Covid 19 CRISIS

93Flareside

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Dr_Grip

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Here's one of many reminders as to how "experts" treated the covid perspective in April:
https://www.businessinsider.com/cor...impossible-to-produce-scientists-covid-2020-4

At some point, one should compile a list of experts and media talking heads who got it very wrong and who should not be trusted again, ever. There's a lot of people in line to be hung from lamposts before them, but they should be on the list as well.

Back in the real word, here's a "covid vaccine open questions" roundup by Derek Lowe, in Jeopardy format as an Alex Trebek tribute (Derek Lowe was a Jeopardy contestant in the 90s):
Taken together, this study, several others over the past few months, and this recent work all paint a consistent picture of a strong, normal, lasting immune response in the great majority of patients. Add in the results we’re seeing from the two vaccines that have reported interim data so far, and I think that the prospects for lasting immunity from vaccination are also very good.
[...]
I think that the efficacy levels we’re seeing are indeed going to be epidemic-breaking if we can get sufficient numbers of people vaccinated. Right now we’re up around the efficacy of the measles vaccine, which is very effective against a virus that is far more infectious than SARS-Cov-2. . .if enough people take it.
[...]
From what we’ve been seeing with the Spike protein, evading the current antibodies looks like it’s going to be difficult to do while retaining infectiousness at the same time. We already know from a Pfizer analysis that many of the common mutations are just as susceptible to neutralizing antibodies raised by their vaccine.
[...]
Rare side effects and long-term ones are still possible, but based on what we’ve seen with other vaccines, they do not look to be anywhere at all significant compared to the pandemic we have in front of us.
https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/11/18/vaccine-possibilities
 
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Punisher Bass

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This may sound a little wonky at first glance considering it's killed a quarter million people and counting, but covid actually has had one positive effect on this country.

Notice how there's been a complete lack of mass shootings since March? No Sandy Hooks, Parklands, synagogue's, or Vegas' that have happened since people been staying home. It's really really fucked up that it took a world wide pandemic to finally make a dent in that statistic, and it's even more fucked up that when this over it will go right back to what it was.
 

Momentum57

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This may sound a little wonky at first glance considering it's killed a quarter million people and counting, but covid actually has had one positive effect on this country.

Notice how there's been a complete lack of mass shootings since March? No Sandy Hooks, Parklands, synagogue's, or Vegas' that have happened since people been staying home. It's really really fucked up that it took a world wide pandemic to finally make a dent in that statistic, and it's even more fucked up that when this over it will go right back to what it was.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mass_shootings_in_the_United_States_in_2020

There hasn't been a really big mass shooting that has been done and in the news but there have been mass shootings.

Also some of those would be shooters have found a home in hate groups... So I guess that's a positive.
 

Blind_Io

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So many places are in Damage Control mode right now. I just got an email from my work with "Social Media Guidelines" - instructions on what they do and don't want employees posting online. They want us to share our personal experiences, official company content, instructions from doctors and epidemiologists, and things that are "positive". We are supposed to avoid posting specific bed census information/capacity, or identify things as "Update from (facility/company name)"

These are all good, but it's interesting to see how much control they want over optics on employees private social media accounts, but they won't publicly pressure the governor to take strong action.
 

93Flareside

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So many places are in Damage Control mode right now. I just got an email from my work with "Social Media Guidelines" - instructions on what they do and don't want employees posting online. They want us to share our personal experiences, official company content, instructions from doctors and epidemiologists, and things that are "positive". We are supposed to avoid posting specific bed census information/capacity, or identify things as "Update from (facility/company name)"

These are all good, but it's interesting to see how much control they want over optics on employees private social media accounts, but they won't publicly pressure the governor to take strong action.

I wish I knew why.

In other news, as of yesterday, dad and mom are feeling better so mom decided that since she's had a car repair appointment set that she made from 3 months ago to keep it, she brought her car in today. I have no idea how risky this would be, but I can't imagine it's a good thing and something that could have been moved a week.
 

Blind_Io

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Glad they are feeling better. I'd just want to make sure that she's not contagious.
 

Blind_Io

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Horray, Utah! You flattened the curve over the summer by putting it in perspective with fall numbers.
1605807902938.png


These numbers are underreported, parents are actively trying to avoid getting their kids tested so schools don't close.
 
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Kiki

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So... it's been interesting to hear about local vaccine plans/timelines now.

This week, our local timeline is projected to be:

Phase 1: Hospitals and Long Term Care Facilities | Jan - March
Phase 2: High Risk Groups and Essential Workers | March - July
Phase 3: General Public | July+

https://www.kuer.org/health-science...out-of-covid-19-vaccine-starting-mid-december

Logistics are going to be horrendous... Pfizer's vaccine needs to be stored at -70 ... hoping that this won't be a barrier for rural areas etc.
 

Dr_Grip

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Wow, I am a bit surprised at the slow rollout. In the bigger picture, a month or two won't matter, but looking at the German plans the timeline is much more ambitious.

I only have the info for my state, the city of Berlin, with 3.6 million inhabitants. We will start with high risk groups, an estimated 490K people. Given the planned capacity of approx 20K shots per day, and a six day workweek, we should be able to adminster 120K doses a week. So, even keeping ramp-up in mind, that's 60K people a week, so nine weeks for the high-risk group. That puts us in the first week of March. Then, 90K medical and care personell will follow, so a mere two weeks until we will get to essential workers, which will probably blend into the general public, in late March/early April.

I fully expect to get my shot during April, hopefully early enough to have developed antibodies for my dad's birtday on May 1st.
 

Kiki

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Nice - that's impressive! I'm hoping that everything goes according to plan. It's really interesting to hear how different areas are planning for the vaccine distribution.
 

Matt2000

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Must be difficult for people in the US and around the world, 'we're' only worrying about Christmas here as that's the only celebration (in general) in a short space of time and are in theory managing the lockdowns now to lead up to a potential 'free' Christmas. For others taht have multiple celebrations (I refuse to say holidays) it isn't going to work the same and that's a bummer. Hopefully people can still enjoy themselves (turkey twice within a month - how greedy?!).

I don't post in here... ever really but the news about the vaccines is promising and welcome, a lot of people have worked very hard to get them done as fast. I don't mind how long it takes to get to me (if ever), every vulnerable person vaccinated is a step in the right direction. I did laugh when they suggested on the news here that vets and dentists would be brought in among others to administer the shots, at least people won't get worms!
 

Punisher Bass

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I got the same notification on my phone yesterday.

It's getting worse by the day here, I'm not even going to bother posting the charts. But the hospitals are just... holy fuck people. On this side of the river we're at 80% capacity, on the other they're at 90%. It's so bad they're now moving adult covid patients to the children's hospitals.
 

Dr_Grip

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I'd like to be overtly political for a moment and ask why the WHO is so damn useless in the pandemic, I'd even say, since Trump "quit", they are in headless chicken mode.

There's stuff that's okay, like reacting to scientific progress and making a 180° turn on Remdesivir as new data comes in. Then there's stuff that's questionable and means the WHO is not leading the world's covid response, but following, like still refusing to accept aerosol transmission of covid after most countries already updated their policy to reflect the fact.

But the worst offender here is David Nabarro, Special Envoy for COVID. Here are some of his best contributions to the pandemic:
  • In May, while several vaccine candidate were already in human trials, making "a vaccine might never be possible" official WHO position
  • Questioning lockdowns and praising Sweden's covid policy all the way until September, when the second wave already was in full swing
  • Now, as numbers look shit all across the EU, he's suddenly accusing the EU governments of "not doing enough", and warning before a "thrid wave" in January.
This is no way to lead a pandemic response. This is looking at the current tendency in cases and reacting off the cuff.
 

Dr_Grip

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So, we got interim data from AstraZeneca/Oxford. As mainstream news report "only" 70% efficiacy, I am waiting for Derek Lowe's take, since the real news from the press release seems to be a lot better:
These preliminary data indicate that the vaccine is 70.4% effective, with tests on two different dose regimens showing that the vaccine was 90% effective if administered at a half dose and then at a full dose, or 62% effective if administered in two full doses.

So, to me as a layman it looks like the lower dosing regimen actually provides protection at roughly the same level as the mRNA candidates. A 5% lower protection level seems like an ok tradeoff for storage in a standard fridge, especially trying to bring the vaccine to rural communities and developing countries. But again, I am not a pharmacologist, so let's wait for Derek to weigh in.

EDIT: Maybe it's my PhD on Morality of Warfare getting the better of me, but it feels like there is a certain gloating in the German press that the British vaccine is "only 70%" effective, with the German product being vastly superior. Understanding that Oxford tested two different dosing regimens should be within the grasp of even the intern feeding the 24 hour covid news ticker.
 
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