Plissken
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- Jul 26, 2005
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Very long and very good article in the Economist
http://www.economist.com/world/britain/displayStory.cfm?story_id=15452867
Basically, it shows that what we perceive to be the state of the country is wrong - indeed massively, massively wrong.
Some selected quotes
http://www.economist.com/world/britain/displayStory.cfm?story_id=15452867
Basically, it shows that what we perceive to be the state of the country is wrong - indeed massively, massively wrong.
Some selected quotes
Opinion pollsters around the world find that people are usually gloomy about the future, perhaps because it is inherently more uncertain than the past. But Britons are getting even more downbeat. When Labour came to power in 1997, 40% of the population thought the country was becoming a worse place to live in. By 2007 that had risen to 60%. A year on, and a year into Gordon Brown?s spell as prime minister, the malcontents numbered 71%?and that was before the financial crash. There has been a ?surge of nostalgia? for the good old days, says Ben Page, head of Ipsos-Mori, a polling firm.
Chief among people?s worries is their security. Under Labour, fear of crime climbed until by 2007 it had become the issue that pollsters identified as the main complaint among voters. (Since then worries about the economy have eclipsed all else.) The heightened fears are a puzzle to criminologists, who point out that over the past 15 years Britain has experienced a steady, deep fall in crime. The statistics are notoriously hard to interpret, but according to the British Crime Survey, the Home Office?s most reliable measure though still far from perfect, crime overall has dropped by 45% since its peak in 1995. A big chunk of that fall is owing to reductions in vehicle theft and domestic burglary, for which alarm manufacturers and increased householder vigilance probably deserve as much credit as the police. But violent crime has fallen too. It is now almost half what it was in 1995, and no higher than in 1981 (see chart 1).
Looking more carefully, the big fall in brutality has been in domestic violence, which has dropped by a staggering 70%. (No one is sure why; the best guess is that an improving economy has kept men out of the house and given women enough money to escape if they need to.) Violence at the hands of strangers?the prospect that probably drives fear of crime more than anything else?has fallen by far less, and in fact rose in the most recent reporting period. Robbery has not gone down as much as burglary, perhaps because personal security has not improved in line with domestic security. But it too has been falling.
This sort of upbeat, wonkish analysis enrages those who insist that, for ordinary people, Britain is a more frightening place than it once was, whatever official statistics might say. In parts of the country, and some of the time, that is bound to be true. Until recently the Home Office crime survey did not interview under-16s. Nor does it weight serious crimes more heavily than mild ones, which means that a drop in bicycle theft could cancel out an increase in assaults. The Conservatives say that this has masked a rise in rare but serious crimes?particularly gun and knife crime.
The evidence is mixed. Gun crime has in fact been pretty flat nationwide. Data on knife crime are poor, but some doctors say that they are dealing with more stabbings, and the number of murders involving ?sharp instruments? (bottles as well as knives) has risen slightly. Murders using guns increased alarmingly during the first few years of Labour?s time in office, but have since dropped back down. Indeed, the day before Mr Cameron made his ?broken society? pitch it was announced that the total number of homicides recorded by the police was at its lowest in 19 years.
One of the clearest long-term trends relates directly to the Edlington question. Parents have probably never been more worried about their offspring, but the truth is that children seem to be less at risk now than in the past. The number of killings of under-15s has ?collapsed? since the 1970s, according to Colin Pritchard of Bournemouth University. Professor Pritchard calculates that in 1974 Britain was the third-biggest killer of children in the rich world. By his reckoning it is now 17th, following a 70% drop in child homicides. To be on the safe side, he did the analysis again, including cases where the cause of death was undetermined; even then the number of cases had halved. He credits closer co-operation between police and social services, which kicked off in a big way in 1979.
Children also seem to be committing fewer serious offences themselves. Martin Narey, a former Home Office big cheese who now runs Barnardo?s, a venerable children?s charity, points out that the number of under-16s being convicted of the gravest offences is at least a third lower than it was in the early 1990s. There are fewer Mary Bells about, not more.
The real eye-opener is a long-term series including older teenagers. Conception among 15- to 19-year-olds has dropped by nearly a sixth since 1969 though there are more girls of that age (oddly, the number of pregnancies has started to rise again since 2003). And fewer still are becoming mothers, owing to a steep increase in abortions after they were made legal in 1967. Today, only half as many girls between 15 and 19 bear a child in their teens as when their grandmothers were that age (see chart 2).
At the root of it all is an education system that has long failed to educate the great mass of children usefully. It is showing its limitations more than ever now that manufacturing jobs for the unskilled are vanishing. For all the government fanfare about better-than-ever national exam results (partly achieved by grading fluffier subjects more sympathetically), in international tests the trend is downward. Data collected for the OECD?s PISA study in 2000 ranked British 15-year-olds eighth among member countries in maths, with a total point score, 529, that was well above the average. In 2006, with a below-average score of 495, they came joint 18th. So too with reading: British pupils were seventh in 2000 with 523 points but joint 13th in 2006 with 495. The 2009 data are unlikely to show a radical improvement. The most sobering aspect is the persistent gap in achievement between the very best and the very worst. Despite that, in 2007 Britain was educating a smaller proportion of its 15- to 19-year-olds than it did in 1995, on OECD figures. Of other member countries, only Portugal recorded a drop.