narf
Sgt. Maj. Buzzkill
Mkay, I've now looked at the data properly, and can conclude a few things:
Allowing the German group 4 from tomorrow is perfect timing, this weekend we'll have crossed over the 80% threshold for first shots of the 60+ year old people(*). That doesn't necessarily mean that group 3 is at 80%, I'm expecting a declining percentage from 1 through 3 - but it means a really really big chunk of the willing people in those three groups have had their shot already, or have at least an appointment.
Getting a good handle on deliveries is getting harder... for example, https://www.bundesgesundheitsminist...eferprognosen_aller_Hersteller_2._Quartal.pdf claims 10M JJ and 12.4M+ AZ in Q2... but the individual weeks left unfilled would need *massive* delivery increases to meet those Q2 numbers. AZ is plausible but uncertain, JJ is ridiculous... they would need to deliver the entirety of the JJ shipments so far every single week to meet the Q2 goal.
As a result of the following will be less precise for those two, and also less precise if mix-and-match vaccinations between AZ and mRNA happen a lot. I'd love to know how those get reported in the data... will we eventually end up with more 2nd shots of Biontech than 1st shots? Also while we're here, how do recovered covid patients appear, without a need for a second shot?
Let's go manufacturer by manufacturer to guesstimate end-of-June shot counts:
Biontech: Currently 25.3M / 14.3M first / second shots. Based on deliveries we can expect around 18M more shots, and we need about 9M of those for 2nd shots due by the end of the month... so, around 34.3M first and 23.3M second shots from the Goldgrube.
Moderna: 3.0M / 1.3M, about 2M more shots delivered, 1.5M needed for 2nd shots... so, 3.5M/2.8M.
AZ: 8.7M/0.8M, allegedly somewhere in the region of 6-7M maybe ready by the end of June , around 2.2M 2nd shots needed, maybe, see above ... so, 12.7M/3M.
JJ: 0.8M so far, no 2nd shots necessary, but huge uncertainty in June deliveries, so I'll just ? and say 3M more shots by end of June... so, 3.8M.
Summed up, that's 54.3M first shots and 32.9M fully vax'd people, 65.4% / 39.6% of the population... 83.4M shots, pretty much on point one shot per person ?
Fun Fact: AZ was approved January 29th... however, the data suggests there were around 60 AZ vaccinations before that date
(*) based on all Länder with detailed DIM reporting, ie without the Axis of Hinterwäldler (Bayern, Berlin, Sachsen, Sachsen-Anhalt)
Allowing the German group 4 from tomorrow is perfect timing, this weekend we'll have crossed over the 80% threshold for first shots of the 60+ year old people(*). That doesn't necessarily mean that group 3 is at 80%, I'm expecting a declining percentage from 1 through 3 - but it means a really really big chunk of the willing people in those three groups have had their shot already, or have at least an appointment.
Getting a good handle on deliveries is getting harder... for example, https://www.bundesgesundheitsminist...eferprognosen_aller_Hersteller_2._Quartal.pdf claims 10M JJ and 12.4M+ AZ in Q2... but the individual weeks left unfilled would need *massive* delivery increases to meet those Q2 numbers. AZ is plausible but uncertain, JJ is ridiculous... they would need to deliver the entirety of the JJ shipments so far every single week to meet the Q2 goal.
As a result of the following will be less precise for those two, and also less precise if mix-and-match vaccinations between AZ and mRNA happen a lot. I'd love to know how those get reported in the data... will we eventually end up with more 2nd shots of Biontech than 1st shots? Also while we're here, how do recovered covid patients appear, without a need for a second shot?
Let's go manufacturer by manufacturer to guesstimate end-of-June shot counts:
Biontech: Currently 25.3M / 14.3M first / second shots. Based on deliveries we can expect around 18M more shots, and we need about 9M of those for 2nd shots due by the end of the month... so, around 34.3M first and 23.3M second shots from the Goldgrube.
Moderna: 3.0M / 1.3M, about 2M more shots delivered, 1.5M needed for 2nd shots... so, 3.5M/2.8M.
AZ: 8.7M/0.8M, allegedly somewhere in the region of 6-7M maybe ready by the end of June , around 2.2M 2nd shots needed, maybe, see above ... so, 12.7M/3M.
JJ: 0.8M so far, no 2nd shots necessary, but huge uncertainty in June deliveries, so I'll just ? and say 3M more shots by end of June... so, 3.8M.
Summed up, that's 54.3M first shots and 32.9M fully vax'd people, 65.4% / 39.6% of the population... 83.4M shots, pretty much on point one shot per person ?
Fun Fact: AZ was approved January 29th... however, the data suggests there were around 60 AZ vaccinations before that date
(*) based on all Länder with detailed DIM reporting, ie without the Axis of Hinterwäldler (Bayern, Berlin, Sachsen, Sachsen-Anhalt)