Covid 19 CRISIS

Dr_Grip

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I think at this point it is becoming apparent that even those governments who listened to science (and the scientists advising them) massively underestimated the seasonal impact on covid. The explosion in cases we are seeing almost everywhere can't just be explained with immigrant mass weddings and student parties.

This also means that a containment approach across several years now is out of the window.

We are left with the choice of either doing the Chinese/New Zealand route of super strict lockdown and mass testing until there is not a single case left or having the vaccine which hopefully will materialize soon rolled out by September 2021, even if that means making the shot mandatory.

What about "herd immunity"? Even with "only" 0.2% of infected dying, this is millions of people in the EU alone and totally unacceptable.
 

calvinhobbes

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There was an outbreak in the district where my parents live, some 120 people got infected in a nearby town.

Reason? They are religious types and obviously Trust the Lord (tm) more than masks and distancing.
 

Perc

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There was an outbreak in the district where my parents live, some 120 people got infected in a nearby town.

Reason? They are religious types and obviously Trust the Lord (tm) more than masks and distancing.

Same thing happened in Jyväskylä, Finland too. Some private church that sounded like it has its roots in French speaking Africa ended up being a Corona hotspot.

There's a finnish word: "Kalsarikännit" or underwear drinking. It means staying at home and getting drunk by yourself with no intention of heading to the pub. It used to be frowned upon but right now it's the smart thing to do.

I guess someone should invent "underwear faith" too, because I refuse to believe that it isn't perfectly possible to sit at home and believe in god on your own.
 

Blind_Io

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Remember that evolution and mutation happens on both sides of the disease-host equation. Even if we kill off everyone who is susceptible to the virus, that virus will constantly be mutating to find new infection vectors. It's already happened in the short time it's been in the human population.

Viruses can mutate faster than humans.
 

93Flareside

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Remember that evolution and mutation happens on both sides of the disease-host equation. Even if we kill off everyone who is susceptible to the virus, that virus will constantly be mutating to find new infection vectors. It's already happened in the short time it's been in the human population.

Viruses can mutate faster than humans.

That's no way to talk about those from Alabama! :shakefist:

(I kid)
 

calvinhobbes

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Remember that evolution and mutation happens on both sides of the disease-host equation.
IIRC, mutations in the virus RNA allowed the initial outbreaks on the US west and east coasts to be traced to people coming in from China and Europe, respectively. So perhaps this virus mutates particularly fast, which is another reason not to assume immunity if you have overcome an infection.

It would have been nice, but alas this is still the year 2020.
 

Dr_Grip

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Covid is not the flu. It is relatively slow to mutate. And if it will mutate, evolutionary advantage will be with less severe versions (cause a dead host cant spread). Drosten pointed out there was one strain that was more infections but only attacked the upper respiratory tract, making it basically another common cold. Sadly, that died out.

And regarding immunity - one of the major vaccine players ran their vaccine against all know mutations and it worked against all in vitro.

Mankind wouldn't have come all this way if a virus could simply kill us all. This is no mankind ending superbug.
 
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calvinhobbes

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Did the bit about slow mutations also come from Drosten? It’s been a while since I listened to that podcast, seems like I have some catching up to do.

As for immunity, I was basing that on the cases of reinfection. While there weren’t many documented cases, I still consider them reason enough to remain careful. Once vaccines are available, the entire issue of immunity will change.

And no, this isn’t a “superbug”, but still one with unacceptable consequences if ignored.
 

Blind_Io

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Covid is not the flu. It is relatively slow to mutate. And if it will mutate, evolutionary advantage will be with less severe versions (cause a dead host cant spread). Drosten pointed out there was one strain that was more infections but only attacked the upper respiratory tract, making it basically another common cold. Sadly, that died out.

And regarding immunity - one of the major vaccine players ran their vaccine against all know mutations and it worked against all in vitro.

Mankind wouldn't have come all this way if a virus could simply kill us all. This is no mankind ending superbug.
I agree, I was just pointing out that the virus changes faster than humans do, so we can't assume that herd immunity is going to end this bug. As you said, it's more likely to continue as a very limited population selector; which can reduce the impact of herd immunity. Influenza is a perfect example of this, it has a low death rate and a fast mutation cycle; it's not likely to kill you, so the bug continues. COVID is more deadly and doesn't mutate as quickly - but it still isn't hitting that evolutionary threshold to significantly reduce the human population based on a particular susceptibility.
 
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Dr_Grip

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Thank you!

Here's a good writeup on Immunity and Reinfection:
https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/10/14/immunity-and-re-infection

I, for one, found it interesting that the person who "got reinfected and died" was not only 89 years old but also battling leukemia. With her immune system nonexistant, of course she got reinfected. She probably would have gotten infected with measels even after vaccination.

All in all, most people seem to be developing what Drosten and others call "functional immunity": Yes, you get reinfected, but no, you don't get seriously ill. Reports about several comletely asmptomatic "silent reinfections" found during routine tests of medical staff in India point into this direction, for example:

“I clearly expect lasting and relevant immunity that is almost sterilizing immunity against SARS-2 in almost every person infected with SARS-2,” Drosten, director of the Institute of Virology at Berlin’s Charité University Hospital, said via email.

“It may be possible to become infected again, without any change in the virus. The resulting infection will be mild or asymptomatic, with significantly lower levels of virus replication and onward transmission.”
https://www.statnews.com/2020/08/25/four-scenarios-on-how-we-might-develop-immunity-to-covid-19/

And regarding mutations, again, Derek Lowe:
https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/06/19/a-wide-look-at-coronavirus-mutants
 

Blind_Io

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Thanks for a very thoughtful reply. My concern with low-level symptom reinfection isn't so much for someone like myself, but that it can keep the disease spreading and put high risk individuals at ongoing risk for infection. I have several people in my life who have had essentially zero social contact in the last 9 months because COVID-19 has a very good chance of killing them. From a population-wide perspective, the decreased symptoms in reinfection are a good thing - but on an individual level, and in many ways an economic level, it's still very worrying.
 

Dr_Grip

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Agreed, which is why we need a vaccine stat.
 

NecroJoe

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My brother's wife's really-beloved grandmother has it, and they need to decide to put her in a ventilator or not. They live in rural Wisconsin, and I know my brother and his wife have been reluctant participants in the general "chose life over fear" philosophy everyone there seems to have, which extra sucks.
 

93Flareside

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My brother's wife's really-beloved grandmother has it, and they need to decide to put her in a ventilator or not. They live in rural Wisconsin, and I know my brother and his wife have been reluctant participants in the general "chose life over fear" philosophy everyone there seems to have, which extra sucks.


Jeez so what did they decide?
 
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