Middle East and North Africa Unrest

[WillDAQ]

In the end success can be placed in the hands of direct British military intervention.

Hope you're not expecting one of those this time, we can probably spare you a jet, a land rover and a dinghy but everything else is busy.

 

[nomix]

Let us hope then that the U.N. does not bungle Libya like they did the operation in Sierra Leone. Then again when one deploys third world soldiers, as composed the U.N. force, failure should not be surprising. One does wonder who thought it was a good idea to deploy Jordanian soldiers in a tropical African country. In the end success can be placed in the hands of direct British military intervention.

The U.N. is a poor force to use on the offensive and that is something that may be required in Libya.

They need a mandate to do something, not just observe.

Hope you're not expecting one of those this time, we can probably spare you a jet, a land rover and a dinghy but everything else is busy.

A couple of SLR's perhaps. And a couple of Vickers mk1 tanks.

 

[Gyvon]

The U.N. is a poor force to use on the offensive and that is something that may be required in Libya.

Let's face it, the UN sucks at military action. They rely too much on the US Armed Forces to get anything done themselves.

 

[MacGuffin]

Yet it is the only institution, which decisions are respected everywhere. I'm not saying they should send U.N. soldiers to fight down Ghaddafi -- that would be nonsense -- but if the USA and Europe decide to go all military against the "son of the desert", it should better be with the OK of the world community.

 

[hajj]

Yet it is the only institution, which decisions are respected everywhere.

Have you heard about a country named Israel? I guess not

 

[MacGuffin]

It would be really funny to watch what happens, if Israel helps with military forces to free the Maghreb and maybe the Arabian world

No, better leave them where they are.

 

[Heathrow]

Yet it is the only institution, which decisions are respected everywhere. I'm not saying they should send U.N. soldiers to fight down Ghaddafi -- that would be nonsense -- but if the USA and Europe decide to go all military against the "son of the desert", it should better be with the OK of the world community.

Well, this is interesting political idea, though probably not going to happen.

Aljazeera News ? Arabs may impose Libya no fly zone

The Arab League has said it may impose a "no fly" zone on Libya in co-ordination with the African Union if fighting continues in Libya.

Wednesday?s Arab League ministers' meeting in Cairo rejected any direct outside military intervention in Libya, where Muammar Gaddafi is trying to put down a revolt threatening his four decades in power. They reiterated their condemnation of his use of force.

The Arab resolution called on the Libyan government to respond to the "legitimate demands of the Libyan people" and to stop bloodshed. The Libyan authorities must lift restrictions on media and mobile networks and allow the delivery of aid.

The Arab League demanded "the preservation of the unity of Libyan lands and civil peace" -- similar to the language it used in the run-up to the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003.

Continues

The Arab League also suspended Libya and sided with the Libyan people.

* * *

BBC News ? UK and France to fly Egyptians from Tunisia

Britain and France are sending several planes to help repatriate tens of thousands of Egyptians fleeing the violence in Libya.

The UN refugee agency UNHCR says "acres of people", many from Egypt, are now stranded in chaotic conditions at the Tunisian border.

Local resources are swamped and aid agencies have declared a humanitarian emergency

Continues

Every little helps: Egypt sent 31 aircraft yesterday, but an Egyptian friend of mine told me there were about 1.5 million migrant workers in Libya, though not all of them are trapped in Tripoli and the west.

* * *

BBC News ? Libya rebels halt Gaddafi attack

Rebel forces have fought off an attempt by soldiers loyal to Col Muammar Gaddafi to retake the eastern oil town of Brega.

Gaddafi forces had moved into eastern areas for the first time since towns there fell to protesters two weeks ago.

Continues

This was arguably, the first action in a civil war. Up until now demos of ?unarmed? protesters have scared away local Police and Army units.

I had sort of hoped that Gaddafi would have gone before any of this happened.

The Rebels did win the day, with light casualties and came away with the impression that ?Big G?s? Army & soldiers are not really up for a fight, whereas the Rebels clearly are.

 

[nomix]

Have you heard about a country named Israel? I guess not

Israel, Iran, China, North Korea. Just the first four that pops into my head.

 

[Gyvon]

Yet it is the only institution, which decisions are respected everywhere. I'm not saying they should send U.N. soldiers to fight down Ghaddafi -- that would be nonsense -- but if the USA and Europe decide to go all military against the "son of the desert", it should better be with the OK of the world community.

Don't get me wrong, the UN is great for situations that can be handled with peaceful discussion. But when shit needs blowing up, they either can't get the job done or waffle for so long that nothing gets done (see: Rwanda Genocide).

 

[MacGuffin]

I totally agree. All I wanna say is: These conflicts must be handled with care -- and that is not exactly something the USA are famous for.

You might not have noticed but we are currently at a crossroads, where the whole future of the Islamic world could be decided, including the future of islamic extremism and terrorism. This needs wisely foresight and military intervention of the West should be the last of options, no matter how much the oil supply is in danger.

 

[Nocturnal]

Hope you're not expecting one of those this time, we can probably spare you a jet, a land rover and a dinghy but everything else is busy.

Apart from half a dozen Typhoon squadrons.

 

[WillDAQ]

Apart from half a dozen Typhoon squadrons.

We have 8 pilots. Two are capable of ground attack missions.

 

[Cobol74]

Probably do not have any fuel, or weapons that actually go bang due to cost savings. We could outsource it to India I suppose?

 

[WillDAQ]

A Dutch navy helicopter crew have been shown on Libyan state TV after being captured while attempting to evacuate two foreign citizens.

The TV showed the three-strong crew, their Lynx helicopter and weapons, saying they had entered Libyan air space "in breach of international law".

Dutch officials say the helicopter was captured on Sunday near Sirte while trying to fly out two Europeans.

Talks are under way to free the crew, who are two men and one woman.

They had landed near Sirte, a port city in central Libya under the control of government forces, to carry out a "consular evacuation", the Dutch defence ministry said.

An armed Libyan unit captured them along with the two evacuees - a Dutch national and another, unidentified European - who were later released by the Libyan authorities and left the country.

The Dutch defence ministry has been in contact with the crew who were "doing well under the circumstances", a Dutch spokesman said on Thursday.

They had flown into Libya from the Dutch warship Tromp, which is anchored off the coast.
Machine gun Footage shown by Libyan TV, which cannot be verified, shows the three crew members sitting in an office with Libyans and sipping canned drinks.

A helicopter with Dutch naval markings can be seen parked on sand as gunmen cheer and wave their weapons around it.

When a heavy machine gun and belt of bullets are displayed, an on-screen caption in Arabic says: "According to the [Saudi-backed] broadcaster al-Arabiya, this helicopter was sent to rescue people, but we can see something else here.

"The helicopter flew into Libyan airspace and landed in Sirte without any permission from the authorities and this is in violation of international law."

Assault rifles, dollar notes, notebooks, pistols, mobile phones, bullets and ammunition, military-fatigue body armour, inflatable life jackets and a Sony digital camera are also shown off in the video.

Radio Netherlands Worldwide reports that the Dutch national whose evacuation the crew had been trying to complete was handed over to the Dutch embassy and is now back in the Netherlands.

He had been working for the Dutch engineering company Royal Haskoning.
'Everything being done' Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte said news of the crew's capture had been kept quiet initially to assist the talks on their release.

"It is terrible for the crew of the Lynx helicopter," he said. "Everything is being done to make sure the crew get home."

The Tromp, which was initially to have taken part in an anti-piracy operation off Somalia, headed for the Libyan coast on 24 February.

Initial reports talked of "marines" being captured but an official statement posted later on the defence ministry's website describes the captives as a naval helicopter crew.
The port city of Sirte is considered the main remaining stronghold of Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi in the centre of the country, as he struggles with a spreading revolt against his rule.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-12645675

How did we get 6 C130s in and out, yet the dutch fail with one of the most maneuverable helicopters ever made.

 

[hajj]

Desert vs city? Also they did not bring a special forces team to win a possible gun fight. It is quite an embarrassment, but I was surprised that the dutch took on such a high-risk mission.

 

[Nocturnal]

We have 8 pilots. Two are capable of ground attack missions.

I'm pretty sure you've just made that up.

The reason Typhoon is 'unpopular' among pilots at the moment is because of the number of them who are trained to fly it; this means flying hours on the squadrons are relatively low, particularly in comparison to Tornado. The turnaround of 29sqn is very high. We also have a number of US pilots (largely from F15 backgrounds) who both instruct and fly as part of the squadrons.

For a start, we hold a QRA readiness in 3 locations, which means 6 pilots are on constant stand-by. Are you really saying you think we only have an extra 2 pilots?

Also, this Ground-Attack readiness which has been in the media lately is utter nonsense. The writer of the piece stipulates that Typhoon isn't GR ready because it isn't compatible with Storm Shadow or Meteor. What they haven't realised is that Storm Shadow is a very specific piece of equipment, and that the Meteor is still in development; the Tornado isn't compatible with it, either.

If Libya decide they want to bring the fight, the UK is just as ready as the US is to eliminate the air threat.

 

[Heathrow]

Sky News ? Libya: Protesters Killed As Army Opens Fire (Zawiyah)
(Includes an Audio Report from Alex Crawford of Sky News)

Dozens of people have been killed and many more injured after the army opened fire on protesters in the Libyan city of Zawiyah, according to reports.

It is thought pro-Gaddafi forces entered the city and fired at protesters, who returned fire.

A number of people were shot, including a rebel commander who was killed.

This set off another march by thousands of people, many of them unarmed, who were subsequently shot at by the military, using rocket-propelled grenades and sniper fire.
Continues

Brave, but really stupid. Over a thousand protesters went to march in the town only 50kms from Tripoli surrounded by Gaddafi forces. ?About six or less? were armed ?with Ak-47s?, the protest was led by a pickup truck with a anti-aircraft gun on the back.

The Army or militia units opened up and killed around 30 people and wounded dozens more.

Surely better not to be armed at all, than insufficiently armed. (Gaddafi's Forces have an excuse to shoot at you if armed.)

* * *

Better news for the Rebels over in the east of the country.

BBC News ? Libyan rebels battle for oil port Ras Lanuf (Video Report)

Libyan rebels have defied their commanders in Benghazi to begin a battle for oil port Ras Lanuf, as the continue in their struggle to take control of the country from Col Muammar Gaddafi.

The Libyan army is reported to have used helicopters and artillery fire after the rebels attacked a military base on the outskirts of the city.

John Simpson reports.

After beating back Gaddafi?s forces yesterday at Al Brega, irregular forces today moved on to Al Agayla before fighting in outskirts of Ras Lanuf at sundown. If the Rebels have taken this town, the second Oil Terminal Port captured in three days, this will be a major morale boost and will leave Gaddafi?s home town of Sirte next along the coast.

* * *

BBC News ? Libyan currency worth $162m seized by UK Authorities

Libyan currency worth ?100m ($162m; 200m Libyan dinars) has been impounded from a ship, the Home Office has said.

The ship was intercepted by UK authorities after heading back to British waters following an aborted attempt to dock at Tripoli.

The money, which was printed in north-east England and impounded at Harwich, has been taken to a secure location.
Continues

* * *

Around the region after Friday prayers and the start of the weekend, various protests were held today in Bahrain, Iraq, Egypt, Yemen, Jordan, Iran, Oman and Tunisia.

Aljazeera News ? Middle East Protests

 

[WillDAQ]

I'm pretty sure you've just made that up.

Indeed I am:

The RAF currently has eight pilots who are capable of undertaking ground attack missions on Typhoon

We have two capable of carrying out both the air and ground roles in the aircraft.

the NAO reports that of the 70 Eurofighters the RAF currently possesses, just 42 are actually available to flying squadrons.

http://www.nao.org.uk/publications/1011/management_of_typhoon_project.aspx

 

[Nocturnal]

Just before we undertake this little dance, I actually live/work at RAF Coninsgby; home of 3sqn (Typhoon), 11sqn (Typhoon), 17sqn (Typhoon) and 29sqn (Stealth...no I'm joking, it's Typhoon).

Some points to note from your link:

The cost of each Typhoon aircraft has risen by 75 per cent

Isn't true.

it won?t take on all roles until 2018.

Is true, but isn't reported particularly well. Typhoon isn't designed to take on certain roles (such as the ones Storm Shadow and Meteor are used for) until that time.

Note how it later shifts to this quote:

However, it is unlikely to become the aircraft of choice for most ground attack missions until 2018

Also, as it expands on the point about cost:

The cost of the Typhoon project has risen substantially. Despite the MOD?s now buying 72 fewer aircraft (down from 232 to 160, a reduction of 30 per cent), the forecast development and production cost has risen by 20 per cent to ?20.2 billion.

What it has failed to specify is where these costs come from, and they're certainly not from the aicraft. We have a specially-built Typhoon Maintenance Facility, which can house a dozen Typhoon aircraft for periodic maintenance at any one time. This has been factored into the 'development and production cost' mentioned in the report, as have the Training Facility, and other upgrades to the Typhoon capability of the Station which would have been carried out regardless of the aircraft.

There have also been problems with spares and other support which mean the RAF is not flying Typhoon as much as planned.

Pure fabrication. I actually noted as I was in the TMF last week that for the last month, there was a proud notice from BAE stating that no Typhoon flying hours had been lost as a result of support/spares.

And, for your final point:

just 42 are actually available to flying squadrons

Firstly, although I'm struggling to find anything concrete to validate this point, I'm almost sure we have more Typhoons than that at Coninsgby alone, let alone Leuchars or the Falklands.

Secondly, I remember asking one of the pilots how capable these aircraft were. His reply to me was that if we were to go back in time to the Falklands, then just one of these aircraft appropriately armed would have gained air superiority in a single sortie. My favourite quote was someone describing them as 'Chuck Norris with wings'.

Nostalgia aside, "only" 42 is still more than enough to maintain our QRA commitment, and carry out any Operational requirements.

Finally, your number of pilots is very, very wrong.

 

[WillDAQ]

While i'd agree that Lewis Page (author of that Register article) is a prat. The pilot numbers, costs etc. are taken from a report by the National Audit Office. The NAO have quite a history of cutting through the conspiracy of optimism found in the MoD and getting to the hard facts.

Some points to note from your link: "The cost of each Typhoon aircraft has risen by 75 per cent"

Isn't true.

Take total program cost and divide by number of aircraft delivered for the original contract and the current state of affairs. Even allowing for inflation the costs have skyrocketed.

Is true, but isn't reported particularly well. Typhoon isn't designed to take on certain roles (such as the ones Storm Shadow and Meteor are used for) until that time.

Yeah, and MBDA are the ones having to slow both projects down year after year because Typhoon is STILL not ready to receive them. Meteor was ready 6 years ago but isn't going to be in use for another 7.

What it has failed to specify is where these costs come from, and they're certainly not from the aicraft. We have a specially-built Typhoon Maintenance Facility, which can house a dozen Typhoon aircraft for periodic maintenance at any one time. This has been factored into the 'development and production cost' mentioned in the report, as have the Training Facility, and other upgrades to the Typhoon capability of the Station which would have been carried out regardless of the aircraft.

Yes, you see this is an MoD classic. Nobody cares what the actual cost breakdown is, fundamentally it's how many aircraft do we get vs. how much did we spend.. the total cost per aircraft. Incidentally on that front each Typhoon cost more than an F22 Raptor.

Pure fabrication. I actually noted as I was in the TMF last week that for the last month, there was a proud notice from BAE stating that no Typhoon flying hours had been lost as a result of support/spares.

On this note I trust the NAO far more than BAe.

Nostalgia aside, "only" 42 is still more than enough to maintain our QRA commitment, and carry out any Operational requirements.

That's all very well and good, but right now operation requirements seems to be a couple of jets in the Falklands and the airshow circuit. What we really need from Typhoon is for it to be taking over from Tornado in Afghanistan, however decades of delays and overruns mean that old fleets that we really need to be shedding to save cash have to soldier on, while the pretty boy of the RAF continues to flounce around avoiding the real work.

His reply to me was that if we were to go back in time to the Falklands, then just one of these aircraft appropriately armed would have gained air superiority in a single sortie. My favourite quote was someone describing them as 'Chuck Norris with wings'.

I can do better than that, a senior engineer at BAe once informed me that the Typhoon could take on F15 2 against 1 and the F22 1 against 2. Sounds really impressive until you realise the TCO of each aircraft is greater than that of the F22 and the F15 is a 35 year old aircraft. The harrier was never designed as full fat fighter aircraft but even that gained aerial dominance. It's also true that once Meteor is in service it isn't really going to matter how agile your aircraft is as the missile will do all the work.