to worry about national voters and over a year before midterms. Simply put the relevance of an election last year is meaningless to them.

The GOP has had 4 years to deal with this issue and they've failed to get anywhere because they've been focused on repealing parts or all of the ACA when they obviously couldn't come close to doing that.

Really they only had 2 and a quarter years. They did not get majority until after the ACA passed and they got that majority for large part because of the backlash against the ACA. When they did get into office the WH pushed away from the discussion of the budget to avoid talking about the ACA. When the gridlock got too bad to stand the President brought Boehner in for the "Nicotine and Merlot Talks" he played hard ball with the numbers and the delicate balance of the politics of the possible fell apart.

I don't know what anyone hopes to get out of that.

Read Bob Woodward's The Price of Politics it has some excellent interviews with Boehner, Cantor, and WH insiders.
 
The laundry list that the GOP is asking for in order to get a mere six to eight more weeks of Gov't funding is pretty much a do over of the 2008 and 2012 elections.

That is not negotiating in good faith.

Right now you have 49 Tea party members who represent roughly 7 percent of the US population holding up the Gov't over a law that jumped through as many hoops as could be imagined. I think Boehner could get a clean CR passed easily with moderate Republicans and the Dems. If he does that though it is probably the end of his Speakership and he is too chickenshit to go for it. Also you could end up with someone even worse as speaker. Personally I think the moderate House Republicans, the small few that there are should get together with the Dems and hold a coup. Tell Boehner we will support you in a floor vote for speaker if you take a clean CR to the table that actually funds the gov't for a significant portion of time. If you wont' do it we will vote you out and vote in another Republican as speaker. Yes that would be guaranteed primary challenges for all the Reps that did it but I think some of them would survive or they could take a shot at running as an independent.

You can say that this is really about the budget but that is just frankly a lie. The GOP and specifically the Tea party wing of the GOP has made this all about the ACA. The CR that the senate put out is already a compromise very close to the original Ryan budget.

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http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...publicans-already-won-on-the-cr-in-one-graph/

The senate asked for conference committees over and over six months ago to work out an agreement on the budget and the House rejected them all. They bought into the crazy that this would work and I really think it is just going to kill them. People were ambivalent about the ACA, most polls track support as slightly negative but when asked about individual parts of law they are very positive, and he GOP had a chance to really make hay out over every little hiccup in getting the exchanges. Now instead of doing that over the next few days you are going to see poll after poll that shows Americans do not like the idea of one small minority of the minority party shutting down the Gov't in a Quixotian attempt to kill a law that the Supreme court upheld.


I got all the district data from here

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjYj9mXElO_QdHZCbzJocGtxYkR6OTdZbzZwRUFvS3c#gid=0

I had to estimate population for districts as of course census.gov is down and not all districts had population data at other sources. I used 650,000 as an estimate for the population data of districts that I could not quickly find data for.
 
The laundry list that the GOP is asking for in order to get a mere six to eight more weeks of Gov't funding is pretty much a do over of the 2008 and 2012 elections. That is not negotiating in good faith.

House Resolution 59 was seven (7) pages of text. It hardly qualifies as a laundry list. If you read it there is only one thing that the Obama Administration finds onerous: DELAY IN APPLICATION OF INDIVIDUAL HEALTH INSURANCE MANDATE.?Section 5000A(a) of the Internal Revenue Code of 1986 is amended by striking ??2013?? and inserting ??2014??.

Right now you have 49 Tea party members who represent roughly 7 percent of the US population holding up the Gov't over a law that jumped through as many hoops as could be imagined.

Yes; the Tea Party Caucus took the lead on this. However; H. Res. 368 which took from the Speakers table H. Res. 59 for approval of the Senate required more than just the Tea Party, but the majority of the Republican Party and 9 Democrats who broke ranks saying there was nothing wrong with negotiating from H. Res. 59. It does nothing to hold up the ACA nor changes its major achievements. Today people began enrolling in the ACA. Do you think people will stop just because they can go longer without health insurance?

Personally I think the moderate House Republicans, the small few that there are should get together with the Dems and hold a coup. Tell Boehner we will support you in a floor vote for speaker if you take a clean CR to the table that actually funds the gov't for a significant portion of time. If you wont' do it we will vote you out and vote in another Republican as speaker. Yes that would be guaranteed primary challenges for all the Reps that did it but I think some of them would survive or they could take a shot at running as an independent.

Boehner is already planning his retirement so I don't think he would be that bothered by the threat. I don't know of any Republican who could pull it off in regards to become Speaker and keep it for any amount of time by stabbing Boehner in the back and then siding with the Democrats. Perhaps you know a Representative with a safe seat not in leadership who is not on board with the shutdown I do not. All of that aside what do Republicans get for passing a "clean" or "Obama" continuing resolution. There is no incentive for cooperation in these scenarios. So you are suggesting that they try to do what Arlen Specter couldn't pull off become a traitor and stay in office.

You can say that this is really about the budget but that is just frankly a lie. The GOP and specifically the Tea party wing of the GOP has made this all about the ACA.

Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) said Tuesday that the best way for Congress to resolve the standoff over the government shutdown is to tie the matter to the looming fight over raising the debt ceiling. source

Now instead of doing that over the next few days you are going to see poll after poll that shows Americans do not like the idea of one small minority of the minority party shutting down the Gov't in a Quixotian attempt to kill a law that the Supreme court upheld.

It is dismissive in calling it the minority of the minority party because its the the Majority of the House of Representatives who passed a bi-partisan continuing resolution that the President likes with the exception to a minority of the language. What is more perverse is it can't kill the law, it doesn't attempt to kill the law, and only makes individuals receive the same consideration that the President unilaterally gave to businesses.
 
The laundry list is more related to the debt ceiling which is the real fight and the one that can cause real permanent damage to the country.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/27/u...list-conditions-for-raising-debt-ceiling.html

The above is the long not so biased version.

Below is the short very biased version.


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The shut down fight honestly doesn't matter in the long run. A debt ceiling breach matters.

As for a relatively safe Rep who might be able to pull it off. What about Charlie Dent?

Pennsylvania 15 R+2 Charles Dent R* 128,764 168,960 0 43.25% 56.75% 0.00% -40,196 x Romney


He won election overwhelmingly yet his district is only R+2 according to Cook Political report so he obviously had a lot of independent support.. He has already been challenging the leadership along with Peter King. Peter King is higher profile but is kind of a nut job in his own right with a lot of quasi-racist to out right racist statements.



It sets a dangerous precedent that a handful of the majority minority party can either force changes to a law or scrap a law that they don't like through economic blackmail. They had their chance over three elections to get things changed and couldn't pull it off.



The current Senate CR is only roughly two percent away from Ryan's latest budget. I say again to call this a budget fight is a lie. The GOP already got more in budget cuts then they were asking for in 2011.
 
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The laundry list is more related to the debt ceiling which is the real fight and the one that can cause real permanent damage to the country.

The shut down fight honestly doesn't matter in the long run. A debt ceiling breach matters.

I am happy that more people have come over to my way of thinking that this has less to do with the ACA than it does with a debt ceiling deal. I posted this concept at 10:20 hours before Paul Ryan made this intention public. The NYT article does a good job outlining what is desired but noting that congress knows its not all going to happen or be easy. The idea that the Republican wish list is their final offer simply ignores how negotiation works. The rhetoric is turned way too high for what has been done before. The last time we had Fiscal Cliff negotiations we ended up with Sequestration(something everyone agrees sucks) which is what this continuing resolution would extend. If they sat down they might be able to get to the same deal they had with Boehner: $2.2 trillion in deficit cuts over a decade, $800 Billion in new revenue, and strategic reform rather than Sequestration's across the board cuts.

The alternative to this is stop the shutdown by moving forward with H. Res. 59. Lets call this alternative the "Shoot the Hostage" plan (remember that movie SPEED). Removing the hostage from the Republicans by allowing the ACA penalty delay; after all, the marketplace is open, people are enrolling. Remove the power from the Republicans before the Fiscal Cliff.


It sets a dangerous precedent that a handful of the majority minority party can either force changes to a law or scrap a law that they don't like through economic blackmail. They had their chance over three elections to get things changed and couldn't pull it off.

The idea that H. Res. 59 is to scrap the law is simply overblown rhetoric. It changes one portion relating to penalties that the President unilaterally changed for businesses this July. If anyone set a precedent it would be the administration in changing the ACA. However; as you noted the negotiation strategy is not on the ACA, it is on the deficit and putting together a budget from a place of power. This is the way American democracy works the President does not just get to rule carte blanche.
 
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Oh its still about the ACA. It is just the public wedge item that get grassroots conservatives fired up. I don't think most of those people really understand what the debt ceiling is as it is obvious many tea party reps do not understand it.


The ACA uses the three legs of a stool analogy to work.

Leg one various insurance reforms to get rid of preexisting conditions, life time caps, wellness, even costs between men and women etc.

Leg two subsidies so that people who can't afford health insurance can buy it and the very poor can get in under expanded medicaid

leg three individual mandate.


http://britishrover.wordpress.com/2...dable-care-act-or-obamacare-will-create-jobs/


http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2010/08/pdf/repealing_reform.pdf

The law doesn't work without all three. The employer mandate is not as big a deal as most employers already offer insurance even if it is pretty crappy. For example I can $1,200 plus dollars a year in premiums by switching to an exchange plan over my employer plan and still have a lower deductible.



Even if the individual mandate wasn't so important cutting out one portion of the law for a whole year to get less then 60 days on the CR is insane. No one would agree to that imbalanced of a compromise.
 
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