This number probably is a blip due to not all vaccination sites operating during the four day Easter weekend, and thus some overstock being used up. Fellow data nerd
@narf says we can't sustain the pace for the whole month on the supply side. But it shows how effortlessly our infrastructure can and will handle the ever-growing supply over the next three months.
based purely on the current published data, we're at *negative* a few hundred k Biontech doses in stock, because deliveries are only updated once a week these days... over the last two days we've administered over 1.1M Biontech doses, and their April delivery schedule is 2.5M a week. If we kept that pace we'd have gone through the week's supply in less than all five working days, leaving zero for the (slower but nonzero) weekends.
On the other hand we could truly put the hammer down on AZ, those last two days were only 220k AZ doses with 2M still in stock.
I expect much more shaky daily figures now that GPs are in the mix. If they get a weekly shipment I expect them to administer their entire shipment in one afternoon dedicated to covid vaccinations, leading to very bouncy per-day numbers. As an April average we are planned to have supply for over 3.5M weekly doses. As of today we're at 2.6M, including both slow Easter holidays and the massive last two days... so, we're on track, as we have been for the past four months despite the constant negative press covfefe
PS: those two days are really throwing off my purely-past-looking statistical prediction
Will need way more data points at the new pace to be reliable... but, it has the infamous "end of summer" September 30th set at 140M aggregated doses.
It's pointless though, because the algorithms used are very sensitive to latest-data repeated outliers.
Same approach but using 7-day periods ending yesterday puts us at 147M aggregated doses by September 30th.
If I had to guess what the reality will look like, we'll probably see steps up like this week, then a plateau at that level, then another step up when the next supply pace increase happens, then a plateau again, then probably a decline by June or July when we run out of eager first-dose-recipients and have to start convincing people.