Covid 19 CRISIS

The daily case situation is still getting worst here, despite the measures taken over the Christmas holiday period (gatherings were forbidden).

It's frustrating to follow all the directives, only to see the situation get worst, probably because of people who don't take this seriously.

The Christmas light-lockdown was supposed to finish yesterday, instead, we now have a bigger lockdown for 4 more weeks, with curfew from 20:00 until 05:00 (1500$ fine if you are caught outside in those hours without a valid reason).

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At least the daily death count is still lower than during the first wave.

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The number of people in hospital is still rising, and more worrisome, the number of people in ICU is getting pretty close to the numbers at the peak of the first wave.

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Well...I guess it's important to have realistic goals..."under-promise, and over-deliver) and all that...but there's got to be a baseline, right? ;)

(yes, it's real, and yes, I know it's a typo)

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Some random notes and thoughts....
  • Germany's lockdown seems to be working. If we don't see it as "the lockdown", but a two-phase approach, this is even more apparent:
    • Phase 1, until January 1 (showing up in positive tests by January 8-10), was about not getting a spike in infections like Ireland*, the UK, and the US aftger Thanksgiving did. This worked well - case numbers remained stable.
    • Phase 2, starting in January, now is about getting case numbers down. This seems to work as well, even if not as good as one might hope. My hometown of Berlin is on the same level of infections as on Oct. 26th, Germany as a whole as on Nov. 4th. How quick we got back there also shows how much time we wasted - we still have to slash case numbers by 80% or so until this is under control, and could have made our lives a lot easier.
    • Also, this does not mean we are back in the clear - if the Brit mutation has not already taken over, we still have to get the reproduction rate further down in order to control it as well.
    • Furthermore, I still think a EU-wide "zero covid" approach would be the best way forward.
  • Speaking of the Brit mutation (1): *Ireland claims it's surge in cases was due to the Brit mutation, not to political stupidity and irresponsible behaviour. The numbers tell a different story since half of the tenfold increase they saw after Christmas was still driven by standard covid, and at least half of the Brit mutation infections would have happened with standard covid as well (Brit mutation's share in infections rose from 25 to 50 percent during the surge). So they would have been less fucked, but still pretty much fucked, without the mutation.
  • Speaking of the Brit mutation (2): Both independent labs and Pfizer, with different methodologies, confirm that Pfizer vaccine-induced antibodies are effective against the mutation.
  • Speaking of the Brit mutation (3): Worrying news from AstraZeneca about "adapting their vaccine to highly transmissible variants" sounds a lot like their vaccine is not so efficient. I am sure this will have a huge impact on EU approval, or lack thereof. Luckily, with CureVac and Merck we have at least two further mRNA candidates in late stage testing.
  • Regarding covid mutations in general:
    Derek Lowe said:
    A new study shows that while antibody levels drop after a covid infection, the variety of antibodies present increases, meaning that people's immune system actually gets better over time in neutralizing different covid mutations, including the ones we are seeing right now. How is that possible? Evolution, bitches! Our immune system produces it's own mutations in antibodies, which of course is an evolutionary trait that helps with keeping up with viruses mutating themselves. And that this happens within six months, i.e. in a short enough timespan to be ready for the next winter wave, probably also is based on evolution - people who didn't adapt quickly enough died out thousands of years ago.
 
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Shit news/good news double post time.

According to a recent preprint and a NYT blog post reporting on a conference in South Africa, the South African/Brazilian Covid variant indeed is a partial immune escape one. With the same mutation cropping up independently across all areas expected to reach "herd immunity" soon, this was basically a given, evolutionary. The variant escaped the antibodies in almost half the blood samples from recovered covid patients tested.
Good news is - vaccine-induced immunity still holds up for Moderna and Pfizer, but with a significant reduction in antibody efficacy across all samples.

What does this mean in practical terms? Vaccination can - and must!- continue at full speed, but if I were Pfizer/Moderna, I'd start working on updated formulations right now.

EDIT: This is how the German press reports this: "Loopholes for mutations - The closer the new virus variants are examinmed, the bigger the concerns grow: Should they be able to subvert immune defenses? A new study uncovers flagging antibodies after mRNA-vaccination."

The article itself, of course, is paywalled. What we see here is unnerving, clickbaity writing: While all facts presented as such are true - scientists are concerned, there is immune escape, vaccine-generated response is affected, the wording suggests vaccines are under threat/not working any more. This is not true, plain and simple. The worst case scientists assume as possible is a slightly higher number in asymptomatic infections after vaccination.
 
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After 2 weeks of new lockdown and curfew, the situation seems to improve a bit in Quebec.

Good thing, because one of the new talking point is about ICU triage protocols that have been developed since last summer, basically, how they are going to decide who gets treated or not if the ICU occupation keeps increasing (the people in the not category being condemn to die).

On the sad side of the news, a first homeless person died from apparent hypothermia since the curfew was put in place. He was found one morning, dead, in a porta potty, probably trying to hide from the cops. What a sad and horrible way to die :(
 
Hooray, things have been improving.

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I want this shit to be over. Frustrated and annoyed.
 
With or without "super hyper ultra killer superspreader covid" mutations: We got vaccines incoming. We have the summer coming up. I am still confident we will get our normal lives back later this year, hopefully in Q3.

I hope that Oxford/AZ will soon share the data they handed in for EU approval with the general public so we can understand how good their vaccine really is, and that J&J soon report on their Phase 3 trial. With CureVac and Novavax added to the mix in Q3 latest, we should have all the vaccine we need.

Also, Eli Lilly say their antibodies prevent covid. Good news there!
 
In the Region, Costa Rica and Panama already have received their vaccinations and are on the way to distribute them for the populace.

Honduras has already spent about a hundred grand on 0 vaccines, has allocated more funding to it, and the authorities are deciding on whether they should Buy vaccines or just rely on whichever ones are donated to us.

I expected nothing, and I am still disappointed.
 
 
Here in Southern Utah our COVID-related hospital census, especially ICU utilization, finally seems to be declining after about 3 weeks of record numbers for our area. It hasn't been a lot of fun in the last few months being an outpatient physician, but it's nothing compared to what our ICU staff has been through. Real-life superheroes the lot of them.

On a side note, I got vaccine #2 today. Hopefully the next day or two won't be too bad. I don't tend to react much to other vaccines so we'll see. I expect my 5G reception to improve more in the coming weeks (though it's slightly possible getting a new phone soon will be a small factor in that).
 
I just got a 5G phone but coverage ends a kilometer or so from my house. Hopefully the upcoming vaccine shot will improve things, whenever the healthcare system decides it's my turn.
 
Are you growing any antennas yet?
Maybe.

At 24 hours I'm feeling some effects. Slight headache, mild body aches/stiffness, a touch of nausea at times. I've felt cold all day but no actual fever.
Not horrible overall, but enough I haven't done much today.
 
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