@narf even better
So where do your prognosis put our first shot vaccination rare by end of May?
I'll do an mRNA prediction, AZ is too weird... and too irrelephant.
As of this morning, we've done 10.6M first and 5.3M second mRNA doses... so in one mRNA-separation-window we'll need to have used another 5.3M for the currently-unfinished people... I'll assume that is end of May, so 21.2M doses used for those 10.6M people. I'm also ignoring the low-six-figure people who we have to expect to die of various causes between their first and second shots throughout the vaccination campaign...
Based on the published delivery schedules we can expect to administer about 40M mRNA doses in total by the end of May, so 18.8M doses left over from the previous line - those can all go to first shots between now and end of May, yielding 29.4M first mRNA doses by end of May.
I believe Germany has about 70M adults, so 42% (obviously) first-mRNA-dose-rate for adults by the end of May, methinks.
AZ is at 4.1M doses as of this morning, I'm assuming they're all first doses. We do need to deduct a few million mRNA doses here to allow for under-60s first-AZ-dose people to get their second mRNA dose, that might be 3M ish. However, we can easily expect the future AZ doses to at least somewhat be used for more 60+ people, so I'm assuming those will cancel each other out. By end of May we could have a total of 10-15M AZ doses in arms, if people take them and there are no more oopsies.
Adding only those 4.1M already-administered first AZ doses and assuming the above does indeed cancel each other out in the coming weeks, we'd be at 33.5M first doses by the end of May, or almost 50% of the adult Germans.
As a rough ballpark, that's about as many adults as we can expect to be in groups 1 through 3, so we should see group 4 first vaccinations starting by the end of May with high (90+) uptake percentages in groups 1 through 3, mid-May with low uptake.
...do remind me to look back at this in 2, 4, 6, 8 weeks ?
PS: To illustrate why we can suddenly put more shots in arms, this is deliveries per week as of Sunday:
The GPs are helping distribute it, but they're not the root cause. Delivery increases are... the same-size-as-the-last green column for this week is there but not published in the data yet because they moved to once-per-week ex-post for delivery data instead of same-day.