DanRoM
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- Feb 27, 2009
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News from the German front: Nearly two months after the federal elections, the coalition talks (well, they weren't even formally called that yet) have been stopped. Out of the four parties involved (Merkel's moderate right-wing CDU, their right-wing populist Bavarian sister party CSU, the liberal FDP, and the Greens), the FDP just pulled out (Guardian article).
The failure of this (always thought to be fragile) four-party coalition even before they got into formal coalition talks means that no one has a majority in parliament, and with the strongest party having about 30% of the seats, a minority government is also not a realistic option. Unless
a) the FDP has just pulled a ruse to get back into the talks with considerably more leverage or
b) the former junior partner of the CDU, the centrist SPD, decides to go back into a coalition and thereby commits final political suicide,
Germany will need new elections sometime this winter.
I won't rule out possibilty a) just yet, as it's been only half an hour since the announcement and everyone needs to sleep over it. Realistically, going back into the talks would creaty a massive credibility problem for the FDP, but as no one thinks of them as having such a trait in the first place anyway, it might still be possible.
I also won't rule out the SPD toppling over to be the CDU's sidekick again, as that has been their specialty for years (which the voters thanked them for by dropping them from formerly well over 35% to now 20%).
Interestingly, in my opinion the CDU would gain massive chances with the other parties to form a coalition if they only got rid of the CSU (the two parties form a common parliamentary faction). But even the biggest two parties, CDU (without CSU) and SPD, together fall two seats short of a majority.
Let's see what tomorrow brings...
The failure of this (always thought to be fragile) four-party coalition even before they got into formal coalition talks means that no one has a majority in parliament, and with the strongest party having about 30% of the seats, a minority government is also not a realistic option. Unless
a) the FDP has just pulled a ruse to get back into the talks with considerably more leverage or
b) the former junior partner of the CDU, the centrist SPD, decides to go back into a coalition and thereby commits final political suicide,
Germany will need new elections sometime this winter.
I won't rule out possibilty a) just yet, as it's been only half an hour since the announcement and everyone needs to sleep over it. Realistically, going back into the talks would creaty a massive credibility problem for the FDP, but as no one thinks of them as having such a trait in the first place anyway, it might still be possible.
I also won't rule out the SPD toppling over to be the CDU's sidekick again, as that has been their specialty for years (which the voters thanked them for by dropping them from formerly well over 35% to now 20%).
Interestingly, in my opinion the CDU would gain massive chances with the other parties to form a coalition if they only got rid of the CSU (the two parties form a common parliamentary faction). But even the biggest two parties, CDU (without CSU) and SPD, together fall two seats short of a majority.
Let's see what tomorrow brings...
