US of A Presidential Elections 2012

[British_Rover]

That's why he lost. He temped the wrath of whatever high atop the thing.

In Romney's defense setting up a transition takes so much time you have to start working on it before the election to have a chance to finish it in time.

Think about it this way.

1. The other side loves to criticize a slow moving or botched transition. Hell the Republicans tried to create one by keeping nominees from making it through confirmation.

2. The first 100 days are so important that unless you have as much staff pre-positioned before the inauguration you will never get much accomplished.

3. It is only about 80 days from election day to inauguration day so getting things set up makes sense.

Having part of your plans leaked to the internet sucks. Makes me wonder if some IT guy did it on purpose.

Very much so. He even said he only wrote a victory speech.

I was listening to a couple of speech writers on NPR, though I cannot remember which administrations they worked on, and both said that as far as they knew no one prepared a concession speech ahead of time for the campaigns they worked on.

I don't think it is as common as people think. They said that typically a candidate writes his own concession speech and maybe does not do it till after the loss is assured.

Perhaps it is a bit premature to start an Election 2016 thread, but Hillary is ahead in the polls for the Dems.

http://www.politicususa.com/hillary-clinton-dominates-iowa-poll-2016.html

This elections marks my fifth election of correctly guessing both party's nominees ahead of time. The Republican one is easy because historically the Republicans pick the runner up from the previous election cycle's primaries.

Prior to 1976 it was not so simple.

1976 Ford wins over Reagan

1980 Bush Sr. lost to Reagan.

1988 Bush Sr. won and Dole lost

1996 Dole wins over Buchanan and Forbes seeming to screw up the cycle because Bush Jr won in 2000.

Bush Jr. was an obvious winner though because of his father and because his father was seen as a moderate. He shouldn't have won but the ties to his father and playing up his fake bi-partisanship in Texas let him win.

2000 Bush Defeats McCain

2008 McCain defeats Romney.

In 2012 the runner up was Santorum...

I have a hard time saying Santorum will be the 2016 Republican nominee. I guess it depends if they double down or actually start to reflect on what is happening to their party both internally and externally.

 

[SpitfireMK461]

The hierarchy you describe is typical of the GOP, but I think it's ending this next election. There is no way they can run Santorum and win. He can't get the votes with women, he can't get the votes with minorities. If Santorum were nominated, the Dems could run a random guy from a homeless shelter and win.

 

[British_Rover]

Lot of corporate welfare in that military bugert. Can never understand how they blow so much on arvertisied and marketing, like sometimes running four or five cars in a NASCAR race.

We have an all volunteer force so promotion, marketing and PR are important. It is important that we maintain a robust all volunteer force and you are not going to do that without marketing the military. I know that is not what people want to hear but it is the truth. We can have a discussion of how that money is targeted but I think that is micromanaging it a bit too much. NASCAR races are a good demo match for the Army at least in the recent past. I have read some that NASCAR's fan base as aging up but then our whole population is aging up because of the baby boomers.

Go work for a company that fails to market their products properly and see what happens.

Just to name drop again I did have a professor who worked on the original "Be All You Can Be" campaign on both the Army side and private side so I have some insider knowledge.

Ok I gotta ask and I will try not to insert my own opinion into the question.

Why did you like Romney's foreign affairs policy? Also in your opinion what was his foreign policy?

What specific in his military budget did you like? The overall goal of a 4% floor or targeted spending on specific programs?

Bueller? Bueller?

Come on serious question here I want your opinion. PM Me if you do not feel like stating it publicly.

 

[argatoga]

I thought Romney wanted to continue the Bush foreign policy as Obama has.

 

[British_Rover]

Obama does want to close Gitmo but where do you put the prisoners?

I have always thought this obsession on the left with Gitmo is such a load of crap.


No states will take them so what do you do with them? Even a federal supermax is still in a State and they all went batshit crazy when the Admin suggested that.

You burn political capital to get it done when it really only makes a small portion of your constituency happy. A portion that isn't going to vote for Republicans anytime soon.

I agree it should be closed, I actually argued in a paper back in 2003 how to set Gitmo up so it wouldn't be so toxic, but it is not the highest priority.

Obama has a bit more political capital now then he did before but how much of it do you use on this? How much of a shit storm does it create? I don't know.

 

[nomix]

I'm not sure Hillary is sold on running. Earlier this past term, she was saying this was the end of politics for her. I think her favorable term has Secretary is what stirs the talking about her running. Biden would be the natural person to carry the flag, but I think even he'd have to put a lot of thought into it. Even amongst Democrats he gets a mixed reputation (I like him plenty, though), but if he continues in politics, he'd essentially have to run.

Hillary's running. She's modest now, just you wait.

In Romney's defense setting up a transition takes so much time you have to start working on it before the election to have a chance to finish it in time.

Think about it this way.

1. The other side loves to criticize a slow moving or botched transition. Hell the Republicans tried to create one by keeping nominees from making it through confirmation.

2. The first 100 days are so important that unless you have as much staff pre-positioned before the inauguration you will never get much accomplished.

3. It is only about 80 days from election day to inauguration day so getting things set up makes sense.

Having part of your plans leaked to the internet sucks. Makes me wonder if some IT guy did it on purpose.

Thing is, I'm sure they expected to win, and that the site was set to automatically appear at a set time unless otherwise informed. And they forgot about it. Preparing for transition, while tempting the wrath of the whatever high atop the thing is perfect

I was listening to a couple of speech writers on NPR, though I cannot remember which administrations they worked on, and both said that as far as they knew no one prepared a concession speech ahead of time for the campaigns they worked on.

I don't think it is as common as people think. They said that typically a candidate writes his own concession speech and maybe does not do it till after the loss is assured.

Seems risky in modern, organized politics. Leaving the candidate to fuck up, not to mention the delay.

This elections marks my fifth election of correctly guessing both party's nominees ahead of time. The Republican one is easy because historically the Republicans pick the runner up from the previous election cycle's primaries.

Prior to 1976 it was not so simple.

1976 Ford wins over Reagan

1980 Bush Sr. lost to Reagan.

1988 Bush Sr. won and Dole lost

1996 Dole wins over Buchanan and Forbes seeming to screw up the cycle because Bush Jr won in 2000.

Bush Jr. was an obvious winner though because of his father and because his father was seen as a moderate. He shouldn't have won but the ties to his father and playing up his fake bi-partisanship in Texas let him win.

2000 Bush Defeats McCain

2008 McCain defeats Romney.

In 2012 the runner up was Santorum...

I have a hard time saying Santorum will be the 2016 Republican nominee. I guess it depends if they double down or actually start to reflect on what is happening to their party both internally and externally.

If they nominate Santorum, they will get such a schlacking it will be a sight for sore eyes.

Obama does want to close Gitmo but where do you put the prisoners?

I have always thought this obsession on the left with Gitmo is such a load of crap.

There is, in all actuality, nothing wrong with Gitmo, provided a few things.

1. They're treated like POW's.
2. They're treated like POW's.
3. They're not tortured.
4. They're treated like POW's.

Just because the Bush administration decided the US constitution and the Geneva convention didn't apply at Gitmo doesn't make it eternal truth, I suppose.

No states will take them so what do you do with them? Even a federal supermax is still in a State and they all went batshit crazy when the Admin suggested that.

Indian reservation?

You burn political capital to get it done when it really only makes a small portion of your constituency happy. A portion that isn't going to vote for Republicans anytime soon.

I agree it should be closed, I actually argued in a paper back in 2003 how to set Gitmo up so it wouldn't be so toxic, but it is not the highest priority.

Obama has a bit more political capital now then he did before but how much of it do you use on this? How much of a shit storm does it create? I don't know.

I had a long conversation about Gitmo with a very conservative chap some days ago. He argued that in America, you don't try, you do. And that Obama was a complete and utter failure because of Gitmo. He did try, but states made it impossible.

But in the US, you don't try..

Great.

 

[Cobol74]

Gitmo is illegal in international law, you just shut it.

If you have evidence of a crime you bring the suspect on shore to the USA and take him to court and present the evidence; if not you let him go - it is not rocket science. Just imagine the American ire if we had done the same with the IRA?

 

[GRtak]

POWs are sent home after the war is over...

 

[NecroJoe]

Right. We'll send 'em home as soon as the war on terror is over. *eyes roll so far back, for a billion different reasons, they fall out and explode, leaving behind only the strange smell if musk."

 

[SpitfireMK461]

Right. We'll send 'em home as soon as the war on terror is over. *eyes roll so far back, for a billion different reasons, they fall out and explode, leaving behind only the strange smell if musk."

How do you define major military action against an international, non-governmental organization(s)? If you think only war involves a formal declaration between two standing national militaries, I don't think you've considered the ramifications of such organizations and weak, unstable state actors enough.

 

[GRtak]

You are assuming they are all terrorists.

 

[SpitfireMK461]

You are assuming they are all terrorists.

It's not about the labeling, it's about the conflict. They kill us, we kill them, so it's something. It's not the conventional definition of war, but it definitely isn't peace.

 

[GRtak]

I am referring to the prisoners still in Gitmo. Most of them were not terrorists and should have been released soon after the war/s were over.

 

[mpicco]

Obviously depends on anyone's definition of Terrorist... the bar can be set quite low.

 

[SpitfireMK461]

I am referring to the prisoners still in Gitmo. Most of them were not terrorists and should have been released soon after the war/s were over.

Oh, I absolutely agree that they should be released at the end of the war or officially charged and put on trial. I'm not privy to them being terrorists or not, though.

 

[MacGuffin]

The thing about the Guantanamo inmates is, that there are probably many innocent people in there.

It goes back to the early days of the war in Afghanistan, when the Americans were paying money to people for getting information. Many Afghans used that to hit two birds with one stone: A) Getting some dollars and B) denounce people, who they still had things to settle with (personal quarrel, jealousy, envy, a family feud, you name it). They saw a perfect opportunity. And once the word spread around, that the Americans don't ask too many questions whether the accusation is justified or not, it kinda got out of hand and the numbers of alleged Taliban exploded.

I'd bet some money, that until today many of those unwarranted accused are still inside Guantanamo. And the problem is: If they were turned loose, they'd tell their story to the world. So maybe in a cynical way the "best solution" for the USA is to simply keep them locked up, so no more trouble arises from them. Because it's likely those people would get massive attention by the media all over the world.

It's kinda like a vicious circle and at some point you maybe have to be pragmatic and consider them casualties of war.

 

[Jimi Hendrix]

It's kinda like a vicious circle and at some point you maybe have to be pragmatic and consider them casualties of war.

Statements like this make me lose my faith in humanity more and more everyday...

 

[MacGuffin]

It's a faith I never had in the first place.

To me it is absolutely clear, that we will either go to he stars, evolve into a different species or become extinct. Either way the planet has about 4 billion years to live and I can definitely say, that humanity in its current form will have absolutely no influence whatsover on 99,999999 % of its remaining lifetime. And if we leave this planet or become extinct, every single little tiny trace of our civilization will eventually disappear due to erosion or the movement of the tectonic plates.

So why even worry? Enjoy your life.

 

[nomix]

Gitmo is illegal in international law, you just shut it.

If you have evidence of a crime you bring the suspect on shore to the USA and take him to court and present the evidence; if not you let him go - it is not rocket science. Just imagine the American ire if we had done the same with the IRA?

It's illegal now, but once you make it into a POW camp, it isn't.

As for the IRA, Ted Heath introduced detention without trial, and you used deprevation of sleep, kept people from legal representation, kept them from courts, their families and you tortured and beat them.

POWs are sent home after the war is over...

This isn't a traditional war..

As for the innocents in Guantanamo, bring in good investigators and identify them. The innocent people kept there should be released, as soon as they're identified as innocent.

 

[Jimi Hendrix]

It's a faith I never had in the first place.

To me it is absolutely clear, that we will either go to he stars, evolve into a different species or become extinct. Either way the planet has about 4 billion years to live and I can definitely say, that humanity in its current form will have absolutely no influence whatsover on 99,999999 % of its remaining lifetime. And if we leave this planet or become extinct, every single little tiny trace of our civilization will eventually disappear due to erosion or the movement of the tectonic plates.

So why even worry? Enjoy your life.

What have you been smoking? :?

That's the kind of mentality that around 70 years ago made a whole nation look elsewhere while some of the biggest atrocities of our recent history were being committed.