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    Middle East and North Africa Unrest



    Originally posted by BBC News
    # Serious anti-government protests in the capital Tripoli and elsewhere are putting Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi's regime under mounting pressure.

    # Several senior officials and diplomats - including the justice minister - have reportedly defected after security forces fired on protesters.

    # In a nationwide TV broadcast on Sunday, one of Col Gaddafi's sons, Saif al-Islam, admitted two eastern cities had been taken over by anti-government demonstrators.

    # The BBC's Jon Leyne in neighbouring Egypt says Col Gaddafi has now lost the support of almost every section of society.






    * * *
    One regional analyst stated today that those countries with royalty would likely remain so and could become a constitutional monarchy. However, those countries with Dictators were unable to do this and have to go as Egypt is going.
    Last edited by Heathrow; February 21st, 2011, 10:31 PM.

    #2
    Perhaps we should pitch in.

    "I saw myself founding a new religion, marching
    into Asia riding an elephant, a turban on my
    head and in my hands the new Koran I would
    have written to suit my needs." - Napoléon Bonaparte

    "More than 60,000 Germans fell, not beneath the
    Roman arms and weapons, but, grander far,
    before our delighted eyes. May the tribes, I pray,
    ever retain if not love for us, at least hatred for
    each other; for while the destinies of empire bear
    hard upon us, fortune can give no greater boon
    than discord among our foes." - Germania, Tacitus

    Comment


      #3
      Yeah, that would be awsome. Unify the Libyan people against a (percieved or real) foreign threat. Great.

      Please, keep your neocon bullshit out of this. It does not work.
      "If you're not getting the picture you want, you're not close enough" - Robert Capa
      "Your first 14000 pictures are your worst" - HCB
      - David Bailey! Who's he?!
      I am one of "the two most level headed and pragmatic regular posters on the politics forum" according to anonymous sources.
      blog
      Bustin' chops since the late 80s

      Comment


        #4
        It would depend on what hand we played. Boots on the group intervention would be inadvisable but air support in the form of fighters that would be used to deny the Libyan air force the ability to kill its own people could be in our interests.
        "I saw myself founding a new religion, marching
        into Asia riding an elephant, a turban on my
        head and in my hands the new Koran I would
        have written to suit my needs." - Napoléon Bonaparte

        "More than 60,000 Germans fell, not beneath the
        Roman arms and weapons, but, grander far,
        before our delighted eyes. May the tribes, I pray,
        ever retain if not love for us, at least hatred for
        each other; for while the destinies of empire bear
        hard upon us, fortune can give no greater boon
        than discord among our foes." - Germania, Tacitus

        Comment


          #5
          As long as there's no bombing, perhaps. But it's still a very big risk to take, you would be running a real risk of just pissing off normal Libyans. It's not relevant what it is, it's what it looks like. And just one whisper of invation, and the desert telegraph will make it common knowledge in a day.

          It's just too risky.
          "If you're not getting the picture you want, you're not close enough" - Robert Capa
          "Your first 14000 pictures are your worst" - HCB
          - David Bailey! Who's he?!
          I am one of "the two most level headed and pragmatic regular posters on the politics forum" according to anonymous sources.
          blog
          Bustin' chops since the late 80s

          Comment


            #6
            Actually, and I can't believe I'm agreeing with jetsetter on something, but if there was some way of doing an airstrike accurately and if it was agreed properly and quickly via correct diplomatic channels in the UN then it would probably help the situation.

            I'm not talking invasion, I'm talking about getting rid of someone who is ordering his own army to kill his citizens and hiring outside mercs to help them do it.
            As I grew older, I wanted to become like Jeremy Clarkson. Unfortunately, it appears that I'm turning into James May. On the plus side, I know that at least I can drive better than Richard Hammond.

            Comment


              #7
              If, as reports have suggested, he isn't already sharing a cold one with Chavez in Vevezuela.
              WillDAQ: To use the technical terms: "the Mustang is to aerodynamics what horse shit is to fine dining"

              Dr Grip: Brilliant!

              EyeMWing Because what fun is a silicone dick if you don't try putting it in somebody's backside at least once.

              Jay IKEA now ranks up in my awesome list, quite near bacon and blowjobs.

              Cowboy I've never gotten so drunk I wanted to rub one out while shoving a fire extinguisher up my ass.



              Remind me never to have him round to dinner!

              www.mattonmotors.com/ @MattOnMotors

              Comment


                #8
                The middle east unrest is something the US needs to stay the fuck out of. So far nothing the US govt. has said or done has actually been helpful.

                The fingerprints of the CIA (and in particular Frank Wisner Sr., the son of whom got fired for suggested the US needed to support Mubarak) are all over these regimes and any interference will not have the desired effect. The idea of invading the sovereignty of a nation's airspace as a show of solidarity is idiotic.

                There is an irony in that most of the methods being used by these protesters were compiled by US academic Dr. Gene Sharp, so in reality the US is having a huge effect... but few of the protesters are aware of that and to quote the article:

                When I pointed out that these non-violent weapons were the writings of an American academic he protested strongly. "This is an Egyptian revolution", he said. "We are not being told what to do by the Americans."
                That's not to say that we should be ignoring the changes occurring, David Cameron took the risky step of visiting Egypt and it seems to have paid off. However, the US is by it's very nature a political heavy weight incapable of subtlety, now is not the time for it to be stomping around. Once these nations have stable democracies, that's the point the US should be rolling out the pomp and circumstance to welcome them into the fold of democracy.

                Comment


                  #9
                  One possiblity would be to airdrop some stingers to the protesters, with some added AK-47s (US provide the stingers, Russians provide the AK's, going Dutch), when that's done, and Gadaffi is gone, I'll pop in with a bottle of my home brew to explain how nice a monarch can be for a young nation.
                  "If you're not getting the picture you want, you're not close enough" - Robert Capa
                  "Your first 14000 pictures are your worst" - HCB
                  - David Bailey! Who's he?!
                  I am one of "the two most level headed and pragmatic regular posters on the politics forum" according to anonymous sources.
                  blog
                  Bustin' chops since the late 80s

                  Comment


                    #10
                    I remember the United States followed had a similar idea in the 80s nomix, but I can't for the life of me remember how successful that turned out to be.


                    Mathematics is to physics as masturbation is to sex.

                    Comment


                      #11
                      Indeed. Thing is, that's what WOULD be effective. A child can use a Stinger. And it will take down a Mirage or a MiG-25 easily (let alone a chopper). Same goes for an AK, especially good at dealing with other people using AK's.

                      They would have their own revolution, and the west wouldn't be seen as imperialists (which ANY air strike might easily do). Problem is that there are some elements in Libya that probably shouldn't have their own Stingers...

                      "If you're not getting the picture you want, you're not close enough" - Robert Capa
                      "Your first 14000 pictures are your worst" - HCB
                      - David Bailey! Who's he?!
                      I am one of "the two most level headed and pragmatic regular posters on the politics forum" according to anonymous sources.
                      blog
                      Bustin' chops since the late 80s

                      Comment


                        #12
                        Referring you to my earlier article, combat will not work. Regimes can easily suppress violent protests by likening them to terrorism. For success the protesters have to remain non-violent.

                        Dropping weapons to protesters is exactly the sort of douchebag fratboy type thing that will ensure any coup fails. It's the sort of strategy that the US has been using to fuck up coups for the past 70 years and is what lead to such a prevalence of dictators in the first place.

                        Stop trying to turn the real world into a Hollywood action movie.
                        Last edited by WillDAQ; February 22nd, 2011, 12:50 PM.

                        Comment


                          #13
                          The issue will be wether ot not the protesters know how to use weapons. I'm willing to bet quite a lot of them have been conscripts.

                          I generally speaking agree. However, the difference is that Gadaffi is using his Air Force to fight the demonstrators. If it's alloved to continue, there'll be no demonstrators left.

                          I guess we'll have to hope the army changes sides completely and grab some RPG's to get those fighters down.
                          "If you're not getting the picture you want, you're not close enough" - Robert Capa
                          "Your first 14000 pictures are your worst" - HCB
                          - David Bailey! Who's he?!
                          I am one of "the two most level headed and pragmatic regular posters on the politics forum" according to anonymous sources.
                          blog
                          Bustin' chops since the late 80s

                          Comment


                            #14
                            Originally posted by nomix View Post
                            The issue will be wether ot not the protesters know how to use weapons. I'm willing to bet quite a lot of them have been conscripts.

                            I generally speaking agree. However, the difference is that Gadaffi is using his Air Force to fight the demonstrators. If it's alloved to continue, there'll be no demonstrators left.

                            I guess we'll have to hope the army changes sides completely and grab some RPG's to get those fighters down.
                            Hehe, good luck trying to hit a Mirage or MIG with a RPG :p Some of their other, newer, hardware on the other hand...

                            Comment


                              #15
                              Indeed. I was thinking more of the Russian hand held SAM devices.

                              Edit: Seems that's been done already. Republika Srpska "army" shot down a Mirage 2000 over Bosnia, and the Iraqis shot down a Tornado during Desert Storm.
                              Last edited by nomix; February 22nd, 2011, 2:22 PM.
                              "If you're not getting the picture you want, you're not close enough" - Robert Capa
                              "Your first 14000 pictures are your worst" - HCB
                              - David Bailey! Who's he?!
                              I am one of "the two most level headed and pragmatic regular posters on the politics forum" according to anonymous sources.
                              blog
                              Bustin' chops since the late 80s

                              Comment


                                #16
                                You were probably thinking of the SA-7, an rpg is worthless for shooting down planes.


                                Mathematics is to physics as masturbation is to sex.

                                Comment


                                  #17
                                  Yup, I was. I'm sick today, cut me some slack, man.
                                  "If you're not getting the picture you want, you're not close enough" - Robert Capa
                                  "Your first 14000 pictures are your worst" - HCB
                                  - David Bailey! Who's he?!
                                  I am one of "the two most level headed and pragmatic regular posters on the politics forum" according to anonymous sources.
                                  blog
                                  Bustin' chops since the late 80s

                                  Comment


                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by nomix View Post
                                    The issue will be wether ot not the protesters know how to use weapons. I'm willing to bet quite a lot of them have been conscripts.
                                    That entirely isn't the issue. This isn't some Hollywood action thriller where a suppressed minority will magically gain advanced military tactics and weapons, rise up and overthrow the bumbling incumbents. The military have to be on side for any chance of success.

                                    I generally speaking agree. However, the difference is that Gadaffi is using his Air Force to fight the demonstrators. If it's alloved to continue, there'll be no demonstrators left.

                                    I guess we'll have to hope the army changes sides completely and grab some RPG's to get those fighters down.
                                    The protesters need the military on side to stand any chance of victory, how is shooting troops, attacking tanks or downing fighters ever going to achieve that? The military has to decide that the protesters have a more just cause than the leadership and refuse to attack them. It's what happened in Egypt and in Libya we've already seen fighters defect to Malta rather than attack protesters. The key is to cause the leadership to isolate themselves from the rest of the government using non-violent means. That's the magic sauce that worked in Egypt and Tunisia, not american guns parachuted to protesters.

                                    Comment


                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by WillDAQ View Post
                                      That entirely isn't the issue. This isn't some Hollywood action thriller where a suppressed minority will magically gain advanced military tactics and weapons, rise up and overthrow the bumbling incumbents. The military have to be on side for any chance of success.

                                      The protesters need the military on side to stand any chance of victory, how is shooting troops, attacking tanks or downing fighters ever going to achieve that? The military has to decide that the protesters have a more just cause than the leadership and refuse to attack them. It's what happened in Egypt and in Libya we've already seen fighters defect to Malta rather than attack protesters. The key is to cause the leadership to isolate themselves from the rest of the government using non-violent means. That's the magic sauce that worked in Egypt and Tunisia, not american guns parachuted to protesters.
                                      Fuck it, I bumbled this one up. My bad. I started thinking like a silly neocon. Don't know why.
                                      "If you're not getting the picture you want, you're not close enough" - Robert Capa
                                      "Your first 14000 pictures are your worst" - HCB
                                      - David Bailey! Who's he?!
                                      I am one of "the two most level headed and pragmatic regular posters on the politics forum" according to anonymous sources.
                                      blog
                                      Bustin' chops since the late 80s

                                      Comment


                                        #20
                                        I was in the same mindset to start with, takes a while to think through the options... on the upside:

                                        The BBC's Jon Leyne, in western Egypt, says the regime now seems to be fighting on multiple fronts, trying to put down the protests and fighting a bitter battle against a growing number of army units that have risen up against the Libyan leader.

                                        A growing number of Libyan diplomats around the world have said they are no longer supporting Col Gaddafi.
                                        It's happening...

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