Business Confidence - Guardian Article

LittleRed

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I read this article recently:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/aug/24/uk-recession-over-survey-suggests

Whilst reading said article I almost spat my cereal all over the screen, it sounds like the most pathetic drivel in the world. Just because people are feeling optimistic and confident doesn't actually mean the recession is over, does it, Mr. Guardian Man?

Any thoughts??


p.s. Not sure if this is the right section, move me along if it's not!
 

Brother Michael

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The article actually, while exaggerating, does make sense and is partially true.

No, the economic crisis/recession/end of days...whatever you want to call it, is far from over. HOWEVER things are slowly but surely turning around. And the main reason is that everyone is getting used to the current situation. Human beings are very adaptive creatures and this is no exeption. People have begun to feel normal and have gotten used to the fact that controlling one's own finance is now more important than anything. Businesses have been targeting their efforst to minimize losses and just staying afloat. Banks have slowly begun to give out loans again. The real estate market has been getting back to pace. I could go on for ages.

This is what we need right now, optimism, because I believe the worst has been avoided and now what we need the least is more mass hysteria and everyone going bananas about the world economics. Consumers are getting back to their usual habits, people are starting to spend money again, buying cars, clothes, homes, appliances and so forth.

This is showing around the world: even in the US there are signs of the car industry slowly turning things around, lead by Ford with their great example. Over here cars and houses have started going again.

I agree on the point, that it is not the end, not for a long while. The global economic system took a huge blow and it is going to take a significant amount of time to get things back where they were, but we are getting there. And now that the direction has been turning upwards, there is very little stopping the growth if everyone just goes on with their lives, just like before last autumn.

I know it's a hard to swallow for you Brits, but for once the Guardian does have a point.
 

wooflepoof

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Without reading the article, I'm just gunna say attitude is a massive factor in ending a depression/recession. People being scared and hoarding all their money is what'll make shit worse, but with confidence comes more spending and thats exactly what the economy needs. We the people are what make up the economy.
 

LittleRed

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Obviously the guardian is a middle-class newspaper and I wretched at it probably because I'm working class and my family was really badly hit by the recession (my dad was out of work for a very long time because construction slowed right down and literally no one was building anything.)

I think it's the tone of it that annoyed me more than anything, there are people deeply in debt and people who won't recover from the recession so easily and it may affect them for years afterwards because debt doesn't just 'go away.'

I read a few varied newspapers and none of them came out with anything like this, it sounds so casual, as if the recession doesn't matter and we'll be rolling in money before we know it, but I can't see it that way, maybe because I'm amongst the masses, some of the people that this thing has really hit hard and who can't go out and buy a new car if they needed one.

The way they use the word "confidence" as if it's a scientific fact annoys me, I bet they were confident when they were driving the economy off a cliff too.

Obviously I think we should be as positive as we can be, but thats hard when you're selling your possessions on amazon because there's no jobs around.

And I'm not about to start walking the streets at night! :|
 

Scooby5

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...... but with confidence comes more spending and thats exactly what the economy needs. We the people are what make up the economy.

Unfortunately that's greatly what got everybody in trouble, spending and more importantantly spending on credit and beyond their means.

Bad loans and unpaid credit is as big a problem for consumers as the trillions in debt now built up by governments to fund their stimulus packages. People going out to spend now only have to worry about how to pay for it given unemployment is still going up and for certain business sectors that certainly I work in, the worst will come only next year!

Large industrial, engineering and construction sectors so far this year are working through orders and projects received/started last year and the year before and i see the order books for next year........running in some cases at 1/3.

I hate talking up or talking down sentiment but at the moment........ there is a hell of a long way to go yet and consumer spending now, is only going to cause further problems later regardless of, on the short term, it works now.
 

wooflepoof

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Unfortunately that's greatly what got everybody in trouble, spending and more importantantly spending on credit and beyond their means.

Bad loans and unpaid credit is as big a problem for consumers as the trillions in debt now built up by governments to fund their stimulus packages. People going out to spend now only have to worry about how to pay for it given unemployment is still going up and for certain business sectors that certainly I work in, the worst will come only next year!

Large industrial, engineering and construction sectors so far this year are working through orders and projects received/started last year and the year before and i see the order books for next year........running in some cases at 1/3.

I hate talking up or talking down sentiment but at the moment........ there is a hell of a long way to go yet and consumer spending now, is only going to cause further problems later regardless of, on the short term, it works now.
Oh. my bad:) that sounds about right, i suppose this isnt the same deal at the great depression :p
 

Plissken

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The Guardian is the worst of the various British papers. Stick to the Telegraph and the Times.
There is so much wrong with that statement...

The most popular and respected online newspaper in the UK is the Grauniad. IIRC, Guardian Unlimited is in the top five UK web sites.

Along with the BBC news site, and the same people seem to hate both. Wonder why? </rhetorical question>
 

Goose+

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The way I see it, we're still in an entirely false market. Christ knows why the FTSE is still rising (not that I'm complaining).

I reckon Britain will either;

1) We MIGHT come out of recession this year, BUT when the inevitable tax and national insurance rises come, public spending decreases and the economy will be stagnant for the next decade. We'll be the sick man of Europe again. Also, when everyone's NI and taxes do rise it will only make a more convincing case for all those fat-welfare addicts to stay at home and not seek employment, oh great!

2) There will be a run on Sterling. Probably the best historian, Niall Fergusson estimates there being a 50% chance of this happening and I sure as hell trust him more than anyone else right now. Then we can all look forward to hyper-inflation and hell on earth.
 

Plissken

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The way I see it, we're still in an entirely false market. Christ knows why the FTSE is still rising (not that I'm complaining).
Because the stock market doesn't reflect reality.

Also, when everyone's NI and taxes do rise it will only make a more convincing case for all those fat-welfare addicts to stay at home and not seek employment, oh great!
Total UK Social Security budget: ?186bn
Total NHS budget: ?110bn

Total amount committed to bailing out the banks: ?130bn

You can blame the inevitable NI and tax rises on the fat, but it isn't the fault of the fat unemployed, it is the fat cats.
 
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