Covid 19 CRISIS

Finland has tightened some covid restrictions, basically shutting off evening hospitality (bars/restaurants) as well as any kind of non-seated events. While mildly annoying, this sadly makes sense since there's still a lot unknown about Omicron. Stat is currently running two pieces, one an interview with Trevor Bedford (who I massively respect and have experienced as very level-headed) and one an op-ed by the team that did the groundbreaking work on the case rate to death rate relation in Covid. Bedford says he does not know how worried we should be ("between 3 and 8 out of 10, with Delta being a 6") but foresees a future of 100K US deaths from endemic covid each winter. On the other hand, the death rate researchers say the relation between cases and deaths seen in all other waves is broken with Omicron and unless some dramatic wave of death hits much later than in earlier waves, the current panic is unjustified.

So, with "twice the death of a flu season" to "it's nothing" being the range of possible outcomes according to serious scientists, I am fine with my government erring on the side of caution, and reacting early instead of doing nothing and then locking people down in their homes suddenly. In three weeks we will know more and if we until then see it's not that bad, then it's a New Year's eve ruined but no real harm done.

Bedford makes a bunch of super interesting minor points as well. For example, he thinks London's Imperial College's Omicron severity analysis concluding that Omicron is as bad as Delta is unbalanced by being too precise: It compares severity in unvaccinated, recovered, vaccinated, boostered, etc 1:1, which excludes the real-world fact that the vast majority of Omicron infections will be in people with vaccination or prior infection. He also wonders why there is the steep decline of Omicron cases we start seeing in South Africa (yesterday's case count is half of the peak) after not even two months, suspecting that there are even more super mild/asymptomatic cases that aren't caught.
 
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Some random Omicron news:
  • Current estimates put it at 35% more transmissive than Delta. Which on the one hand is a far cry from "three to five times more transmissive", but on the other hand still differs from earlier estimates that put it on eye level with Delta or slightly below
  • Of course since this figure is based on the same real-world growth rate, it at the same time means that the immune escape is not quite as pronounced as feared, even if it still holds true that the lesser (non-mRNA) vaccines as well as all but two of the monoclonal antibodies currently in use are basically defeated by Omicron.
  • Speaking of vaccines, Novavax says their vaccine holds up against Omicron. Sadly the press release is so confusing in it's wording I can't tell if that also holds true without a third shot.
  • Also, Pfizer's recently-approved antiviral pill stays unfazed and effective despite Omicron.
Regarding the real-world impact of Omicron:
  • By now we have ample data from the UK and elsewhere that Omicron definitely causes less severe disease
  • That is a good thing since scientists estimate that we will have about the same amount of cases as since the beginning of the pandemic (!) within the next two months.
  • This is also why many public health officials are getting annoyed by vaccine maker's talk about Omicron vaccines: If they can't deliver at scale before March or April, the Omicron wave will be done and dusted, and the Omicron vaccine useless.
  • With around 40% of the world's population probably getting infected before the first quarter of 22 is over, this may well spell the end of the pandemic's hot phase, with lower waves following in the coming winters as immunity wanes and the virus evolves
  • Is that good news? Only if the wave is super steep and drops as quick as in South Africa, where we saw record-high caseloads, but only half the hospitalization, ICU occupation, and death as with Delta, and cases counts are already dropping as quick as they rose after a month or so.
  • Otherwise, and with the EU's and US' higher population age and higher rate of comorbidities, it may be different, we are in for a very rough ride, with overloaded hospitals and basically a year's worth of Covid death (hundreds of thousands in the US alone) being "front-loaded" into the first quarter of 2022.
 
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NSW hit 11,000+ new, active daily cases today.

Testing centres are overwhelmed, and waits of 7+ hours aren't uncommon. They're now telling people not to test - even if they get an exposure notification - unless they're symptomatic. Then 2 testing facilities told a combined 1300+ people they were negative, when they were not. So we'll see in a week how much of a fuck-up that will have caused.

The Premier finally back-tracked on the restrictions he dropped on December 15. (Density limits, mandatory QR check-in codes, masks indoors in public), but is still pushing the "personal responsibility" line.

However, not as regards people cancelling nights out and social bookings for NYE. Many people are taking personal responsibility seriously, and staying the fuck at home. But his mates in the business sector are crying out because they've lost 70% of bookings made once restrictions were dropped and then re-introduced, and he's encouraging people to go out and support the businesses regardless.

Got my Pfizer booster yesterday though! Just the sore arm at the puncture point, I did feel a little drained earlier this evening, but I also slipped over today in a car-park, and I'm a bit sore, so I think it was more likely that, since I had to pick myself up and push on for the remainder of the day.
 
 
Because I’m sure they have accurate data from every corner. I’m not trying to gaslight but do they really know that every freaking corner is like the floor is lava game? come on…
 
Because I’m sure they have accurate data from every corner. I’m not trying to gaslight but do they really know that every freaking corner is like the floor is lava game? come on…


This is not a every corner has a problem indicator, this is a per capita indicator.
 
It's the United States once more.

...except for the Flying Spaghetti Monster, it's not reporting any data.
 
I'm not too concerned for myself because I have a hardcore immune system. I get sick maybe once every 2-3 years and that doesn't lasts long. I haven't had any form medications, not even aspirin, in the last 25 years. However, I'm still social distancing.

Oh, I forgot that I posted this back in March 2020.

So...I have COVID at the moment.

Am I sure I have COVID? Yes, I confirmed it with an antigen test two days ago.

How long have I had it? First cough was 7 days ago.

Is it Omicron? I don't know.

How did I get infected? I got infected from a vaccinated friend who I noticed had a cough.

Do I have any pre-existing conditions? No, no diabetes, no asthma, no nothing. Nor do I drink or smoke. Not overweight and I exercise regularly.

How do I feel? I feel fine. Honestly, my household dust allergy is worse than this. I have one nostril that is slightly stuffy and I cough a little in the shower because of the steam. I have been exercising throughout this whole period with no issues. The only reason I decided to get tested because my vaccinated friend was coughing(very little but still).

Have I had COVID before? I don't know. The last time I was sick was in February 2020 before there was a lot of testing happening. Slept it off.

Do I wear masks? Yes

Do I social distance? Yes

Am I vaccinated? No. As I mentioned in the quote above I have not taken any form of medication(including aspirin/Tylenol) in the last 26 years. I get sick, I sleep it off, usually I'm good next day(hence my comment about a "hardcore immune system" above). I trust in my immune system to handle things. Clean living has paid off for me once again.

Am I anti-vax? Nope. My mother, siblings, and the majority of my friends/associates are vaccinated and/or boosted. They had no side-effects so I have no reason to tell someone not to get vaccinated if they so choose.

How's my friend? She's fine also. She is vaccinated. Has the same amount of coughing as I do and a stuffy nostril also.

Is this post about the vaccination debate? Nope, just telling my story.
 
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Spent some time with "the Scotland data" - in a real-world scenario they see 60% (that's almost two-third) less hospital admissions from Omicron than from Delta. This is not corrected for vaccination status, so the jury stays out whether what we see is "Omicron causes less severe disease" or only "the vaccines are doing their job". But it has to be said that this is based on admissions in the same timeframe and at 80% first shot rate, so Delta will be mostly breakthrough infections as well.
So far, no data on ICU occupation or length of hospital stay, but the drop observed for those in South Africa was even more pronounced than for admissions, so there's hope.

As a sidenote, they measure a booster efficacy of 60% compared to five months after second dose. So with 35-ish percent of protection from the second dose remaining, this probably puts us in the 70 to 80 percent ballpark observed in England earlier.

This from my point of view means while maybe it's not time to stop looking at case numbers completely, it's time to massively re-think what we see as an acceptable amount of cases. In the long run, there will be a pivot to diagnostic testing for resource reasons alone: From some point onwards, a covid test will only be done in cases where it's relevant for treatment (is this person at risk for a severe case? Do test, prescribe Pfizer pill. Does this person just have a cold? Send home and don't waste lab resources). But this is 2023/24 earliest stuff, I presume. We need a full year at least without overloaded hospitals and restrictions before we can afford such things.


EDIT: Also, best wishes and get well soon @Mally Dangerous
 
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Modeling showed NSW was expecting 20,000 cases per day sometime in January, when the restrictions were dropped and reintroduced.

With 14 hours to go in 2021, we made it to 21,000+ new infections announced yesterday. 69 people in ICU, 6 deaths overnight, and 70% of those are unvaccinated. People are STILL waiting on results from Christmas and Boxing Day tests. Some people can't even get a test, but feel unwell, so there's a lot more cases than that going undiagnosed. Those that do get tests have minimum 3 hours queues.

They've also changesd the definitions of a close contact, so less people have to be notified, and sent for tests. They're begging people that don't have symptoms not to go and test, so the asymptompatic people who until yesterday were considered close contacts, are free to wander about in the community.

It just feels like the months we spent in lockdown and locked-in, over the last 2 years was for nothing, because our new Premier doesn't give a shit.
 
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Stat has a great overview on Omicron.

Most data points within it you have seen in my prior posts, in one way or another. The tl;dr is "Omicron is a lot milder than prior variants of covid. But this will be more of an Omicron wall than an Omicron wave, with enough mild cases in a short-enough timeframe to push infrastructure to it's limits". I can imagine quarantine requirements being relaxed for jobs with little to no customer contact (garbage men, for example) since having a army of asymptomatic or very mild cases sitting at home while services get disrupted is not the capitalist way.

Two minor things I might add as not being fully reported on this pages yet, or rather as assumptions:
  • According to data from South Africa, where not even 25% of the populace are vaccinated, but over 75% are estimated to have been infected with covid, vaccine efficacy against hospitalization with Delta is 95% at 10.8% hospitalization rate. This means if those 10,8% were all unvaccinated, for 100 positive tests, 0,54 vaccinated people would end up in hospital. With Omicron, hospitalization rate is only 2,2% to start with*. So 70% efficacy against hospitalization with Omicron leaves us with 0,66 people ending up in hospital. This means the moved baseline of Omicron being milder and people with prior infection being among those getting Omicron leads to the drop in vaccine efficacy being a lot more pronounced in relative numbers than it is in real-world data.
  • The fact that Omicron infection provides cross-immunity against Delta is major. It basically guarantees that after the Omicron wave, we will not bounce back to more Delta shit, but months, hopefully even a year or two of quiet before the next Greek letter comes around.
*note that due to the younger population, this drop is even larger than the one observed in Scotland
 
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