Covid 19 CRISIS

narf

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Mkay, I've now looked at the data properly, and can conclude a few things:


Allowing the German group 4 from tomorrow is perfect timing, this weekend we'll have crossed over the 80% threshold for first shots of the 60+ year old people(*). That doesn't necessarily mean that group 3 is at 80%, I'm expecting a declining percentage from 1 through 3 - but it means a really really big chunk of the willing people in those three groups have had their shot already, or have at least an appointment.


Getting a good handle on deliveries is getting harder... for example, https://www.bundesgesundheitsminist...eferprognosen_aller_Hersteller_2._Quartal.pdf claims 10M JJ and 12.4M+ AZ in Q2... but the individual weeks left unfilled would need *massive* delivery increases to meet those Q2 numbers. AZ is plausible but uncertain, JJ is ridiculous... they would need to deliver the entirety of the JJ shipments so far every single week to meet the Q2 goal.


As a result of ☝️ the following will be less precise for those two, and also less precise if mix-and-match vaccinations between AZ and mRNA happen a lot. I'd love to know how those get reported in the data... will we eventually end up with more 2nd shots of Biontech than 1st shots? Also while we're here, how do recovered covid patients appear, without a need for a second shot? :dunno:
Let's go manufacturer by manufacturer to guesstimate end-of-June shot counts:
Biontech: Currently 25.3M / 14.3M first / second shots. Based on deliveries we can expect around 18M more shots, and we need about 9M of those for 2nd shots due by the end of the month... so, around 34.3M first and 23.3M second shots from the Goldgrube.
Moderna: 3.0M / 1.3M, about 2M more shots delivered, 1.5M needed for 2nd shots... so, 3.5M/2.8M.
AZ: 8.7M/0.8M, allegedly somewhere in the region of 6-7M maybe ready by the end of June :dunno:, around 2.2M 2nd shots needed, maybe, see above :dunno:... so, 12.7M/3M.
JJ: 0.8M so far, no 2nd shots necessary, but huge uncertainty in June deliveries, so I'll just 🎲 and say 3M more shots by end of June... so, 3.8M.
Summed up, that's 54.3M first shots and 32.9M fully vax'd people, 65.4% / 39.6% of the population... 83.4M shots, pretty much on point one shot per person 🥳


Fun Fact: AZ was approved January 29th... however, the data suggests there were around 60 AZ vaccinations before that date :lmao::coplight:


(*) based on all Länder with detailed DIM reporting, ie without the Axis of Hinterwäldler (Bayern, Berlin, Sachsen, Sachsen-Anhalt)
 

Punisher Bass

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Well... I found out on Saturday that my barber is maybe an antivaxxer (his wife is also my insurance agent) but is definitely a covid denier. A little over a year ago I hadn't had a haircut in over 6 months but all barbershops were supposed to be closed by our Governor's order. I stopped by because I was desperate enough that I was considering trying to track down a fucking Flowbie. He was open but not officially open, it was wink wink nudge nudge, and he didn't have a mask on. I hoped that it was because his regulars needed their hair cut and not simply in defiance of being told what to do.

Anyway, I only get a cut once every 3-4 months so I'm only in there a couple times per year and I've never seen him wear a mask. I asked him if he'd been vaccinated and he said "Yeah, I went to China to get mine"...

"Oh dear..." I thought to myself.

I quickly changed the subject but damn, I've been going to him for 20 years and I really don't want to have to find a new place. I know this is very First World Problems but he's the first person I actually know who's like this.
 

NecroJoe

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Just yesterday I realized I haven't had a haircut since October, 2019.

Oh, the joys of the simple "pull it back, ponytail" hairstyle...no matter the length, it looks identical from the front. ;)
 

gaasc

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Well... I found out on Saturday that my barber is maybe an antivaxxer (his wife is also my insurance agent) but is definitely a covid denier. A little over a year ago I hadn't had a haircut in over 6 months but all barbershops were supposed to be closed by our Governor's order. I stopped by because I was desperate enough that I was considering trying to track down a fucking Flowbie. He was open but not officially open, it was wink wink nudge nudge, and he didn't have a mask on. I hoped that it was because his regulars needed their hair cut and not simply in defiance of being told what to do.

Anyway, I only get a cut once every 3-4 months so I'm only in there a couple times per year and I've never seen him wear a mask. I asked him if he'd been vaccinated and he said "Yeah, I went to China to get mine"...

"Oh dear..." I thought to myself.

I quickly changed the subject but damn, I've been going to him for 20 years and I really don't want to have to find a new place. I know this is very First World Problems but he's the first person I actually know who's like this.
I see no reason to change barber so long as he keeps cutting your hair the way you like it and you're vaccinated.
 

SirEdward

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I've been self-cutting my hair since the start of the pandemic. Not glamorous at all, but effective. Last time I checked (so more than a year ago), my barber was a Covid-negationist too.
 

eizbaer

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I know this is very First World Problems but he's the first person I actually know who's like this.
I see no reason to change barber so long as he keeps cutting your hair the way you like it and you're vaccinated.
Honestly for me it'd also be a reason to change... sure, the guy "only cuts your hair", but this sort of bullshit is simply unacceptable (to me at least). This also means I don't want to support people like that, who will possibly believe and support other toxic bullshit as well... luckily I'm not in that position.

I haven't encountered real covid deniers or antivaxxers myself, yet - in part because I feel communicating this too openly here does actually result in considerable backlash. However, I've encountered a lot of people heavily influenced by fearmongering-media consumption, who seem not to ask questions enough, or are simply not willing to do their own proper research. Example: quite a few colleagues talking about vaccinations and such are very happy about the fact that they're vaccinated... but are also screaming bloody mayhem about what they would've done had their GP offered them astra, which (according to them) is a freaking danger and totally unacceptable and an outrage that this stuff is even allowed blablablabla. wtf honestly...
 

calvinhobbes

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Speaking of haircuts and the ‘rona:

Apparently, my parents-in-law both got an appointment for a first jab a little while ago. Father IL went, got vaccinated, all is well. Mother IL had made an appointment for a haircut that collided with the vaccination time slot.

Guess where she went… :wall: Oh, and she works at a supermarket checkout. No reason at all, then, to jump at the first chance to get a jab.
 

Perc

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Mother IL had made an appointment for a haircut that collided with the vaccination time slot.

Guess where she went… :wall:

There needs to be an emoji stronger than :wall: ...
 

93Flareside

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Just yesterday I realized I haven't had a haircut since October, 2019.

Oh, the joys of the simple "pull it back, ponytail" hairstyle...no matter the length, it looks identical from the front. ;)
Now I need to see this
 

ninjacoco

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Ugh, I don't envy PB's barber situation, but I also know that avoiding 'rona deniers/antivaxers, say, where my mom lives would be a damn minefield. Apparently a few relatives on her side of the family were like, "I have an immune system." Well, yes, and so did [insert large figures for the U.S. here]. It'd be enough to make me look elsewhere for a hair person, though. I just don't have any patience for it anymore. Kinda glad I live in a larger city where this isn't as much of an issue, but damn.

I'm super tired of my rat's nest on my head, but my hair is bad regardless of whether I have a haircut or not, so I've put that off for a while. I know I have all the shots and whatnot, and that hairpeople are pretty responsible, but it still feels very weird to have folks super-close to me.
 

D-Fence

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BMW started vaccinations now too.......press photo is great though (security for politician, primeminister of bavaria, ceo of bmw)

1623075899531.png
 

ninjacoco

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it's almost like that dark blue suit/white shirt combo is a uniform lol
 

Matt2000

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I bet that guy has never felt so much pressure in his entire career. If you flinch or scream you're fired. Also those safety shoes make it look like his feet are encased in cake icing compared to the other dudes in slim shoes.

No 5G for me yet, they're doing well around here and I could travel a fairly long distance to get mine but I'd rather wait and get both here. If both are required for travel to Ringmeet I'm unlikely to have them no matter what I do and I don't plan on leaving the country for any other reason. Also I cut my own hair but would definitely be looking for a new place if I found out they were antivaxx or a denier.
 

narf

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I bet that guy has never felt so much pressure in his entire career. If you flinch or scream you're fired. Also those safety shoes make it look like his feet are encased in cake icing compared to the other dudes in slim shoes.
You can tell by his and the doctor's shoes who in the room is doing actual work, and who is just participating in a photo op :roll:
 

gaasc

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A Honduran update, to distract from the conversation of whether everyone we work with should align with us on key issues or opportunistic photo ops.

Remember a couple of months ago when private enterprise was trying to secure J&J vaccinations for their employees? Well, I've heard no updates from that...until now. As it turns out, if the versions from the state are to be believed, J&J does not want to initiate direct sales with any country which is part of COVAX. 202 people were vaccinated with it here, but all of them were members of the Soto Cano air base. It is reasonable to assume, therefore, that the whole plan has been scrapped. I will keep a line out to see if they do anything, but it seems they have just regressed to just saying that we should lift restrictions on how many people are allowed in a store and other such measures.

Apparently they will happily supply vaccines to Honduras...so long as it is through COVAX or someone else donates them to us. Also, it implies that now me and mine are really at the mercy of whichever vaccine they have for us when they arrive to mass vaccination (special interest groups are still infighting to jump the queue).
 

NecroJoe

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Now I need to see this
Eh, once it gets to a certain length, it's more likely to break, so there's sort of a "terminal length" for my hair, and my haircare regiment, since I do nothing but wash and condition with supermarket products, 3-5 times a week.

i've also not shaved/trimmed my beard for...maybe the longest time ever. ;)

1623095424183.png
 

Dr_Grip

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The whole purpose of COVAX is to provide vaccine below markt price, so it makes sense to say that a country can either buy for full market price or from COVAX, but not both at the same time.

This does not mean the situation sucks less @gaasc
 

Dr_Grip

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Today we celebrate the six month jubilee of the first covid shot being given to a regular person outside clinical trials.
I'd like to point out that yesterday also marked the passing of 17 months since the covid genome was decoded and published by Chinese scientists (Jan 7th, 2020).

This means a month from now the very unlikely, almost impossible, some people said absolutely undoable best case 12 to 18 months timeframe for developing a covid vaccine ends. Remember, not even a year ago expert pundits on TV (most of which still get invited to talk shows) told us that it categorically is impossible to vaccinate against coronaviruses.

But humankind rose to the occasion and not only successfully developed a vaccine: We did so in 11 months. And then we went on to develop and successfully test around a dozen vaccines (I have lost track of Indian, Cuban, Chinese, Finnish and other vaccines that are in late-stage testing or even fully developed), with several of them now being rolled out after approval by different regulatory bodies. But not only this, we managed to get over two billion shots into arms, with over 1.5 billion people having received at least one shot. And even for worrying virus mutations, vaccine updates have already been tested and work splendidly.

This is an amazing feat.

Yes, there is a lot of inequality in vaccine distribution, as @gaasc sadly can attest. And yes, the variants are worrying and making matters worse.

Never the less, given the potential outcomes of both the pandemic itself and the vaccine development process, we are living in what can be called one of the best-case scenarios.

Here's a good round-up in Nature on six months of covid vaccinations.

EDIT: Fitting the jubilee, Israel reported zero covid cases yesterday for the first time since the beginning of the pandemic.
 
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Matt2000

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It really is incredible what we can achieve when we work towards a single goal, I can't imagine seeing the world working 'together' like this again in my lifetime. I write 'together' as I'm not convinced that every country collaborated in the best possible way overall but, hey, we got here in the end.

My GP apparently didn't have my number to use the text service so didn't bother to try and contact me, odd as I've had that number since forever (might be the only number I've ever had) and have definitely visited in that time. Should receive an invite to book at their surgery soon. That place is so 1980s it hurts but it's local.

Someone at work is complaining about suddenly having poor WiFi signal on their laptop, naturally the first question was if they had received their 2.4GHz 5G jabs. :LOL:
 
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Dr_Grip

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