Covid 19 CRISIS

SirEdward

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But what if the virus mutates?
Also, given that we are becoming fast at isolating the severe cases while we have problems identifying with the very mild ones, the probability is higher than the virus mutates into a less severe form rather than the opposite: causing mild forms of the infection is better for the virus, from an evolutionary perspective, as it allows it to replicate and spread way more.
 

93Flareside

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Also, given that we are becoming fast at isolating the severe cases while we have problems identifying with the very mild ones, the probability is higher than the virus mutates into a less severe form rather than the opposite: causing mild forms of the infection is better for the virus, from an evolutionary perspective, as it allows it to replicate and spread way more.
Query, are we seeing any after effects as far as organ damage up to problems in the brain? Seems in the severe cases or the ones that survive have these problems.
 

Dr_Grip

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Query, are we seeing any after effects as far as organ damage up to problems in the brain? Seems in the severe cases or the ones that survive have these problems.
As with the flu, but for a higher percentage of cases, there is long term damage. There's two things here, one is #longcovid, where the body for an extended period of time does not go out of limp mode, people are not getting their strenght back even after "recovering". The other is actual physical damage, especially in the lungs. In SARS, we have seen partial or full recovery in most of these cases after a few months, so we still don't know how long-lasting it is. There is also weird side-effects like permanent loss of smell (which technically speaking is neurological/brain damage), which also are know from other viral infections (Jules' mom lost her sense of smell back in the 80s during a viral infection, and it never returned).

So again, as with people who develop no immunity, it's a numbers game - with 24 million people infected worldwide and counting, even super rare and odd side-effects will occur for hundreds of thousands of people and the media will pick it up.

Also, once again - I am not a medical doctor, all I am doing here is repeating what I learned on nature.com and sciencemag.org.
 
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93Flareside

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Dr_Grip

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Another example of not helpful political communication comes from the WHO.
"I hear the whole time: 'the vaccine is going to be the end of the pandemic'. Of course not!," the WHO's Hans Kluge said. "The end of the pandemic is the moment that we as a community are going to learn how to live with this pandemic."
At the same time, he is advocating for local lockdowns to contain the virus. So, his "positive message" of "learning to live with the pandemic" is lockdowns, social distancing, and restrictions on meeting people until kingdom come.

This makes even a considerate person like me want to burn my mask and join an illegal rave, as the "solution" promised is something society and human nature can not bear with.

If you want to know why a vaccine, according to him, will not end the pandemic?
"We don't even know if the vaccine is going to help all population groups. We are getting some signs now that it will help for one group and not for the other, and then if we have to order different vaccines, what a logistical nightmare!"

Yeah, right.

To me it seems like the WHO has gone off the rails since Trump cut funding, panicking that if they give any message of hope other countries might turn against them.
 
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93Flareside

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Another example of not helpful political communication comes from the WHO.
"I hear the whole time: 'the vaccine is going to be the end of the pandemic'. Of course not!," the WHO's Hans Kluge said. "The end of the pandemic is the moment that we as a community are going to learn how to live with this pandemic."
At the same time, he is advocating for local lockdowns to contain the virus. So, his "positive message" of "learning to live with the pandemic" is lockdowns, social distancing, and restrictions on meeting people until kingdom come.

This makes even a considerate person like me want to burn my mask and join an illegal rave, as the "solution" promised is something society and human nature can not bear with.

If you want to know why a vaccine, according to him, will not end the pandemic?
"We don't even know if the vaccine is going to help all population groups. We are getting some signs now that it will help for one group and not for the other, and then if we have to order different vaccines, what a logistical nightmare!"

Yeah, right.

To me it seems like the WHO has gone off the rails since Trump cut funding, panicking that if they give any message of hope other countries might turn against them.
They’re not helping. What the fuck.

I’m more worried about the anti-vaxxers.
 

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They’re not helping. What the fuck.

I’m more worried about the anti-vaxxers.
What they probably mean is that like measels, we will never fully contain covid, and if there's an outbreak people will have to be isolated (if there's measels outbreak in childcare facilities or schools over here, all children and unvaccinated parents routinely are isolated). But the wording is just so off that this message gets lost.

EDIT: One more thing - no one, including, but not limited to Pfizer, AstraZeneca or the WHO, knows how the vaccine trials are going. Only the monitoring boards of the local authorities running the trial even know who got the vaccine and who the placebo. Anything people say about "working only for some groups" is deducted from early stage and animal tests.
 
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Momentum57

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The statements by the WHO seemed realistic and informed by science that even a lay person could apply and reach the same conclusions. What isn't realistic is that people will listen to reason.

Another example of not helpful political communication comes from the WHO.
"I hear the whole time: 'the vaccine is going to be the end of the pandemic'. Of course not!," the WHO's Hans Kluge said. "The end of the pandemic is the moment that we as a community are going to learn how to live with this pandemic."
At the same time, he is advocating for local lockdowns to contain the virus. So, his "positive message" of "learning to live with the pandemic" is lockdowns, social distancing, and restrictions on meeting people until kingdom come.

"We don't even know if the vaccine is going to help all population groups. We are getting some signs now that it will help for one group and not for the other, and then if we have to order different vaccines, what a logistical nightmare!"

Yeah, right.

To me it seems like the WHO has gone off the rails since Trump cut funding, panicking that if they give any message of hope other countries might turn against them.
Let's say tommorow they said they have a vaccine. So everything is back to normal. No we need to have some testing durring that time social distance wear a mas. Ok ok ok so everything is back to normal after the testing. No we will have to roll the vaccine out some groups will be more vulnerable so to protect... I WANT NORMAL NOW! We may have to respond to local outbreaks between the roll out and vaccination. LA LA LA WE ARENT LISTENING SO ITS NORMAL.

Israel went back into lockdown. They have a society with a shared history of military service and looking out for each other. The US doesn't when our lockdown comes expect those same people "backing the blue" to be resistant to cops who enforce the lockdown.

They’re not helping. What the fuck.

I’m more worried about the anti-vaxxers.
I'm looking for it but the anti vaxxers are just the tip wait for the loons who call you a pedophile for listening to scientist.

https://www.abc4.com/news/top-stori...-attend-anti-mask-mandate-rally-in-st-george/

^ please watch that nonsense.

What they probably mean is that like measels, we will never fully contain covid, and if there's an outbreak people will have to be isolated (if there's measels outbreak in childcare facilities or schools over here, all children and unvaccinated parents routinely are isolated). But the wording is just so off that this message gets lost.

EDIT: One more thing - no one, including, but not limited to Pfizer, AstraZeneca or the WHO, knows how the vaccine trials are going. Only the monitoring boards of the local authorities running the trial even know who got the vaccine and who the placebo. Anything people say about "working only for some groups" is deducted from early stage and animal tests.
Expectation management I'd say a year maybe two before life without mask and social distancing. Even then this will linger in people's conscious and have changed our view of normal. This would be my best case scenario.
 
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Dr_Grip

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@Momentum57 as, sadly, per usual, the good points you make (vaccine rollout will not be instant) are overshadowed by your trademark mixture of confusion, hatred, and cynicism. Especially the LA LA parts are not really helping. I feel sorry you live in a hell hole but most people on this forum aren't.

Also, sadly, the tonality of your post kills any motivation to engage with you (I'd like to talk about how Israel is in the same deep shit as Iran due to religious fanatics driving policy, for example).

And in the end, "it will take year or two to get out of this mess" is exactly the kind of clear messaging in am direly missing from (european) political leadership.
 

Momentum57

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My mother literally refused to hold my hand when I was a child and now I refuse to treat adults like children with pointless hand holding. I think the backlash over mitigation efforts are the moans of idiots who will continue to spread the virus and make it worse all while bellyaching about how the virus keeps spreading.

This is why the best case scenario won't happen in the US and we will have rolling lockdowns, mass infections, vaccine violence (both anti-vaxxers but people trying to get vaccines), continued social distancing, a ravaged economy. Call Disney you want to dress that up to make people feel better.

Post Edit: I have a declarative tone which is how you get declarative statements like "a year maybe two". The same evidence I use to inform that view is available though often candy coated which only makes my cynicism seem all the more valid.
 
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Momentum57

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i'm so sorry for you, it must be hard growing up without love or acceptance from your own mother
No, she just didn't like disgusting, sweaty, little, freak hands. Yeah it brings up some things when I came out. This isn't about my acceptance.


This is a good example of what sounds like a lie from word one to an optimistic embellishment.
 
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93Flareside

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Either that or Russia’s vaccine is being delivered. I think that a vaccine comes from the US before Trump is gone will be from there. Purely on the basis of trying to make him look good even when it kills people.
 

Momentum57

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Either that or Russia’s vaccine is being delivered. I think that a vaccine comes from the US before Trump is gone will be from there. Purely on the basis of trying to make him look good even when it kills people.
They don't just drop off vaccine. The idea would be they would give source material and process. Even if they did so testing, manufacturing, distribution...

It's an out right lie and regardless of where they actually are with a vaccine Trump will claim it's done. On January 1st 2021 I think we'll be at 400,000 dead, a vaccine that's not available, and a group of crazy maskless people who refuse to wash their hands or stay 6ft apart.

Nothing has changed.
 

Dr_Grip

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@Momentum57 Check your sources. Your bias is as much of a problem as is the Trumpists. What the CDC actually says that they believe vaccine rollout will begin in late 2020/early 2021, but it will be until mid-2021 ("late Q2/early Q3") until the vaccination campaign will have reached enough people to return to normal.

The real problem is that the question of a covid vaccine, at least in the US, is no longer one of public health or scientific research, but of political partisanship. You believe a vaccine will be available soon? You must be a Trumpist! You believe it will take longer? Bloody liberal!

It would be helpful to look at the actual research - nine vaccines worldwide are in late-stage trials and even if two third of these fail, some will come through. Maybe Pfizer get lucky and actually have convincing results by October (remember -their vaccine is developed by a German company, outside Trump's reach). Maybe all current frontrunners will fail and it'll be a quarter or two longer. It does not matter, because in terms of the bigger picture its totally irrelevant if we will start vaccinating in December, January, March or April.

But maybe I am just any of the insults you throw around at people who don't share your pessimism. In any case, this is the last time I will engage with a post from you.

In maybe positiv news, South Africa joins Sweden as a country with infections dropping due to background immunity.
 
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gaasc

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It's even more of a problem, as it seems to be covered under the banner of self-righteousness and, from what I can gather, it spreads everywhere. If we begin a thread about an apple falling off of a tree it will be because Trump ordered its execution. Take that shit to the politics thread and stay there.
 

Momentum57

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What the CDC actually says that they believe vaccine rollout will begin in late 2020/early 2021, but it will be until mid-2021 ("late Q2/early Q3") until the vaccination campaign will have reached enough people to return to normal.
That is exactly what I've been saying.

Expectation management I'd say a year maybe two before life without mask and social distancing. Even then this will linger in people's conscious and have changed our view of normal. This would be my best case scenario.
VS

This makes even a considerate person like me want to burn my mask and join an illegal rave, as the "solution" promised is something society and human nature can not bear with.
Which is why I think you're angry with me that I'm saying you are being irrational in thinking that a vaccine existing does not mean the end to wearing mask or social distancing and that normal will be forever changed.

Let's say tommorow they said they have a vaccine. So everything is back to normal. No we need to have some testing durring that time social distance wear a mas. Ok ok ok so everything is back to normal after the testing. No we will have to roll the vaccine out some groups will be more vulnerable so to protect... I WANT NORMAL NOW! We may have to respond to local outbreaks between the roll out and vaccination. LA LA LA WE ARENT LISTENING SO ITS NORMAL.
Congrats on not engaging with me and proving me wrong that you would say LA LA LA WE ARENT LISTENING SO ITS NORMAL.
 

Dr_Grip

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Congrats on not engaging with me and proving me wrong that you would say LA LA LA WE ARENT LISTENING SO ITS NORMAL.
See, and this is why I do not engage with you - you belittle me, I do not appreciate that. Also, you win the @realdonaldtrump Gold Medal for out of context quotes.
 
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