Covid 19 CRISIS

[TobiasG]

Yes, a couple of months ago we had five cases of severe blood clots with young-"ish" healthcare workers who had been vaccinated with the AZ vaccine. They were all admitted to intensive care, and two of them died from complications stemming from that side effect. When it was later proven that the vaccine was to blame for this, they paused the AZ vaccine. Since the J&J vaccine uses the same principle it was put on hold before it was rolled out.

I know it makes others scratch their heads, but our healthcare administration is being super careful with everything, to the point where they do things like this. I think it's silly. Almost everyone else around us is using it still.

6 got severe complications and 4 of them died. AZ has been stopped or are given out to a limited number of people in several countries as they have discovered the same complications there. It comes down to what causes the least amount of damage. We never got that many AZ vaccines in the first place and the vast majority of the older population that has a high risk of dying have been vaccinated already. So by cancelling the AZ vaccine you delay the vaccination process a few weeks, but you don't really risk much by doing so. In other countries that are way more severely hit than us the situation will be different. There it will be beneficial to continue with the AZ vaccine since it will do a lot more good than harm.

 

[narf]

Thanks @93Flareside @Dr_Grip @narf ! I thought it was because of our typical inefficiency, but instead, for once, they're doing things properly!

I'm on a 35-days-to-the-minute schedule between getting the two Drosten-Pfosten rammed into my arm too

 

[Dr_Grip]

I'm on a 35-days-to-the-minute schedule between getting the two Drosten-Pfosten rammed into my arm too

42 days here, seems like another decision made on the local level. But fine with 42 days as well.

 

[Dr_Grip]

Breaking news! Christian Drosten has been voted seventh most attractive man of Berlin!

(image by @_Jules_)

 

[RdKetchup]

42 days here, seems like another decision made on the local level. But fine with 42 days as well.

112 days here..

 

[Dr_Grip]

Germany's most beloved covid expert Christian Drosten said in his podcast that we are on course to beat the pandemic. He's cautiously optimistic that we see the first effects of vaccination even with only 30% vaccinated right now.
Additionally, Moderna's new data shows that a third shot after six months (like it is standard with the HPV vaccine, for example) sends antibody levels against covid off the charts and should keep any variant at bay: "[The Indian variant] will not bring a new pandemic. We can vaccinate against it. We are not as helpless as last fall."
Nevertheless, he thinks that covid will become endemic: "Those who actively decide against vaccination have to know, that this at the same time means opting for natural infection." He believes that every person will build up covid immunity within the next one to one and a half years - either through vaccination or through getting sick.

As more info is coming in on the Indian variant, the good news is that it indeed seems to be less of a challenge to the vaccines than the South African variant, if any (see several pre-prints, first and foremost by Cambridge's Ravi Gupta). The "double mutations" don't add on top of each other in terms of immune escape, in fact they seem to "buy" the slight immune escape advantage with slightly reduced transmissibility.
Surprisingly, it's a sub-version of it that does not have the immune escape capabilities that is worrying officials in Britain now: That one seems to be about as transmittable as the "Kent" variant that has fucked us all over in the third wave. So getting as many people as possible vaccinated as quickly as possible still is paramount. We got this.

 

[calvinhobbes]

112 days here..

27 days, 23 hours and 30 minutes in my case. I guess I lose?

I’m thinking about getting an antibody test after the second dose… are there quantitative ones readily available or just the qualitative ones?

 

[narf]

I’m thinking about getting an antibody test after the second dose… are there quantitative ones readily available or just the qualitative ones?

What are you trying to find out?

 

[calvinhobbes]

What are you trying to find out?

On the one hand, I am curious about the amount of antibodies that I will have, hence the question about quantitative tests (i.e. titer in medicalese).

On the other hand, I want another certificate in my travel paperwork so I can show it to excessively inquisitive border agents and/or exceedingly ill-informed airline ground staff. That’s where even a qualitative test would help. I’ve had two close calls in the past couple of months (Iberia… ) and the US CBP people are getting nosier all the time.

 

[93Flareside]

On the one hand, I am curious about the amount of antibodies that I will have, hence the question about quantitative tests (i.e. titer in medicalese).

On the other hand, I want another certificate in my travel paperwork so I can show it to excessively inquisitive border agents and/or exceedingly ill-informed airline ground staff. That’s where even a qualitative test would help. I’ve had two close calls in the past couple of months (Iberia… ) and the US CBP people are getting nosier all the time.

Hey man, we only hire the best.

 

[calvinhobbes]

Hey man, we only hire the best.

Oh, I don’t blame them. Before they ask, they just don’t know they’re only wasting time and they haven’t been rude or anything.

 

[narf]

On the one hand, I am curious about the amount of antibodies that I will have, hence the question about quantitative tests (i.e. titer in medicalese).

On the other hand, I want another certificate in my travel paperwork so I can show it to excessively inquisitive border agents and/or exceedingly ill-informed airline ground staff. That’s where even a qualitative test would help. I’ve had two close calls in the past couple of months (Iberia… ) and the US CBP people are getting nosier all the time.

Quantitative tests do exist, but I'm not sure if they're that aussagekräftig without proper analysis if you're wondering about "how good did my vaccination work", "how long will it last", etc.
The ones I've read about claim that recently fully vaccinated people should be off the charts in their reporting

 

[Dr_Grip]

Minor update on the India variant and it's spread in England: It is spreading like crazy. Faster even than the Kent variant.
But it is doing so only in the age groups not eligible for vaccination yet*, indicating the vaccine coverage England has achieved among those eligible is enough to curb it in, even with the slightly lower baseline efficacy of AstraZeneca compared to BioNTech/the vaccination poster child Israel. Very comforting data that once again emphasizes that we are only out of this when vaccination reached as many age groups as possible.

*Under-40s still are not getting a shot in England so far, and for those between 40 and 50 the campaign is still ongoing.

 

[narf]

Since the GPs have started vaccinating, the German data granularity has dropped - they're only reporting "over 60" or "under 60"
But, this week there's been an RKI guesstimate based on 12 Länder reporting their non-GP numbers in greater detail:

TL;DR 1: >80% vaccination uptake already in the 70+ age group
TL;DR 2: only roughly 5-8 million 60+ people are still waiting for their first shot to get to >80%. Assuming 3M first shots a week and half of that going to 60+ people, Germany will be mostly done with first shots for old-ish folks by early June... so expect group 4 ("the rest") to be eligible everywhere very soon.

 

[jack_christie]

Bill Maher Tests Positive for COVID​

In a statement, HBO said Maher is “fully vaccinated” and “feels fine.”

Bill Maher Tests Positive for COVID, Forcing HBO to Table ‘Real Time’ Taping

The longtime host of HBO's 'Real Time with Bill Maher' is fully vaccinated and 'feels fine' according to the network.

variety.com

8 Yankees Players and Staff Test Positive for COVID-19 Despite Being Vaccinated Before Diagnosis​

"The Yankees can today confirm that INF Gleyber Torres has received a positive COVID-19 diagnosis. He was fully vaccinated and previously had COVID-19 during the most recent baseball offseason,"

8 Yankees Players and Staff Test Positive for COVID-19 Despite Being Vaccinated Before Diagnosis

Player Gleyber Torres tested positive for a second time months after battling COVID-19 in the offseason

www.yahoo.com

 

[93Flareside]

Bill Maher Tests Positive for COVID, Forcing HBO to Table ‘Real Time’ Taping

The longtime host of HBO's 'Real Time with Bill Maher' is fully vaccinated and 'feels fine' according to the network.

variety.com

8 Yankees Players and Staff Test Positive for COVID-19 Despite Being Vaccinated Before Diagnosis

Player Gleyber Torres tested positive for a second time months after battling COVID-19 in the offseason

www.yahoo.com

We're missing the point of the vaccine and dying. Sure you won't be on a ventilator, but at least it'll feel like a cold or something at worst.

 

[Punisher Bass]

I hesitate to get excited about the recent progress because there's enough idiots in this country who'll gleefully do anything they can to reverse the trend, but hey look at my local risk level.

 

[Dr_Grip]

Bill Maher Tests Positive for COVID, Forcing HBO to Table ‘Real Time’ Taping

The longtime host of HBO's 'Real Time with Bill Maher' is fully vaccinated and 'feels fine' according to the network.

variety.com

8 Yankees Players and Staff Test Positive for COVID-19 Despite Being Vaccinated Before Diagnosis

Player Gleyber Torres tested positive for a second time months after battling COVID-19 in the offseason

www.yahoo.com

So, at 85% efficacy against asymptomatic infection for Pfizer/BioNTech, and we-don't-even-have-a-number-but-a-lot-less for J&J this is bound to happen. None of these people (except for one Yankees player) felt any symptoms, so this is the vaccines working as planned.
Also, as someone at Stat pointed out: The Yankees travel with a party of 50, and only 8 tested positive. This is the vaccine in action.

EDIT: This is also why everyone getting vaccinated is so important - if we are 10 fully vaccinated people in the Finnmeet sauna, even if one of us is spreading covid, the risk for someone else picking it up and taking it home where he could infect unvaccinated kids is close to zero, while an unvaccinated person would pose a spreading risk.

 

[jack_christie]

So, at 85% efficacy against asymptomatic infection for Pfizer/BioNTech, and we-don't-even-have-a-number-but-a-lot-less for J&J this is bound to happen. None of these people (except for one Yankees player) felt any symptoms, so this is the vaccines working as planned.
Also, as someone at Stat pointed out: The Yankees travel with a party of 50, and only 8 tested positive. This is the vaccine in action.

EDIT: This is also why everyone getting vaccinated is so important - if we are 10 fully vaccinated people in the Finnmeet sauna, even if one of us is spreading covid, the risk for someone else picking it up and taking it home where he could infect unvaccinated kids is close to zero, while an unvaccinated person would pose a spreading risk.

Isn't J&J is about 75%. Maybe a bit early to completely ditch masks and distancing.


Glad I got first shot of Moderna

 

[Dr_Grip]

Isn't J&J is about 75%. Maybe a bit early to completely ditch masks and distancing.

J&J has been tested with the goal "preventing moderate to severe covid" so a mild case like the Yankee player would count as a pass in their trial.

Masking and distancing, as I explained above, can be ditched as long as all persons are vaccinated - and as case numbers drop to Israel levels, for others as well.

EDIT: Also, one again - the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine (and possibly the Moderna one as well) is as effective against the original SARS as it is against current mutations. It stands to belive further immune escape as the South Africa mutation will be hard to achieve for the virus - and even if it does, vaccine updates are easy and the production lines are scaled up now.