Covid 19 CRISIS

Punisher Bass

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covid 12.png
 

Momentum57

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^ hey so good news

OPEN UP THE SCHOOLS!
 
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Dr_Grip

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And here I sit, worrying as all of Germany (85 Mio) reports as many cases as St. Louis region (3 Mio)...
 

Momentum57

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And here I sit, worrying as all of Germany (85 Mio) reports as many cases as St. Louis region (3 Mio)...

Hey just because you have facts doesn't mean... I don't know what they would say... even satire is difficult at this point... Know some of us are going to need your help... Please help us when the time comes.
 

GRtak

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GRtak

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Dr_Grip

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I don't want to make this to a politics thread but maybe instead of worrying about what the US situation does mean for our exports, the EU (or select countries like France, the UK and Germany) should finally accept that the American century is coming to an end and the political and ideological leadership of the so-called "first world" is being returned to Europe. We should embrace this opportunity, not fear it.
 

gaasc

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I don't want to make this to a politics thread but maybe instead of worrying about what the US situation does mean for our exports, the EU (or select countries like France, the UK and Germany) should finally accept that the American century is coming to an end and the political and ideological leadership of the so-called "first world" is being returned to Europe. We should embrace this opportunity, not fear it.

This is terrifying to me, but you're probably right. I just hope that it's the more stable, reasoned members of the EU will manage the new hegemony.
 

Blind_Io

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I don't want to make this to a politics thread but maybe instead of worrying about what the US situation does mean for our exports, the EU (or select countries like France, the UK and Germany) should finally accept that the American century is coming to an end and the political and ideological leadership of the so-called "first world" is being returned to Europe. We should embrace this opportunity, not fear it.

The power on the other side of the US is rapidly shifting to China, we are losing influence in the Asia-Pacific region as well as Europe. One thing the US never learned is humility, and we are about to get an ongoing and painful lesson in it.
 

Punisher Bass

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SEE! STL is turning things around as if by magic! It's getting better and there's no reason to issue another lockdown order, and no way in hell is this from them simply cooking the books to make it look better. Ain't no way ain't no how.

covid 13.png
 

gaasc

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If this does become a thing, can the people trying to establish it please not be us again?

*looks at the list of countries*

I've got bad news for you... :p
 

Dr_Grip

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Just thinking about why the WHO is so skeptical about the prospect of a vaccine, calling it "no silver bullet", when most respectable scientists agree that the development of an effective vaccine by now is "only" a matter of time (will it be available in October 2020? In January 21? Or in the second half of 2021?).

For me, living in a first world state with a working healthcare system, it is beyond belief how a working vaccine can not be the silver bullet, and I was about to lambast the WHO for scaremongering to prove their continued need to exist.

But then, I thought about the caveats with most or all vaccine front-runners, based on what we learned from monkey challenge trials and phase I/II human trials:
  • Needs a booster shot a month in (all except for maybe J&J)
  • Needs to be stored frozen, not "only" refrigerated (all except for Oxford and J&J)
  • May or may not need a yearly booster, either due to fading immunity and/or covid mutations (likelyhood confirmed for Pfizer and Oxford)
  • May only protect younger people, say, under 60 or so
  • May only protect a certain percentage of people inoculated, if animal models are anything to go by we are looking at 80-ish percent efficiency (perfectly normal for almost all vaccines on the market)
  • May only protect from getting sick, but still leaves a small window of virus distribution (possible for Oxford)
None of these are real problems in a country with a working medical infrastructure and healthcare system*. Probably/hopefully, low levels of transmission will be able to even out anti-vaxxers refusing to get vaccinated, getting us to a point where covid is eradicated except for the occasional outbreak in communities with super low protection rates (like measels outbreaks in anti-vaxxer dominated childcare centers).

Sadly, not even half of the world's population lives in countries like this. Over a third of the world's population lives in Africa and India combined, with South America and the poorer parts of Asia to be kept in mind, as well. None of these places will be able to administer vaccines that need to be stored frozen, or chase people down for follow-up appointments to get a booster. How the US healthcare system will cope with a vaccination campaign of this size has to be seen, as well. So, for all these places outside the warmth of more or less universal healthcare, there's a struggle ahead. We will see whether Bill Gates' optimism of the world being out of the pandemic by the end of 2021 will be warranted or not. I am optimistic us Europeans will be, but we are not the world.

*I see production of enough vaccine as a temporary problem. Especially if yearly boosters are needed, providing a billion shots to the EU and US combined at $20 a pop each year is a surefire business model for any company, while at the same time being little enough money not to bring down the healthcare systems providing the shots. $20 is the number Pfizer has given as a possible per-dose for-profit price point.
 
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jack_christie

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Can't remember who said it, but I think it was Fauci, that 90% of what is looking promising is in drugs and therapies.

Some estimates are that a vaccine rollout could take four or more years.

Need to keep price down -
In August 2019, MSF asked GAVI to stop giving Advance Market Commitment subsidies to GSK and Pfizer, whom they called a duopoly, and instead buy vaccine from a new third manufacturer, the Serum Institute of India, which offered the vaccine at 2/3 of the price then offered by the two.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GAVI#Vaccine_pricing_and_market_shaping
 

GRtak

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Dr_Grip

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Some estimates are that a vaccine rollout could take four or more years.
As outlined above, I can believe this figure. While countries like China have shown that they can roll out a vaccine quickly (they did test 11 mio people in Wuhan for covid within a week, so they will be able to vaccinate at a similar speed) and I have a lot of trust in most European healthcare systems, places like India or even the US might struggle. We'll also have to see how mid-tier countries like Russia cope...

And then there's manufacture and logistics... Science Mag's Derek Lowe said that if a vaccine will be ready within the first half of 2021, and it will need a booster, glass vial production will not be able to keep up with vaccine production or demand...
 

Punisher Bass

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Dr_Grip

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I think I will at some point become part of the violent backlash and start beating people up for not wearing a mask.
 
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