Covid 19 CRISIS

narf

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What I wonder is why both lines tick downwards slightly last week. Combined with anecdotal evidence of several people getting appointments for the next day in my wider social circle, it may or may not be a sign of us running out of vaccinees in Group 2.
Well, finding good reasons for data behaviour is hard, but "running out of vaccinees" likely isn't it because that would cause the stockpile to grow... but, the stockpile isn't growing.
I'd guess in early April we were decimating the stockpile from Easter, and that has run dry by now leading to lower numbers until the May delivery increase. But, that's just a guess.

In real numbers, we've gone down from about 3.6M per 7-day-period to about 3.3M. No big deal.


Unrelated though, group 2 _is_ running out of steam soon, with various places opening up appointments for group 3. The bulk of those will be in the future, not affecting rates of the past week.
 

Dr_Grip

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Unrelated though, group 2 _is_ running out of steam soon, with various places opening up appointments for group 3. The bulk of those will be in the future, not affecting rates of the past week.
A data point I am direly missing is real-world vaccine uptake in the priority groups. So far I saw one very limited blip of data (85% vaccine uptake among healthcare workers in Berlin, and still growing) but for the bigger picture more data would be brilliant.

This has a huge effect on progress predictions as well - most forecasts I've seen assume 70 to 75% vaccine uptake, but if we end up with 80+% (which would be brilliant), obviously the "everyone who wants a shot get one" point moves towards July or even August.
 
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Dr_Grip

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Double-post since edit timeout ran out.

Example for the above: Yesterday, the EU's Ursula van der Leyen said we can have "70% of the EU population vaccinated by end of July". Let's not go into second doses and dosing schedules, but let's assume she's talking first doses. In Germany, 70% of the population is 58.1 Mio people. This equals around 79% of those over 18.

This means that if vaccine uptake is around or below 75%, we will have to start campaigning for more people to get a shot within July, while at 80+% uptake, people will line up for their shots way into August.
 

Momentum57

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4 more days till my second shot. I was over the in-laws last night and regaled of the cousin who isn't getting the vaccine because the illuminati. I don't know how mutations occur but a population remaining unvaccinated just to stick it to invisible boogieman probably would help that happen.

I'm disappointed at the Biden administration for not explaining at this point the stakes. Yes we're getting vaccinated... but much of the world isn't yet, which means it's still out there, and can outlast our vaccine. I think this time next year life will be more back to normal in US enough that the virus will be ripping through the population.
 

93Flareside

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4 more days till my second shot. I was over the in-laws last night and regaled of the cousin who isn't getting the vaccine because the illuminati.

My little brother who's already autistic told me mom won't let him have because she thinks it will make his autism worse. I want a new simulation please.

I have my second scheduled for the 8th, yay. Hopefully my 5G signal will improve. :p
 

calvinhobbes

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I got on my GP’s waitlist (Yay?) and am supposed to receive an official attestation that I do the job I say I do sometime next week… because Germany.
 

Dr_Grip

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I think this time next year life will be more back to normal in US enough that the virus will be ripping through the population.
At this point, please, get some psychological help. Your mindset is not healthy, since you are moving the goalpost from "no vaccines, no hope" to "vaccines, but still everything will be shit."

Vaccine escape through mutations is not an on-off switch and a small part of unvaccinated people will not make it more likely.

Will we need yearly or 24-monthly boosters against mutations? Maybe. Possibly, even. But can immune escape occur suddenly to a degree that "the virus will be ripping through the population"? According to all scientists, no.

A recent outbreak in a care home in Kentucky was caused by an "escape mutation" (E484K). The vaccine held up. And it did so at 85+% efficacy. We see t-cell cross-immunity from some distantly related betacoronaviruses (same link, below). Antibodies from people who have been exposeed to the SA variant are active against a broad variation of different mutations (same link, waaaay below on Mar 30th). Even though the South African variant is on the loose there, cases in Israel are dropping thanks to 60% of the populace vaccinated. And we have B-Cells keeping up with the mutations even without vaccine boosters. Our immune system is more capable than you give it credit for.
 
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Dr_Grip

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D-Fence

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I'm fine with Covid killing off the antivaxxers next year really. If you decide to be a cunt and endanger everyone please talk to Mr. Darwin. Society can only win.
 

RdKetchup

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I'm fine with Covid killing off the antivaxxers next year really. If you decide to be a cunt and endanger everyone please talk to Mr. Darwin. Society can only win.


On a more serious note, the third wave definitely seem to be in control now in my province.

Quebec-Daily-7dra-20210426.png


I missed my chance at getting the AZ shot, hopefully I'll be able to get my first shot of something within a few weeks.
 
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calvinhobbes

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I'm fine with Covid killing off the antivaxxers next year really. If you decide to be a cunt and endanger everyone please talk to Mr. Darwin. Society can only win.
I‘m not. They would clog up our ICUs and we can’t accept that. Leaving them to die is not an option as long as it’s possible to treat them. So the anti-vaccine disinformation needs to be fought… which, admittedly, is tricky when you’re largely reduced to online discussions.
 

Dr_Grip

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Here's international coronavirus authority Christian Drosten weighing in on mutations and booster shots:
Drosten said:
"We don't have to use boosters because some kind of mutations crop up, but first and foremost because immunity against mucosal viruses is not lifelong. We are not talking about a measels vaccination here." Especially countries like Germany with it's high share of older people should play it safe and "administer boosters to more than only very narrow high-risk groups" before winter.

The good news, according to Drosten, is: The more often you get infected with a corona virus (and only perceive the infection as a cold at most), the longer the full-fledged mucosal protection lasts - not only for months, but for several years at a time. "Doomsday scenarios in which the Covid pandemic never ends are nonsense" said the virologist.
 

Labcoatguy

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I'm 11 hours after my own 2nd Pfizer, and pretty much the same; relaxing with an ice-cold Vesper and some ad-hoc sushi. Still want to wear my Jaguar mask around though, as if I'm some sort of Aztec warrior cosplayer.
 

Momentum57

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I'm 11 hours after my own 2nd Pfizer, and pretty much the same; relaxing with an ice-cold Vesper and some ad-hoc sushi. Still want to wear my Jaguar mask around though, as if I'm some sort of Aztec warrior cosplayer.
Same boat second dose Pfizer tomorrow, Dr. Frank Konstantin Riesling, shrimp pesto. Also watch that Mortal Kombat movie mask are lit.
 

Dr_Grip

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My bet is on all of us needing boosters
It's a policy question. If the endgame is to treat covid as a seasonal nuisance like the flu (a mixture of freshly vaxxed people and partial immunity from earlier vaccination or infection keeps case numbers down, and vaccination for the elderly keeps the ICUs empty), we can probably rely on natural immunity after first shots for people outside risk groups. But if the endgame is (close to) eradication, then boosters will most likely be needed.
 

Dr_Grip

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I will be interested to know the results of this test.

Getting back to that - Zero infections linked to the first trial concert, with two being under investigation (there were twenty-something infections among those visiting, with all but two clearly linked to other infection chains).
The Dutch now want to allow a small audience for Eurovision finals.
 

narf

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A data point I am direly missing is real-world vaccine uptake in the priority groups. So far I saw one very limited blip of data (85% vaccine uptake among healthcare workers in Berlin, and still growing) but for the bigger picture more data would be brilliant.

This has a huge effect on progress predictions as well - most forecasts I've seen assume 70 to 75% vaccine uptake, but if we end up with 80+% (which would be brilliant), obviously the "everyone who wants a shot get one" point moves towards July or even August.
Well, I can only get you a reasonably close data point: Impfquoten for 60+ people is a thing two thirds of the Länder are reporting (Berlin isn't one of them :sad:), and those are between 48% and 68% first-shot-fraction as of Friday morning. Considering that many 60-to-69-year-olds aren't eligible yet / just gotten eligible *and* that that's a good chunk of the 60+ population, I'd say that's a good rate.

Monitor its progress here: https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Daten/Impfquoten-Tab.html (MS spreadsheet at the bottom, because why provide a website or an open format... :shakefist:)
 
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