Now, for the last months, I've been following some idiot conservative from Ohio* who runs his own "political daily" (aka a wordpress blog with Obamabating 'reporting' about college transcripts and so on) on Twitter, arguing from time to time. He's said he'll be calling states "far earlier than the MSM", and he also says he is "staking his reputation as a political analyst" on them.
So I tought I might as well do so myself, albeit just using the common old garden polling available today and previously. So I've started with RCP's Electoral map with Toss Up states greyed. I've added the states that we know will go either direction to a starting number, added them up and put a lot of postit notes on my wall, next to the photo of the pool table carpenters in Damaskus. I've also put the Toss Up states in the middle, between the 'O' and the 'R', and I will be making a prediction about most of the toss ups riiiiight now.
The states under toss up are the following: Florida, Colorado, Michigan, Iowa, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, New Hampshire and Nevada.
Here's my prediction as of 21.34 CET (whatever the hell that is in American, I think it might be 4.34PM):
States going to Romney: North Carolina and Florida
States going to Obama: Colorado, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, New Hampshire and Nevada
States still in play: Iowa and Virginia
That's 44 to Romney, 83 to Obama. It means Obama is winning the election at 284.
Analasys: Obama can win without Ohio (and become historic) if he wins Iowa and Virginia, and lose no other states. Some of these states have been polling weirdly the last couple of days, but I've called them as much on the momentum I've percieved to either direction as one single last poll before election day.
I suppose that by 9.59PM EST, I will be acting like Josh Lyman and calling out for numbers. Wehey!