Covid 19 CRISIS

LeVeL said:
I have exactly zero faith in any estimates at this point because no one really knows where this is going to go.
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They are mostly going by data we have from China and Italy but everyone counts deaths and infections in their own way. China is probably straight up bullshit, while Italy doesn't count people who died at home. Then there is the fact that no one is really doing autopsies in the first place, which makes sense given the scale of the thing.

Then you have to get into the fact that unless you test every single person in the world you can't realistically know what the true death rate is. There are also a lot of assumptions being made in terms of what percentage of the population gets infected, how quickly the hospitals will get overrun, etc...

Momentum57 said:
My guess is they will give one big estimate to then say hey we did keep it below the estimate so we did a great job.
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I think it's more to make people listen, you tell someone 100k will die they might not take it too seriously you say 2/3x that they might start.
 
Actually there is an abundance of data, particularly from Italy and Spain, coupled with the slow reactions of the legislature, that suggest you're in for one hell of a bumpy ride over there.

It's not looking like being a picnic here either.
 
LeVeL said:
I have exactly zero faith in any estimates at this point because no one really knows where this is going to go.
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Make your own rough prediction of the next few days.
Go to the JHU dashboard, select US, select "Daily Increase" in the bottom right. You'll see that the daily increase itself increased pretty much every day.
Now select several other countries, ideally ones further along in flattening the curve, and see how their daily increase behaved relative to the peak daily increase. For example, Germany's daily increase stopped increasing about six days ago and is now slowly decreasing. South Korea took about ten days from the stop-of-increasing-increases to decrease down to manageable levels.
Armed with that "cohort of countries" behavioral data, ask yourself two questions: First, is the US at the peak daily increase now, or is it going to keep increasing? (hard to answer, I personally doubt it) Second, once peak daily increase has been reached, is the US faster or slower in getting that increase down again than the countries you compare it to? (I'm guessing a lot slower than South Korea, a bit slower than Germany - mostly because not all states/counties/whatever adhere strictly to flattening the curve)
Using those two answers you can roughly predict the future of the US daily increase.

Similarly, you can use the US confirmed case count, confirmed case age, and confirmed death toll to estimate how many unconfirmed cases there likely are (a lot) and how many yet unresolved future deaths there will be (a lot - recent infections don't have their outcomes yet, and the biggest number of recent detections is recent [not quite the same as recent infections, but it's the best data we have]).

Theoretical best case scenario, the US is already at the peak daily increase and does a South Korea right now, ie a few more days of those peak daily increases and then steep decreases... based on SK numbers that would still be 200-300k additional cases during the two weeks of decreases, and 1k daily from then on. Sadly, I don't think that best case scenario is realistic.
Another good case scenario, the US is already at the peak and does an Italy right now, ie continuing at constant daily increases - that's 26.4k daily new cases, or 185k a week.
A less good case scenario, the US keeps increasing their daily increase for a week, and then does an Italy. During the last week, daily new cases went up 2.5x, resulting in a steady state of 66k daily new cases. If 10% of those need an ICU bed for two weeks that's roughly all US ICU beds constantly occupied by covid patients [src]

Personally, I'm guessing the US will be somewhere between scenario 2 and 3... I'll try to remember to come back at this prediction in the future :think:



For illustration of my pessimism, US daily increases as of now:
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Nothing in that chart suggests it's getting better right now.
 
They are saying the peak will be towards the end of April... doesnt that mean we are guaranteed at least two months on the other side of the high point where we are quarantined? So end of June maybe July?
 
It's hard to tell the figures as, surprise, the PRC lied.
 
And that's if things go well.
 
But is the underlying logic good - that however much time is spent on the curve going up the equal amount of time it will take on the other side of the peak?
 
Momentum57 said:
But is the underlying logic good - that however much time is spent on the curve going up the equal amount of time it will take on the other side of the peak?
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Not necessarily. It may take less or more, depending on how successful (and generally how strict) are the measures put in place to fight the contagion.

The stricter the measures of containement, the faster the descent rate.
 
SirEdward said:
Not necessarily. It may take less or more, depending on how successful (and generally how strict) are the measures put in place to fight the contagion.

The stricter the measures of containement, the faster the descent rate.
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You also have to remember the whole herd immunity thing, the more people get over it and acquire immunity the less vectors for the virus to spread.
 
bone said:

wtf...
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Good luck with that. HOAs can't just foreclose because they feel like it, first they have to apply fines/fees, the homeowner would have to ignore/not pay the fine, the HOA would have to sue the homeowner and win in court, then, if the homeowner doesn't pay, they can petition the court for a lien on the property, then the can ask the court to foreclose on the property.
 
prizrak said:
You also have to remember the whole herd immunity thing, the more people get over it and acquire immunity the less vectors for the virus to spread.
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Yes, but herd immunity for Coronavirus is expected to require that large chunks of the population had been infected and either dead or recovered at some point (50%-70% to more or less stop the virus), which has still not happened anywhere in the world.
 
If you want to know what has happened in Lombardy, how things got so out of control and how much out of control they went, you can read it - in this article - (you will need to translate it, if you can't read italian).

Basically, the reasons were
a) bad sanitary management of the first cases
b) not enough tests
c) a strong reluctancy to put in place strict quarantine measures, for political and economical reasons.

One of the main reasons for the disaster is they didn't want to hurt the economy too much.
Unfortunately, now they have, in a worse way, and a lot of other people and things with it.

On a political level this catastrophe showed the shortcomings of the politicians, particularly (but by no means not exclusively) of the right-wing parties.

EDIT

On a lighter note, the figures in Italy are getting better.
 
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CraigB said:
Huge jump today! :oops:

1327 cases (+294) / 14 deaths (+1)

Governor Mike Parsons (appointed after Eric Greitens resigned due to fallout from an affair with his hairstylist the year before the 2016 election) really needs to act. This has gone too far. Kansas is on lockdown with far fewer cases and deaths.
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Another day, more cases.

1581 cases (+254) / 18 deaths (+4)

Still no word from our governor about a state-wide lockdown, but the National Guard have been deployed to assist hospitals.
 
NY city to convert hospitals to all ICU!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Need 2500 to 3000 ventilators more for next week.

Have 21k beds, adding 65K!!!!!!

 
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NY city has enough ventilators to last till Sunday!
 
Blind_Io said:
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/asian-...early-500-racist-acts-over-last-week-n1169821

Reported sharp increase in racist acts towards Asian Americas..
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That sucks but doesn't surprise me. When England lost the semi finals of Euro 96 to Germany on penalties two Polish language students were stabbed to death in Brighton that night by some drunken thugs.

And I realise that for you and Kiki that's a scary proposition. Keep your wits and guns beside you and both of you safe. You're both too awesome to lose, neither to virus nor violence xx.
 
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