Covid 19 CRISIS

Dr_Grip

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Let's hope you can pull them forward a bit.
 

Misrabelle

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Every time I've checked, I've been able to reserve a first appointment, but you can't book one at a time, and only within the 3-6 week window. Apparently the single slots were people cancelling a second shot due to either lockdown, or infection. Apparently by October we get a bigger shipment of Pfizer as well, so there will be more availability. Maybe I can shuffle dates around a little, but it's the second booking that is the difficult one.
NSW is already diverting doses from regional areas to Sydney - as one region pointed out, the biggest risk to them is workers moving about into their area, and bringing it from Sydney. Other states told our Premier to piss off when she asked to share theirs.

I think mother got her second one today, or maybe next Thursday. Mine is scheduled for Sunday, I just completed my consent form today. Then by the next video meet, I'll be fully 5G enabled!
 

Dr_Grip

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Little to report on the research front. It is obvious that from a science point of view, it's "problem solved" mostly. Coronavirus experts like Drosten will continue to work on the topic, and of course there's a bunch of money to be made from developing a "covid pill" and second generation vaccines, but the opportunistic storm on the topic by each and every researcher trying to get a paper published seems to be over.

We got some minor news on vaccination, though. Most of them pretty good.

Let's keep in mind there's two kinds of immunity we look at here: Firstly, functional immunity, meaning if you get in contact with the virus, your immune system kicks it ass and you don't suffer any or only minor symptoms. Second, sterilizing immunity, meaning if you get in contact with the virus, your immune system blocks it off entirely, and you never even get infected.

First piece of news: Following up on the initial trial of the two mRNA vaccines, we see a small drop in protection against mild disease ("any symptoms") after six months: While the initial trial read out at 95-ish percent for both BioNTech/Pfizer and Moderna, we now stand at 84% and 90%, respectively. It is currently unclear whether this drop is actually driven by a loss of vaccine efficacy, or rather by the occurance of mutations (the trial was run in the US, where several partial immune escape E484K mutations were circulating before being wiped out by Delta).
Efficacy against severe disease does not seem to be impacted, with the current 97% figure being within the confidence interval of the original 99% readout.

Second: Even those unlucky enough to catch covid while being vaccinated are 78% less likely to spread the virus than an unvaccinated person. This data comes with the caveat of being pre-Delta, though. With Delta being 40% more infectious than Alpha, maybe this number will drop to 70%. Or maybe not.

Third: Scientists are zeroing in on the "correlate of protection", the amount of antibodies needed to provide sterilizing immunity. This is important work since once we not only know that there is a direct relation between antibody levels and sterilizing immunity, but can put a number behind it, you can tell if a vaccine (a new one or an variant update) works by lab tests, without the need to run a phase 3 trial.

Fourth: The fact that T-Cell production begins almost immediately after vaccination might explain why functional immunity sets in even with near-zero antibody level. Understanding functional immunity better helps us with deciding whether everyone needs booster shots, or whether only those super vulnerable (or working with them) should get them.

All in all, covid, as Cambridge's Ravi Gupta (a harsh critic of the Johnson administration, so don't put him off for political reasons) put it, is turning from a medical and research challenge into a political problem: With no vaccine for small kids (yet) and significant groups of vaccine refusers, how do we deal with rising infection numbers, as the vast majority of people will be well-protected by vaccination?
 
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Blind_Io

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93Flareside

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Got both shots, this mean I'm now immortal?
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Dr_Grip

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This flies in the face of all data we from Britain, 12-ish percent for Delta vs. 90%+ for chickenpox.
If it would be true, though, the case for mandatory vaccination becomes stronger to the point of being inevitable.
 

Misrabelle

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Yesterday’s infection total in Sydney was 170, today we’re back at 210.
For fucks sake.

Sydney: Stay the fuck at home!
 

jack_christie

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Dr_Grip

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Good overview on Stat what Delta changes and what it does not.

Some key takaways:
  • Less than 10% of cases in US among vaccinated (35K per week at more than 400K weekly cases)
  • While CDC mask mandate makes sense from a public health point of view, vaccinated people " are fueling just a fraction of overall Covid-19 transmission"
  • Lots of info on how the immune system and the vaccine interact, tl;dr: While you are more likely to get a cold that knocks you out for a few days from Delta, it prevents the virus entering the lungs
  • In the long tun, covid will be just another seasonal nuisance, but until then we need to vaccionate as quick as we can.
And some end-of-the-month vaccination bookkeeping.
  • Germany has fallen behind cliché vaccine refuser countries France and Italy when it comes to percentage of over-18s vaccinated at least once
  • Iceland, Ireland, Spain, Portugal, the Netherlands, Denmark and Finland crossed 80% of adults, with the rest of the Nordics hot on their tail
  • Situation in former Warsaw Pact states and the Balkans is shit, with vaccine uptake among adults rarely crossing 50%
  • You can see the effect of vaccination everywhere in Europe, even with case numbers ticking up: ICUs and hospitals stay mostly empty.
 
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jack_christie

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With about 50% of Florida vaccinated:

Florida sets a record with 21,683 new COVID-19 cases reported Saturday​

 
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Punisher Bass

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How could this happen? There's just no way anyone could have seen something like this coming. Impossible to predict.


Considering most of there people were there to protest the mask mandate, odds are most of them were also unvaccinated, and to them this will somehow prove their point that this is still a haox, masks don't work, and the vaccine is just a Soros mind control chip. If this shit keeps up these dumb mother fuckers won't even be allowed into the hospital because all the beds will already be taken up.
 

Misrabelle

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207 new cases in Sydney to last night.

89 cases were in isolation throughout their infectious period and 21 cases were in isolation for part of their infectious period.
51 cases were infectious in the community, and the isolation status of 46 cases remains under investigation.
A 90 year old man died in hospital - he had only received 1 dose of AZ.
54 cases in ICU.
 
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