Covid 19 CRISIS

93Flareside

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Dr_Grip

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Was there a published detailed plan that's not media hearsay?
Spahn promised 3.5 million doses in the Hausarztpraxen by End of April. Taking into account that J&J is a complete washout for now, this is not surprising. We will catch up with extra BioNTech doses in May.
 
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narf

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Spahn promised 3.5 million doses in the Hausarztpraxen by End of April. Taking into account that J&J is a complete washout for now, this is not surprising. We will catch up with extra BioNTech doses in May.
...and they're planning to deliver almost 4.5M in April according to that weekly sheet.


PS: Vaccine shooter goes brrrrrrrrr. Almost 6Hz as a 24/7 average over a week :mouse:
 

Dr_Grip

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...and they're planning to deliver almost 4.5M in April according to that weekly sheet.
3.5 Million per week.
 

narf

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3.5 Million per week.
:eek: where?



PS: More data nerdery, at the beginning of this week Germany has administered as many first doses as there are 70+ aged people in Germany. Based on this finer-grained grouping https://www.wiwo.de/politik/deutsch...deutschland-durchgeimpft-werden/26724694.html we'd have covered exactly two thirds of their first three groups, ie aged 70+ and related sicknesses/employments. That grouping is old, so it doesn't cover more recent changes, but should still be a good rough ballpark.
Opening up the next group is imminent :woot:

Oh, and their estimate back then was "Juli to August" for their third group, which we're about to finish in terms of first shots in April or May.

🏎️

Oh, sorry, I meant #Impfdesaster 🤦‍♂️
 
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Dr_Grip

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We will crack the 20% of the general populace vaccinated mark our Public Health Minister set as a full-month target by end of this week, on Monday latest. I think the 25% first shot mark is in sight by end of this month (we will lose some first shot pace in late April as we will have a higher share of second doses before the next step of delivery ramp-up kicks in).
 

Perc

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Around my neck of the woods, they seem to have difficulties getting rid of the Astra Zeneca doses. You need to be 65 years old to qualify for it and apparently people are hesitant right now. Sigh.

60-64 year olds can get Moderna or Pfizer right now and I'm just reading a news story that it won't stay at 60 for very long.
 

Dr_Grip

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As Finland is doing the 12-week interval you are slightly ahead of the rest of Europe. So get ready to be vaccinated soon...
 

gaasc

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No new vaccines since my last update
 

narf

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We will crack the 20% of the general populace vaccinated mark our Public Health Minister set as a full-month target by end of this week, on Monday latest. I think the 25% first shot mark is in sight by end of this month (we will lose some first shot pace in late April as we will have a higher share of second doses before the next step of delivery ramp-up kicks in).
I think April will be better than that for first shots, two reasons:
- no AZ second dose is due before mid-May or so, assuming 12 weeks between them... though some may deviate it won't be huge numbers
- the BnT speedup post-Easter isn't going to affect April either, assuming 6 weeks between the doses

Looking at the data while attempting to remove AZ from the figures - not 100% perfect because the data doesn't split it out in that much detail, so I had to assume all AZs are indeed first shots - it seems mRNA time between doses is more 4-5 weeks in reality:

1618511608504.png

That's doses per day redneck-filtered to mRNA only split into first and second doses. There is some first-dose speedup before Easter, but the significant bit is post-Easter, which should hit second dose peaks in early-to-mid-May... so yeah, May might have fewer first doses than April., depending on ramp-up of deliveries.
 

Dr_Grip

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@narf even better ;-)

So where do your prognosis put our first shot vaccination rare by end of May?
 

narf

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@narf even better ;-)

So where do your prognosis put our first shot vaccination rare by end of May?
I'll do an mRNA prediction, AZ is too weird... and too irrelephant.

As of this morning, we've done 10.6M first and 5.3M second mRNA doses... so in one mRNA-separation-window we'll need to have used another 5.3M for the currently-unfinished people... I'll assume that is end of May, so 21.2M doses used for those 10.6M people. I'm also ignoring the low-six-figure people who we have to expect to die of various causes between their first and second shots throughout the vaccination campaign...
Based on the published delivery schedules we can expect to administer about 40M mRNA doses in total by the end of May, so 18.8M doses left over from the previous line - those can all go to first shots between now and end of May, yielding 29.4M first mRNA doses by end of May.
I believe Germany has about 70M adults, so 42% (obviously) first-mRNA-dose-rate for adults by the end of May, methinks.

AZ is at 4.1M doses as of this morning, I'm assuming they're all first doses. We do need to deduct a few million mRNA doses here to allow for under-60s first-AZ-dose people to get their second mRNA dose, that might be 3M ish. However, we can easily expect the future AZ doses to at least somewhat be used for more 60+ people, so I'm assuming those will cancel each other out. By end of May we could have a total of 10-15M AZ doses in arms, if people take them and there are no more oopsies.

Adding only those 4.1M already-administered first AZ doses and assuming the above does indeed cancel each other out in the coming weeks, we'd be at 33.5M first doses by the end of May, or almost 50% of the adult Germans.
As a rough ballpark, that's about as many adults as we can expect to be in groups 1 through 3, so we should see group 4 first vaccinations starting by the end of May with high (90+) uptake percentages in groups 1 through 3, mid-May with low uptake.




...do remind me to look back at this in 2, 4, 6, 8 weeks 🤓




PS: To illustrate why we can suddenly put more shots in arms, this is deliveries per week as of Sunday:

1618519532360.png

The GPs are helping distribute it, but they're not the root cause. Delivery increases are... the same-size-as-the-last green column for this week is there but not published in the data yet because they moved to once-per-week ex-post for delivery data instead of same-day.
 
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marcos_eirik

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It's going to get slow here, as it's starting to get more and more likely that our government will chicken out on both the AZ and the J&J vaccine over the super rare side effects. :rolleyes: Translation: The summer just got ruined for everyone who hoped it would be better this year... :censored:
 

jack_christie

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CureVac might be able to take up the slack. Looking good on variants.

CureVac reaffirms intention to apply for formal market authorization in Q2 2021
 

Dr_Grip

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It's going to get slow here, as it's starting to get more and more likely that our government will chicken out on both the AZ and the J&J vaccine over the super rare side effects. :rolleyes: Translation: The summer just got ruined for everyone who hoped it would be better this year... :censored:
I just looked at the shipping plans for Norway and they are as skewed towards BioNTech/Moderna as Germany's are. A complete washout of J&J and AstraZeneca would hurt, yes. But not dramatically. Maybe you'll only be done by August, not July as planned right now.
 

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Some vaccine vs. variant research updates from Nature:
  • Real world data from Israel suggests that while the BioNTech vaccine is less efficient against South African super covid than against vanilla and British covid, it's enough to keep the variant from spreading
  • Sputnik V, on the other hand, is almost a complete washout against the variant in lab testing.
  • The "California" variants B.1.427 and B.1.429, according to lab tests, seem to be on eye level with the British variant, so no antibody escape here.
tl;dr: While I see update shots in the future, maybe even in Q4 for those vaccinated late in 2020/early 2021, we are well-equipped to keep any variant at bay.
 

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The 65+ are reluctant to schedule jabs here now because Astra Zeneca.
 

marcos_eirik

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I just looked at the shipping plans for Norway and they are as skewed towards BioNTech/Moderna as Germany's are. A complete washout of J&J and AstraZeneca would hurt, yes. But not dramatically. Maybe you'll only be done by August, not July as planned right now.

Yes, I read that they recently secured more doses of other vaccines, but I still hope that they at very least they give us the option of voluntarily taking either AZ or J&J. I'd happily sign up for that.
 
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