Covid 19 CRISIS

Besides, @Punisher Bass 's update. Here's the daily Missouri numbers. I am encouraged that the numbers of new cases seems to be trending down. Hopefully that isn't an anomaly in reporting from the counties.

Missouri Covd-19 Total Cases and Deaths.png


Missouri Covid-19 Cases - Logarithmic Chart.png




Missouri standing up and proudly proclaiming "LOOK! WE CAN BE JUST A STUPID!". https://www.stltoday.com/lifestyles...815fd63558c.html#tracking-source=home-just-in

About the type of folks I'd expect at this. Republican law makers, people that listen to right wing media, folks that think camo is a fashion statement.

Edit: And now for something completely stupid. - https://www.kmbc.com/article/missou...ndemic-attorney-general-eric-schmitt/32225134

Missouri becomes first state to file lawsuit against China in response to COVID-19 pandemic
 
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Some interesting stuff here, though IMO fatality rate is not the biggest issue, the speed of infection and demand for healthcare services are.

By that I mean that even though it’s fatality rate might be about the same as the flu it moves so quickly that unlike the flu we end up with a huge run on for hospitals
https://apple.news/A2DRSKQl1QmCD_bJhfZTzbw
 
The fatality rate is much higher than the flu.


https://www.npr.org/sections/corona...g-combination-trump-has-promoted-for-covid-19

NIH Panel Recommends Against Drug Combination Promoted By Trump For COVID-19


A panel of experts convened by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases recommends against doctors using a combination of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin for the treatment of COVID-19 patients because of potential toxicities.


"The combination of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin was associated with QTc prolongation in patients with COVID-19," the panel said.


QTc prolongation increases the risk of sudden cardiac death.


The recommendation against their combined use would seem to fly in the face of comments made by President Trump suggesting the combination might be helpful. On March 21, for example, the president described them in a tweet as having a "real chance to be one of the biggest game changers in the history of medicine."


HYDROXYCHLOROQUINE & AZITHROMYCIN, taken together, have a real chance to be one of the biggest game changers in the history of medicine. The FDA has moved mountains - Thank You! Hopefully they will BOTH (H works better with A, International Journal of Antimicrobial Agents).....
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) March 21, 2020

He has repeatedly touted the use of the drugs during televised coronavirus task force briefings.


"I think it's not a bad idea to do it, but that's up to the doctors," Trump said March 31 before adding the caveat, "It's going to have to be proven. It's very early."


On April 5, though, without any more evidence of efficacy, he went further:


"What do you have to lose? And a lot of people are saying that when — and are taking it — if you're a doctor, a nurse, a first responder, a medical person going into hospitals, they say taking it before the fact is good. But what do you have to lose? They say, 'Take it.' I'm not looking at it one way or the other, but we want to get out of this. If it does work, it would be a shame if we didn't do it early. But we have some very good signs. So that's hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin."



As for using the use of hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine alone, the panel said there was "insufficient clinical data to recommend either for or against." It reached the same conclusion about the drug remdesivir.


The expert panel, convened by the NIH Institute that Dr. Anthony Fauci directs, produced a set of guidelines for doctors to use in treating COVID-19 patients. The panelists come from a variety of health care disciplines. For the most part, the guidelines are agnostic about the use of experimental medications, pointing out that strong scientific evidence is lacking to make a firm conclusion one way or the other.


But occasionally, there are recommendations explicitly against certain therapies. For example, the panel recommended against using Lopinavir/ritonavir or other HIV protease inhibitors because of negative clinical trial data. It also recommended against using interferon because it seemed to make patients with SARS and MERS worse. Those diseases are caused by a coronavirus related to the one causing COVID-19.


"It's all based on the data," said panel member Dr. Susan Swindells, a professor in the department of internal medicine at the University of Nebraska College of Medine. "We just plowed through everything that was, and apart from supportive care, there wasn't anything that was working terribly well."


The panel also concluded that there was insufficient evidence to recommend any kind of treatment either to prevent infection with the coronavirus or to prevent the progression of symptoms in those who are already infectious. That recommendation could change based on clinical trials presently underway.


Both hydroxychloroquine and convalescent serum are being studied for the possible use for prophylaxis, but the results from those trials are not available. Many of the recommendations aren't terribly surprising. Persons who test positive for the coronavirus but don't have symptoms should self-isolate for seven days after their first positive test.


Patients with mild symptoms should be monitored closely, because more serious symptoms can come on rapidly. Patients with moderate symptoms will likely need hospitalization and supportive therapy. People with severe disease may need oxygen through a cannula, or tube; patients in critical condition may need to be place on a respirator.


The plan is to update the guidelines frequently as new results become available. Swindells said there could be an update about the recommendations regarding remdesivir in the coming week or so.
 
The fatality rate is much higher than the flu.
Did you read my link? There was a serology by Stanford that suggested C19's real fatality rate is about 0.12-0.2% which isn't far off from the flu at 0.1%

Direct link bypassing apple news -https://www.wired.com/story/new-covid-19-antibody-study-results-are-in-are-they-right/
 
In two months, COVID 19 has killed more than the flu this flu season, which is about 8 months in. That is despite the lock down in most of the country.

There are also deaths that are missed because of not being tested, not being admitted to the hospital, or other reasons. Michigan's stats have had hundreds of missed cases added to the rolls over the last few weeks.

Also, this from your article.

Skeptics have noted that the conclusions seem at odds with some basic math. In New York City, where more than 10,000 people, or about 0.1 percent of the population, have already died from Covid-19, this estimated fatality rate would mean nearly everyone in the city has already been infected. That’s unlikely, since the number of new cases, and deaths, is still mounting, fast.

The maths seem more than a little out of whack.
 
The problem is how many will die if our economy collapses.

Farmers are dumping milk because there is no market for it.
https://abcnews.go.com/US/dairy-farmers-dumping-milk-amid-covid-19-pandemics/story?id=70268302

With oil prices going negative, some of the oil companies will go out of business.

People are losing their jobs and can't pay rent, which means maintenance workers can't be paid, which means they loose their jobs as well, and so on, and so on.

None of this is isolated. The whole system can collapses like dominos.

A famine will kill more than 2 million. We might not have the luxury of staying at home until the virus is gone.
 
With oil prices going negative, some of the oil companies will go out of business.
Blame the ones still pumping lots and lots of oil despite a drop in demand, in order to make others go out of business. Free market, so to speak.
 
Blame the ones still pumping lots and lots of oil despite a drop in demand, in order to make others go out of business. Free market, so to speak.

The problem is it isn't just companies, it's nation states as well.

I'm not an expert in the oil industry, but I am guessing you can't just stop production as well.
 
Certainly, there's a reason why I was unspecific and wrote "the ones" and "others", not "companies". Allegedly Saudi Arabia and Russia / their nationally run companies are a big part of this.

You can lower production, if you wanted to.
 
NIH Panel Recommends Against Drug Combination Promoted By Trump For COVID-19

As usual, Trump is an idiotic incompetent who should shut up and accept his own shortcomings instead of trying to talk his way out of everything and killing people this way.

That hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin are dangerous if mixed is written quite clearly in (at the very least) the indications that come within the package of commercially sold azithromycin (here, those information sheet are compulsory. Isn't it the same in the US?).

People should be able to trust the President's words, so the President should not speak if he doesn't know what he's talking about.

What Happens If U.S. Reopens Too Fast? Documents Show Federal Coronavirus Projections

If the US reopens too early, the virus will restart its exponential trajectory and the country will have to close down again. The earlier they reopen, the earlier they will have to lockdown again.

To avoid the lockdown, the virus must be contained correctly. Angela Merkel explains it best, speaking of Germany (which is waaaay better equipped against Covid-19 than the US are) and speaking out of her own knowledge of math and science.


This also shows that having someone competent at the helm, when things get stormy, is quite a lot better than having a pathological, ignorant, incompetent narcissist.

Did you read my link? There was a serology by Stanford that suggested C19's real fatality rate is about 0.12-0.2% which isn't far off from the flu at 0.1%

Here in Italy, the flu kills 500 people each year on a total of 5.500.000 infected each year. That's 1/10.000 people. Double it, triple it, make it ten times that, to account for other factors. That's still 1/1000. Covid-19 kills around 1-2% (if everything goes well), that's 1-2/100 (if everything goes well!). The two illnesses are not comparable, as of today.

The problem is how many will die if our economy collapses.

If the economy collapses because of a virus like this, it means the economic system had not taken this possibility into account and has to be modified accordingly. A system that does not prepare for foreseeable crisis is a weak system, and we are seeing it right now.

However, part of the collapse will rebuild fast, because needs, competences and, most of the time, equipement, are still there in good shape. Most of the loss can and will be recovered.

Farmers are dumping milk because there is no market for it.

Food production is indeed one of the most important things to consider, and one of the few production lines that should not really stop.

But if milk is getting wasted, make cheese. When, in due time, milk will cost a fortune and cheese will be cheap, people will eat cheese. Which means: adapt, rather than throwing food away.

Most of the problems for the food production industry, here, come not from the reduced demand, but because of the lack of specialized workers in the fields, who are usually foreigners who cannot enter the country right now; or illegal immigrants enslaved at 2-3€ per day who can't be used now because the police controls when too many people are together and who can't be regularized because the owners don't want to (or can't economically) pay them adequately and because many xenophobes oppose this anyway (the same hypocrit people who normally have no problem in buying and eating cheap produce picked by those same immigrants...)

With oil prices going negative, some of the oil companies will go out of business.

This is Saudi Arabia's long-term plan getting an unexpected help by Covid-19, since they have been playing the cheap oil game for years.

This is, again, the effect of the shortcomings of the US system, that has not taken into account a possibility like this, even if that could be crippling.

None of this is isolated. The whole system can collapses like dominos.

This shows the fragility of the system. But then again, when the market is too free, this might happen. Too many people believed that the high rates of return we experienced were free of risks. They aren't free (that's both the most basic rules of the market tied together: nothing is free and the higher the reward, the higher the risk). So, better be prepared if something goes the wrong way.

A famine will kill more than 2 million. We might not have the luxury of staying at home until the virus is gone.

You might have to anyway, because if things reopen too early, another lockdown will come, and it will be economically worse than the first one, or you'll have another, and another, and another, with a devastating compound effect. It would be like two or more hurricanes hitting the same place in a short period of time. The first is a disaster, the second is a massacre. The third...

Economically, the impact WILL be disastrous. This is why the Government should use its strength to alleviate the suffering and avoid panick-behaviours that would worsen the effects of the crisis. Also because, as we have said, the demand and competences and equipment can all be there after the crisis, if companies and workers and families will be helped to get by and not get broke.
 
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Saudi's completely dependent on oil, which is running out, the faster the better.




Coronavirus: The F1 engineers helping the pandemic

A "dream team" of engineering and technology has been assembled to try to ramp up production of ventilators for the NHS.

Dick Elsy, chief executive of VentilatorChallengeUK Consortium, said the group was set to deliver an estimated ten years' worth of production in just a few months.
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-the-f1-engineers-helping-battle-covid-19-11976766

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/21/we-made-right-choice-in-ventilator-race-says-uk-consortium-head




Coronavirus death toll in UK twice as high as official figure
https://www.ft.com/content/67e6a4ee-3d05-43bc-ba03-e239799fa6ab
 
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Guy sues state on several counts: some dumb such as government shut the Catholic Church which shut prior to the government order.

Interesting complaint because mirrors protesters logic.

https://www.9news.com/article/news/...rders/73-b7325bb4-e747-41fd-b858-7a0d265d1b38

Also second wave will be worse than the first says health official.

'Really, really difficult'

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) director Robert Redfield.

https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-us-canada-52378845
 
In two months, COVID 19 has killed more than the flu this flu season, which is about 8 months in. That is despite the lock down in most of the country.
Death rate is not how many people it kills in X amount of time, it is the percentage of people
killed out of everyone who has been infected. If we are massively undercounting the number of infections due to lack of testing or asymptomatic patients or some other reasons it changes the maths.

You kind of missed my point though, I was saying that regardless of the maths here the issue is not death rate it’s the speed with which it moves that causes it to quickly overwhelm hospital capacity. It could have had a 0.01% death rate and all other things being equal we would have still had the same issues we do now.
 
The German flu season ended a few weeks ago, and we counted 411 lab-confirmed deaths related to the flu. [src]
Covid-19 is far from over, and already we've counted over 5000 lab-confirmed deaths related to Covid-19.

More deaths, less time.

As for patient numbers, the same source claims an estimated 4.3 million patients with flu symptoms this season. If accurate, that would be a very very low mortality rate for the flu. If you scaled up that rate using Covid-19 lab-confirmed deaths you'd end up at virtually the entire population already being infected.
 
Death rate is not how many people it kills in X amount of time, it is the percentage of people
killed out of everyone who has been infected. If we are massively undercounting the number of infections due to lack of testing or asymptomatic patients or some other reasons it changes the maths.


No shit? I never would have thunk it. My point was that this is already more people than the flu, and it is doing so very quickly.

You also missed, or ignored the next line:

There are also deaths that are missed because of not being tested, not being admitted to the hospital, or other reasons. Michigan's stats have had hundreds of missed cases added to the rolls over the last few weeks.

If we are missing deaths caused by this, the rate is even higher. It is also impossible to say how high the rate of infections are at his point due to a lack of enough tests. It is also impossible to get that rate from those that show up to get tested because they are already symptomatic.
 
All the stats are fluid, will take a long to time to verify them. So many not tested that should have been.



Autopsies reveal first confirmed U.S. coronavirus deaths occurred in California in February


Two coronavirus-infected people died in Santa Clara County on Feb. 6 and Feb. 17, the medical examiner revealed Tuesday, making them first documented COVID-19 fatalities in the United States.

Until now, the first fatality was believed to have occurred in Kirkland, Wash., on Feb. 29.
https://www.latimes.com/california/...deaths-occurred-in-bay-area-in-early-february
 
Call me one of the near 60% who has said they wont be patronizing businesses until the virus is reduced, testing available, and precautions set. I dont see how these people who want to open up america really see this going. Its not like I am going to go to any retail or restaurants.

With retail it wasn't all that well positioned to begin with. Imagine opening back up as a retailer with angry employees because you are risking their life then barely having customers which means you have low revenue and high cost of operations.

Restaurants and bars I go to are centered around people its not like I cant mix a better rum an coke at home its the people I want to be with. If I am not really getting the environment or ambiance why go to a restaurant? I can get a delivery order already why bother going to a place with a greater risk for a bad experience?

I get that some people are willing to take the risk to go to work and get sick. But why rush head long into it without having the necessary precautions in place. Are they even going to have enough thermometers to test all their employees?
 
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