BRexit : Shall UK stay in EU or go now?

argatoga

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To save time they'll have to copy all their fav EU laws into UK laws.
I see this happening as well (not just their favorite laws). Post divorce not much will change, except millions being wasted implementing the same laws that exist under the EU. Unlike Greece, the UK doesn't gain anything by leaving the EU (they kept control of their currency). I don't see doom or gloom ahead however. The UK market is big enough that European businesses will still want to sell to the UK and vice versa so trade will likely remain the same.

The dynamos of the EU are France and Germany, unless one of them leaves (highly unlikely) it will continue.
 

MacGuffin

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I see this happening as well (not just their favorite laws). Post divorce not much will change, except millions being wasted implementing the same laws that exist under the EU. Unlike Greece, the UK doesn't gain anything by leaving the EU (they kept control of their currency). I don't see doom or gloom ahead however. The UK market is big enough that European businesses will still want to sell to the UK and vice versa so trade will likely remain the same.

The dynamos of the EU are France and Germany, unless one of them leaves (highly unlikely) it will continue.
As I repeatedly explained before, there is absolutely nothing to gain for Britain from leaving the EU.

At best they can strike a similar deal as Norway or Switzerland have. But the British government seems to think they can keep all the goodies while getting rid of everything they don't want. I'm not sure yet if that is a loss of reality, simple stupidity or tactics in order to present themselves as victims of the EU when the negotiations fail. Maybe a bit of everything.

The EU is forced to make it as hart and painful for Britain as possible - not because they're spiteful or vindictive but to keep the rest pf the EU together: What signal would it send to other member states of you can have all the niceties but can get rid of the inconvenient stuff? If Britain wants to play hard, they will run into a very hard wall.

Don't forget that any result of the negotiations has to be ratified by all of the 28 member states. If only one member state says no, because they think Britain gets more than they deserve, the whole deal is off.

Knowing the way EU negotiations went in the past, there is no chance in hell they will make it within the given two years.



The whole process is incredible complex and has many side-effects people will not think of right now. For instance today I read this:

Future of Gibraltar at stake in Brexit negotiations
 
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argatoga

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As I repeatedly explained before, there is absolutely nothing to gain for Britain from leaving the EU.

At best they can strike a similar deal as Norway or Switzerland have. But the British government seems to think they can keep all the goodies while getting rid of everything they don't want. I'm not sure yet if that is a loss of reality, simple stupidity or tactics in order to present themselves as victims of the EU when the negotiations fail. Maybe a bit of everything.

The EU is forced to make it as hart and painful for Britain as possible - not because they're spiteful or vindictive but to keep the rest pf the EU together: What signal would it send to other member states of you can have all the niceties but can get rid of the inconvenient stuff? If Britain wants to play hard, they will run into a very hard wall.

Don't forget that any result of the negotiations has to be ratified by all of the 28 member states. If only one member state says no, because they think Britain gets more than they deserve, the whole deal is off.

Knowing the way EU negotiations went in the past, there is no chance in hell they will make it within the given two years.

The whole process is incredible complex and has many side-effects people will not think of right now. For instance today I read this:

Future of Gibraltar at stake in Brexit negotiations
France and Germany will bully the other nations to agree to the terms they decide. Although other nations could use the opportunity to make the two give them something in return. Greece can ask for money that won't go directly back to Germany. Other Eastern European nations could get concessions on boarder policies regarding migrants. While the UK isn't vital to France and Germany for trade, a hard break won't be pleasant for either of them.
 

calvinhobbes

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Another one for the "what is this I don't even" folder:

London battles to keep hold of two main EU agencies

Britain is fighting to remain the home of two of the EU?s most prestigious agencies covering medicines and banking after Brexit, in a move that is likely to cause astonishment in European capitals.

David Davis, Brexit secretary, does not accept that the two agencies and roughly 1,000 staff will have to move from London?s Canary Wharf, even though the EU is about to run a competition to relocate them.
WTF?
 
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Interrobang

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While everyone seems to agree that this is a good move for May and that this will likely strengthen Tory rule ... I still remember the time when our old chancellor Schr?der had a very similar Idea when he triggered an early election ... and then lost.

May is giving up having a (so far) working government mayority for something uncertain.
 

mpicco

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Well I hope she loses so we have even more entertainment

Sent from my XT1040 using Tapatalk
 

argatoga

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While everyone seems to agree that this is a good move for May and that this will likely strengthen Tory rule ... I still remember the time when our old chancellor Schr?der had a very similar Idea when he triggered an early election ... and then lost.

May is giving up having a (so far) working government mayority for something uncertain.
I think it's a good move. As long as Corbyn is in control of Labour it's a fractured and weak party. The worst outcome for the Tories is they won't loose any seats. Labour will loose seats to the Lib Dems as Corbyn has alienated the majority of his party.
 

mpicco

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Remember this gem?




Well, surprise surprise, it wasn't feasible.


The Independent said:
Jeremy Hunt admits he ?can?t deliver? ?350m a week promised for NHS by Brexit campaigners

Jeremy Hunt has admitted he ?can?t deliver? the extra ?350m a week promised for the NHS by Brexit campaigners.


The Health Secretary also said it would be a ?disaster? for the health service if a favourable agreement cannot be achieved in the already-bitter exit talks.


?The jobs that so many people depend on, whose taxes pay for the NHS. If we get a bad Brexit outcome, that would be disaster for the NHS,? he said




READ MORE
May pledges an extra 10,000 staff for NHS mental health services
On the BBC?s Andrew Marr programme, the Health Secretary was asked why the Conservatives were not promising the now-notorious extra ?350m pledged during the Brexit referendum.


He insisted voters wanted a ?credible promise?, arguing the Tories had already pumped in an extra ?6.5bn ?over the last few years?.


?We are not going to promise stuff that we can?t deliver,? Mr Hunt added.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/jeremy-hunt-brexit-350-million-nhs-cant-deliver-theresa-may-a-week-eu-a7722291.html
 

Interrobang

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[...]May pledges an extra 10,000 staff for NHS mental health services
They are going to need a couple of more 10000 Staff in that area since hospital and health services job are already those sort of jobs with lots of immigrants - because brits don't wanna do these jobs anymore. And since all those polish, german, whereeverfrom doctors, nurses etc are going "home" in 2 years ... there will be lots and lots of "openings" in all areas of the NHS.
 

eizbaer

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I rather like the UKIP result to be honest. As a European, that gives me a nice smug feeling...


Aaaanyway... the "now what?" sounds like an interesting question indeed!
 

Interrobang

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While everyone seems to agree that this is a good move for May and that this will likely strengthen Tory rule ... I still remember the time when our old chancellor Schr?der had a very similar Idea when he triggered an early election ... and then lost.

May is giving up having a (so far) working government mayority for something uncertain.
I'm such a smart man. The smartest man. Believe me. I have all the smarts. The best smarts.

And if I had a penny for every time a BBC news reporter said Breakfast instead of Brexit on the air today, I could go and buy these reporters the breakfast they so need and deserve.
 

MacGuffin

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I think it's a good move. As long as Corbyn is in control of Labour it's a fractured and weak party. The worst outcome for the Tories is they won't loose any seats. Labour will loose seats to the Lib Dems as Corbyn has alienated the majority of his party.
One thing I have learned in the past year: Never believe you can predict how an election or a vote turns out ;)
 

mpicco

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Yep, a lot of pedantic smug politicians should get down from their high horses. Obviously, living up in the stratosphere has affected their brains due to lack of oxygen.
 
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