Covid 19 CRISIS

calvinhobbes said:
I sort of want it to be positive. That would mean my quarantine isn’t for nothing and perhaps I’ll even have become immune to reinfection.
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It's only been a week and I'm beginning to feel the same. The fact that I'm just a bit sick, with symptoms pointing to a cold and/or slight tonsilitis which is kind of routine for me in the first quarter of the year, doesn't help.

Honestly, on Friday I had to both use public transport and get groceries. Especially the latter was probably the most anxiety-inducing experience I've ever had. I don't know how to deal with this, plus the inability to actualy meet friends, for months. I gather I'll catch COVID-19 sooner or later anyway. My immune system is weakened, so I'm really not looking forward to it - but I'd rather have it sooner than later. :(
 
Everything seems to be fairly normal in the Atlanta area besides people working from home (i.e. less traffic), schools closed, and people hoarding toilet paper.

I'm not too concerned for myself because I have a hardcore immune system. I get sick maybe once every 2-3 years and that doesn't lasts long. I haven't had any form medications, not even aspirin, in the last 25 years. However, I'm still social distancing.

I'll be planting my Summer garden today. And don't need toilet paper because, as I mentioned in the Random thread, I wash instead of using toilet paper. Life goes on.
 
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Blind_Io said:
Confirmed infections, US and Italy compared to date. That curve isn't looking so good; maybe it's the increase in testing that's giving us more positives?
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There is also a difference in population size to consider
 
prizrak said:
There is also a difference in population size to consider
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It should not interfere with the steepness of the curve. If you start with the same number and do the same things, the same steepness should be observed, regardless of the entire population. this is because what matters to the steepness is how many new people an infected case infects in a day, and how many infected people are present.

If the steepness is different on cumulative cases, it's because some conditions are different, so the infection spreads faster/slower, or the number of cases in the steeper area are underestimated. Or both.
 
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avanti said:
on the topic of China, do people actually believe that the numbers reported from China are true? I hope so, but I doubt it.
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Nope, they've been lying about everything so far. They tried to cover up the virus, they tried to blame the US for spreading it, etc. The communist Chinese govt are all scumbags and now we have no TP for our bungholes because of this Chinese virus.
 
The probability that China's "0 infections" is real is almost negligible. Just like the <200 russian ones.
The probability that the situation is out of control is also low, as news will come out somehow.

The maximum probability is that some cases still exist or come out at times, but they are going hard at fighting each one like South Korea did, to avoid another Wuhan, and then they boost their image by propaganding the "0 infections" slogan, maybe by attributing the existing ones to people coming back from abroad.
 
^Up to a point.

China has a much younger population than Italy, so a lower percentage of deaths from Covid-19 is to be expected. It is also probable that China used a different methodology towards counting the infected.

Italy now only counts people getting through the healthcare system, and those who show symptoms. This means most asymptomatic cases will go unreported. This will make the percentages worse than counting all infected.

Italy counts as deaths from Coronavirus all people who died while showing the symptoms. Other countries (UK, Germany...) do not. This will change their data (and not show a real picture of the situation). We do't know exactly how China counted the deaths related to Covid-19.

If we take the 2-5% death-rate observed on average around the world, we can reasonably say that Italy has not just roughly 50.000 cases, today, but it has somewhere between 80.000 and 120.000, more than 50% of them asymptomatic or mild cases.
 
SirEdward said:
Just like the <200 russian ones.
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I am more inclined to believe Russia and I'll explain why. For one Russia has a concept of a district physician, meaning when you are sick a doctor will make a house visit rather than you having to go somewhere and infecting everyone while you are travelling.
For two they have specialized ID hospitals so anyone who is identified as having some ID goes to a special isolator room in a special hospital that does nothing BUT ID, that cuts down on exposure as well.
And finally Russia is rather sparsely populated, it has slightly less than half population of the US on a way bigger landmass. Aside from couple of big cities it's mostly empty space.

There is also general lack of travel between China/Russia, so it's very possible that they have a very low rate of infection.
 
I have to give credit to Russia, because I don't think they are out of control as the Western Countries are.

Yet I believe it's more the case of Putin (well, the Russian Governement) taking the threat seriously and acting correctly (and probably too harshly for our standards) from the get go rather than playing it down stupidly.

Still, I cannot believe they are THAT low.
 
Well keep in mind numbers depend on testing, so if they aren't doing the testing they won't see the numbers.
 
prizrak said:
Well keep in mind numbers depend on testing, so if they aren't doing the testing they won't see the numbers.
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This is as dumb a strategy as that from the Western Countries up to a couple of days ago...
 
 
SirEdward said:
This is as dumb a strategy as that from the Western Countries up to a couple of days ago...
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Well... you aren't going to test every person that makes no sense, you'd only test those who exhibit the symptoms so if for some reason (vodka probably) Russians tend to be asymptomatic they won't be tested
 
I've been tracking the stats the last few days with https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

It was at 11,888 when I went out to start tidying and reorganising my shed/workshop about 3pm. Came in about 7.30 to clean up and crack a beer and it's now at 12,963. That's 975 more casualties logged in 4.5 hours.

And its barely yet hit Africa, India and some of the other poorer and less developed nations in the world.

The Spanish Flu of 1918 killed over 50 million of a then world population of approx 1.5 billion with a third of the population estimated to have caught the virus. It therefore killed approx 1/30th of the population.

There are now approx 7.8 billion people in the world and in many areas living in much closer proximity.

Run those numbers in parallel and we could be looking at over a quarter of a billion deaths if not more.
 
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