Covid 19 CRISIS

calvinhobbes

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Punisher Bass

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Last Monday they opened a mass vaccination site about 10 minutes away from my house, and they gave around 1000 shots on Saturday alone, so that's good. Buuuuuut there's no telling how steady their supply is going to be. They opened up pre registration several weeks ago and signed my mom and I both up soon as I could, we called into the hotline they setup a few days ago to confirm we're on the waiting list but we have no idea how long we'll have to wait.
 

Dr_Grip

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We are in the slump of two weeks of reduced deliveries from Pfizer right now, daily vaccination rates have dropped by a third. Pfizer had to shut down one of their plants for upgrades, but say they can compensate by end of February, will be overdelivering on their schedule by end of Q1, and will overdeliver by 75 Million(!) doses in Q2.
Also, BioNTech started production at their new-to-them Marburg plant (like the Tesla/NUMMI/GM Fremont plant, the Marburg facility has made it's rounds through big pharma for years). They say they will be cranking out 250 Million doses during the ramp-up in H1, and then reach a capacity of 750 Million/year. This means that plant alone can supply Europe, Canada, and probably parts of the middle east with yearly boosters.
 

Perc

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So far, none of us mere mortals (not 80+, not healthcare workers) aren't even anywhere close to getting a shot here in Finland as far as I know.
 

Dr_Grip

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So far, none of us mere mortals (not 80+, not healthcare workers) aren't even anywhere close to getting a shot here in Finland as far as I know.
The US also only offers the vaccine to certain groups - as always, though, they distribute mostly by skin color and wealth.

Finland says under-70s will start by Mid-March. That's more or less the same schedule Germany's on so expect the general public to be able to join in by June or so.
 

jack_christie

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Dr Andy Slavitt was on Chris Hayes the other day talking how the US will have 600m vaccine does delivered by July and it now possible for the US to have everyone vaccinated by the end of the summer.

Dr Peter Hotze has been campaigning for the US to be doing 3m vaccines a day and aim to vaccine everyone in five months, and reduce variant spread.

Looks like its possible now. Probably what every country should be aiming for.

11th Feb
 

narf

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Dr Andy Slavitt was on Chris Hayes the other day talking how the US will have 600m vaccine does delivered by July and it now possible for the US to have everyone vaccinated by the end of the summer.
Do eeeet! I want to come stateside again in October 🤞
 

Dr_Grip

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Yep, we all are aiming at being done with this until Summer's over.
 

Punisher Bass

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The weather has turned into a nightmare, up to -30 degree windchills expected, up to 6 inches of snow tonight with another 4-6 in a few days, so they're suspending all of the local drive through covid testing and vaccinations until things warm up a bit.

But in a little bit of good news, my area has hit a new low on the risk factor, so yay?

covid feb 21.png
 

jack_christie

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Johnson & Johnson has applied for authorization for its coronavirus vaccine in the EU, however its not proving to be effective against variants.

German, mRNA based CureVac, in phase 3, stable at least 3 months at 36–46°F (2–8°C), possible 300m doses this year. Will be interesting to see if its effective against variants.


Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker​


Coronavirus Drug and Treatment Tracker​


Coronavirus Variants and Mutations​

 

Dr_Grip

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Johnson & Johnson has applied for authorization for its coronavirus vaccine in the EU, however its not proving to be effective against variants.
Citation needed for the second part - my last info was "no hospitalizations and no severe cases" even with variants...
 

narf

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Citation needed for the second part - my last info was "no hospitalizations and no severe cases" even with variants...
From the first link: "But when the company looked at just severe cases of Covid-19, the vaccine had an efficacy against severe disease of 85% in all the regions" where South Africa is one of said regions. Seems fine to me.
 

narf

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Did a bit of playing around with the German numbers that impfdashboard.de so kindly provides in an easily digestable, automatable format...


1613569700734.png

Daily doses in blue, purely-math-based continuation in green (note the massively wide 95% confidence interval), sum in orange. This pretty much assumes that the speedup of the past two or so weeks continues.
No political or otherwise outside influences are in here, e.g. the recent addition of AZ to the arsenal isn't reflected.


1613570595050.png

Available stockpile per manufacturer 🤓
 

jack_christie

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Citation needed for the second part - my last info was "no hospitalizations and no severe cases" even with variants...
Seems to be from an AFP report

 

jack_christie

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narf

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Seems to be from an AFP report

Those two articles are exactly the same text:
"J&J announced in late January that clinical trials showed the vaccine was overall 66 percent effective and 85 percent effective in preventing severe forms of the disease.

But it did not protect as well against a highly transmissible virus variant first identified in South Africa, which is spreading rapidly around the world"

That oversimplifies the difference between protection against severe cases (similar numbers for regular, British, South African) and against mild cases (less against South African)... see your own NYT links for a more differentiated description. More news isn't better news.
 

jack_christie

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Interesting to see if SA use J&J, or give it away like the AZ.
 
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