Covid 19 CRISIS

I don't believe any data coming out of China and Italy has less than a fifth of our population.

You are actually right on both points. China is not exactly reliable and the US would need 400.000 cases in order to be on par with Italy on the density of the cases.

But you've only just started counting, and still not in lockdown. If the italian curve is going where it seems (peaking) and the US' will not change trajectory, you will be in a worse situation than Italy in 7-10 days.
 
Yes, that's possible unfortunately. That said our hospitals have not hit capacity yet and the private market has been feverishly working on making ventilators and masks, for example. I think that as long as our hospitals are able to manage the influx of patients, we'll be more or less okay on the health front; I'm still quite concerned about the economy though.

Part of me wonders if we're about to default on all debt to China as a way to (somewhat) save our economy, get out of debt, and also make China pay for this pandemic. This might start WWIII though but I bet this scenario has been considered at some point this month.
 
Whatever the numbers, China is going to begin to reopen Wuhan in the next week or two.

Unless the US does country wide lock down, physical distancing, testing and contact tracing, really hard to see the curve flattening....

Gtech also made simple open source ventilator

The ventilator is driven and controlled entirely from the hospital oxygen supply without the need for electricity.
www.gtech.co.uk/ventilators



 
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Bet he doesn't have any problems getting a ventilator. One can but hope.
 
Gov. Baker frustrated with lack of personal protection equipment in Massachusetts


Mar 19th
 
Yes, that's possible unfortunately. That said our hospitals have not hit capacity yet and the private market has been feverishly working on making ventilators and masks, for example.

Not just possible, likely. The effect of the italian shutdown are materialising now, two weeks later, as did the effects of the Wuhan lockdown in China.

The US will get now what was done to flatten the curve two weeks ago. Which was mostly nothing. For the next week (probably two weeks), it is unlikely that the US curve will show much different than a doubling of the cases every three days.

The hospitals are still within capacity now; will they be if the cases double every three days for the next 10 days (which is likely)?

I really hope the effort to ramp up the equipment and places and support will be enough.

I think that as long as our hospitals are able to manage the influx of patients, we'll be more or less okay on the health front;

This is right, but it is a big question mark. Actually, given today's data, it is not a question mark, it is a nightmare, but I don't know the extent of the effort to get everything in line (at this point, no effort can realistically be too much effort), and I know the US are capable of incredible things. It is important to act now and act correctly.

And it would be important to help the system by starting strong social distancing, hand washing, staying at home and all the other measures required to stop the spreading.

I'm still quite concerned about the economy though.

The economy is a sunk cost. What must be done is to stop the virus as fast as possible to reduce the duration of the emergency and be able to get back to production as soon as possible without getting another emergency for having reoponed too early.

Part of me wonders if we're about to default on all debt to China as a way to (somewhat) save our economy, get out of debt, and also make China pay for this pandemic. This might start WWIII though but I bet this scenario has been considered at some point this month.

Pestilence is here. Famine will materialize if the economy is hit too hard. Let's hope nobody wants War, oherwise the thing will start to resemble Apocalypse too much.
 
Yes, that's possible unfortunately. That said our hospitals have not hit capacity yet
NY (specifically NYC) is pretty close to it actually and IIRC we actually have a pretty high bed per capita coverage comparatively speaking. We are also pretty close to the peak, if other states don’t lock down soon they might end up in a much worse situation.
Part of me wonders if we're about to default on all debt to China as a way to (somewhat) save our economy, get out of debt, and also make China pay for this pandemic. This might start WWIII
Defaulting on debt to China wouldn’t cause ww3, too many nukes everywhere. But it might cause China to shut its market to US companies and that would hit us pretty hard. They are a huge ass market, they are #1 for cars and are big fans of American ones at that.
 
‘I’m shaking hands continuously. I was at a hospital the other night where there were actually some Coronavirus patients & I shook hands with everybody. People can make up their own mind but I think it’s very important to keep shaking hands.’
 
Lt. Gen. Todd Semonite, Chief of Engineers and commanding general of the Army Corps of Engineers
 
UK Health minister positive
 
Lt. Gen. Todd Semonite, Chief of Engineers and commanding general of the Army Corps of Engineers
Umm that's literally the opposite of what you would do to make a negative pressure room, it would suck the air out of the room and dump it out via a filter... Not suck it in via a bathroom vent.
 
NY (specifically NYC) is pretty close to it actually and IIRC we actually have a pretty high bed per capita coverage comparatively speaking. We are also pretty close to the peak, if other states don’t lock down soon they might end up in a much worse situation.
Defaulting on debt to China wouldn’t cause ww3, too many nukes everywhere. But it might cause China to shut its market to US companies and that would hit us pretty hard. They are a huge ass market, they are #1 for cars and are big fans of American ones at that.
Not to mention tanking the value of the dollar and the bond markets. The dollar and US Treasury Bonds are stable because we don't default.
 
I suspect that this thing will get so big that the only option is a total reset of the world economy.

I don't know precisely who owes how much and to whom but I imagine billions will have to be written off.
 
I suspect that this thing will get so big that the only option is a total reset of the world economy.

I don't know precisely who owes how much and to whom but I imagine billions will have to be written off.
Unless you don't act fast, its a couple of %GDP
 
I suspect that this thing will get so big that the only option is a total reset of the world economy.

I don't know precisely who owes how much and to whom but I imagine billions will have to be written off.
Of course that will all be big corporate money, none of us individuals will get help on our debts - at least not in the US. This is already turning into another corporate handout.
 
I actually had whole nations in mind.
 
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