Covid 19 CRISIS

Perc said:
I guess it's what happens when everyone involved realizes this is serious business and nothing that should be delayed while shuffling it around between different bureaucrats.
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Having worked in (non-medical) research myself, I can assure you this is mostly about funding. In the current situation, no one will crucify a researcher who switches focus to "blood clodding in vaccines" instead of doing whatever her research grant is for.
 
Distribution of the 48000 AZ vaccines that made it to the country is now underway adding this means we now have enough vaccines for 0.53% of the population.

Meanwhile, we have a lot of these


Yup. Fake Sputnik V's are being either manufactured or transported via mexico to central america. Specifically, Honduras. Already there are investigations underway, which I am sure will come to fruition far too late for anything. The ads on FB Marketplace and through WhatsApp are already replicating en masse.

I do wonder what our real to fake vaccine ratio is.
 
Momentum57 said:
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What a difference a year makes
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I got my second shot today and it went much quicker than it did three weeks ago. They really got their shit together because last time it took around 20 minutes just to get through the gate while today I was there about a half hour total if that. They doubled the number of vaccine stations and quadrupled the observation area, so they're getting people in and out rapid fire.

As for side effects, my arm hurts worse than it did last time and I'm really tired but I'm not out of commission or anything, we'll see what happens tomorrow.
 
I have #2 (huh, huh) next Friday. I'm a little worried since it's scheduled at the bigger site in San Antonio, which is good because they get folks in and out fast and super-organized. That's not so good given that it's about 1-2 hours south of here, depending on how garbage traffic is, and I started aching en route back from the first one. Apparently Pfizer #2 is worse? Great. I have the day off, but oof. Maybe I can just crash on Harris Hill's couch, lol. Sleep in my Volkswagen.

The rollout for actually getting a vaccine in Austin has apparently been a bit of a mess, with glitches in signups and generally too few vaccines to go around. I guess I traded drive time for time spent F5'ing a web signup. Welp.
 
Meanwhile, German media still paints scenarios of a collapsing vaccination campaign.

I ran some real-world numbers (and if I made a mistake, @narf surely will point it out). We are getting there. Slowly, probably a month or two behind UK/US, but we are getting there:
  • As of Friday night 7,2 Mio/8,7% of the German populace have been vaccinated
  • That's more than 10% of those eligible (which is the number we should be reporting first place - but I will work from population percentage below anyways)
  • Currently (before the AZ stoppage) we run at 900K/1,1% first shots per week
  • So we can assume we will end March at 10-11% of the populace vaccinated.

  • Premise 1: 50% of all vaccines available go to first shots. That's pessimistic twice since it neither accounts for the 12-week AstraZeneca window nor the J&J vaccine only needing one shot. But it makes the math easier.
  • Premise 2: Infrastructure scale-up both in vaccination hubs and GP practices will work as planned
  • Premise 3: The pessimism in Premise 1 will compensate for missed AZ deliveries
  • Premise 4: For the sake of simplicity, we assume a similar vaccine uptake and distribution speed nationwide.

  1. The plan for April assumes 2,25 Mio doses per week in the vaccination hubs. Here, we'll be able to give first shots to roughly 5 Mio/6% of the populace.
  2. GPs will join with 1 Mio shots in the first week of April, ramping up to 3.2 Mio in the last. Let's assume they'll provide first shots to another 4 Mio/5% of the populace.
  3. This means in April alone we will vaccinate as many people as in all of Q1. We will end the month between 20% and 25% of the populace vaccinated.
  4. The last week of April will see 2.7 mio first shots. Scaled to a month that's a good 12 Mio, so 15% of the populace.
  5. If we only are able to keep this pace, without scaling up more (again, a pessimistic assumption) we will have reached between 50 and 55% of the populace vacinated by end of June, that's around 45 million people.
  6. This means during July we will reach the approx. 50Mio/70% eligible for a shot that are waiting for one. From then onwards, the game changes to convincing those unsure or sceptic.
As mentioned in Premise 2, the supply side is the huge question mark here - while we are expecting enough doses for 53 Mio people until the end of Q2, no one knows whether especially AZ and Moderna will keep up with their contractual obligations. But as you can see, my reasonable worst case above already accounts for 8mio less.
But as a more positive spanner thrown into this timeline, maybe we will see a BioNTech approval for kids over 12 before summer - that would of course add another 10 million eligible persons to the line, pushing us back two weeks or so.
 
Dr_Grip said:
I ran some real-world numbers (and if I made a mistake, @narf surely will point it out). We are getting there.
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Seems roughly legit :nod:

I don't expect a long-lasting AZ slowdown from a shot-in-arms point of view, because the pause happened while we're still supply-limited - in principle we have the capacity to catch up quickly.
What may of course happen is bureaucracy getting in the way, not being flexible enough to quickly catch up the ~500k missed first AZ shots soon in order to maintain the second shot appointment.
What may also happen is an even-more-increased fear of AZ, which would require even more flexibility in eligibility than during the "no 65+ allowed for AZ" phase.

Given that Q1 is almost over, time to take stock of deliveries... comparing actual deliveries so far plus planned deliveries for the rest of March with the plans from end of 2020 https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/politik/corona-impfstoff-lieferung-prognose-100.html
AZ is looking to under-deliver by 32% (there is a massive KW13 shipment still on the books which would account for most of that, but as of now I'm not believing that)
BioNTech is looking to over-deliver by 2%
Moderna is looking to match the planned amount [though over 60% of the total Q1 amount is planned for the last third of March, so we'll see if it materializes...].

tl;dr: everything's going according to plan, roughly.
 
AZ also probably have a bit of a stockpile at the plant they are now trying to get approved
 
@narf Moderna just got their plant in Switzerland online a few weeks ago, so that may just work out...
 
Study data from the AstraZeneca Phase 3 trial in the US! This trial is super-relevant as it is run by the same governing body and to the same rules as the Pfizer and Moderna trials before.

Stat reports:
The two-dose vaccine reduced symptomatic disease by 79%, the company said in a press release, and reduced severe Covid-19 and hospitalization by 100%. AstraZeneca said that the vaccine was equally effective in people over 65, where it had 80% efficacy.

The company said the study identified no new safety concerns. A specific review found no risk of blood clots, worries about which led many European nations to pause their vaccine rollouts last week.
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Dr_Grip said:
Study data from the AstraZeneca Phase 3 trial in the US! This trial is super-relevant as it is run by the same governing body and to the same rules as the Pfizer and Moderna trials before.

Stat reports:
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It's a study with low five figure participants. It can't make any predictions for side-effects that happen once per six figure people, probably not even reliable predictions for side-effects that happen once per five figure people.
 
narf said:
It's a study with low five figure participants. It can't make any predictions for side-effects that happen once per six figure people, probably not even reliable predictions for side-effects that happen once per five figure people.
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it has nothing to do with anything but your post look like a glitch in the matrix on my screen size. Everything lines up.

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Looks like we're moving ahead in Illinois for opening vaccinations to every a little earlier than the planned April 12th date.

patch.com

New Forest Park Vaccination Site Opens To All Illinoisans Friday

The IL National Guard will begin giving shots in Forest Park's former HOBO store March 26, and rural vaccine clinics will start this week.
patch.com patch.com
 
*facepalm*
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