Gaza mk2

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So, any thoughts?

I'm a little worried because of the Egyptian rethoric, if the Egyptian leadership is pushed domesticly, they may very well start acting out. It may lead to war against Egypt. And that will be the end of Bibi Netanyahu's political career. And it's still not a good thing.
 
So, any thoughts?

I'm a little worried because of the Egyptian rethoric, if the Egyptian leadership is pushed domesticly, they may very well start acting out. It may lead to war against Egypt. And that will be the end of Bibi Netanyahu's political career. And it's still not a good thing.

How would it be the end of Netanyahu? He hasn't instigated a war with Egypt yet has plenty to be uncomfortable about with the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt. If anything, I think a war would give Netanyahu the chance to make Israel seem more secure.

But that isn't the pressing issue right now. A ground assault on Gaza is bad enough, and I'd be more worried that Israel, for the sake of security, will move into Syria to secure the border. They have to be plenty on edge just because of that.
 
The Egyptian president was quoted in Norwegian press earlier saying something in the lines of "Israel should be aware there's a new leadership in Kairo", which really is diplo-speak for "did you spill my pint?".

I suppose I'm a little uneasy with it, you never know with the brotherhood, but if a war breaks out between Israel and Egypt over Gaza, I have no doubt that the concequence will be the end of the Netanyahu government, at least further down the line.

THE GREATEST geopolitical risk Israel faces is a conventional war with a nation that's not Lebanon. The Arabs can lose lots of times, Israel can't lose once.

Never mind the fact Jerusalem has been hit by missiles for the first time since 1970 and the fact that something like five Israeli civilians are dead (which is, I think, close to the total numbers in the last five years), Bibi wants to hit his chest and look tough. He is an unadulterated idiot.
 
What interests me more than the larger geopolitical matters is a question of military tactics: Now that Hamas rockets can finally reach Jerusalem and Tel Aviv, how will that influence the IDF's tactics?
In theory, a larger Israeli vulnerability should give Hamas an advantage in negotiations, thus both sides, Israel to protect its people and Hamas cause they can bargain better, should have an incentive to return to the bargaining table.

On the other hand, I fear the current Israel leadership is not in a bargaining mood and thus the other, and more likely option would be to ramp up military action against Hamas.

On a not entirely unrelated note, I recommend anyone who wants to understand IDF tactics and thinking to read Kasher/Yadlin.
 
Many people are looking at this and saying that it's an attempt by Netanyahu and the right wing coalition to look tough before the election. This isn't the case and I'll tell you why. 75,000 troops are prepping to go in to Gaza to rout out the threat of rockets, and we can guarantee that there will be less than 75,000 going home. Dead soldiers looks bad for ANY Israeli politician and as a result poll numbers will suffer. The Labor/Kadima/Yesh Atid coalition that is forming will gain from this conflict, not Likud/Yisrael Beiteinu.

EDIT: In regard to Egyptian rhetoric: Nothing Egypt says really matters. History tells us that the affinity between the Egyptians and the Palestinians is far weaker than anything that Morsi has said lately. I don't expect anything they say to amount to a legitimate factor in this conflict.
 
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On the other hand, I fear the current Israel leadership is not in a bargaining mood and thus the other, and more likely option would be to ramp up military action against Hamas.

I have to side with this, unless the U.S. pulls the chain to hold them back. Although, I wouldn't be surprised to see Israel give the finger to the U.S. and escalate military action either. I'm not really sure what to think except to step back and watch with the rest of the world.
 
The Egyptian president was quoted in Norwegian press earlier saying something in the lines of "Israel should be aware there's a new leadership in Kairo", which really is diplo-speak for "did you spill my pint?".

I suppose I'm a little uneasy with it, you never know with the brotherhood, but if a war breaks out between Israel and Egypt over Gaza, I have no doubt that the concequence will be the end of the Netanyahu government, at least further down the line.

THE GREATEST geopolitical risk Israel faces is a conventional war with a nation that's not Lebanon. The Arabs can lose lots of times, Israel can't lose once.

Never mind the fact Jerusalem has been hit by missiles for the first time since 1970 and the fact that something like five Israeli civilians are dead (which is, I think, close to the total numbers in the last five years), Bibi wants to hit his chest and look tough. He is an unadulterated idiot.

I'm still not sure how this makes Bibi look bad. Surely the Israeli people WANT a military response to these rockets, and he's giving them just that. And frankly, no country around Israel would be able to commit a war against them. Egypt's military is dealing with domestic matters and isn't organized for a war, Lebanon wouldn't want to get involved period, i think, and Syria is in disarray. All out war would involve a massive Israeli victory.

I have to side with this, unless the U.S. pulls the chain to hold them back. Although, I wouldn't be surprised to see Israel give the finger to the U.S. and escalate military action either. I'm not really sure what to think except to step back and watch with the rest of the world.

Israel doesn't have to give the US the finger. The US is formally supporting them in this.

http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/...luding-ground-forces-213412646--politics.html
U.S. backs Israel on Gaza?including use of ground forces

The White House on Thursday threw its full support behind Israel's military response to a barrage of rockets fired by the Islamist Palestinian movement Hamas that rules the Gaza Strip. Deputy National Security Adviser for Strategic Communications Ben Rhodes said it would be "up to the Israeli government" whether to follow up punishing airstrikes with a ground assault.

"Our view is that the Israelis have the right of self-defense when their citizens are faced with the threat of indiscriminate rocket fire from within Gaza," Rhodes told reporters on a conference call.

Asked whether the Obama administration would have any issues with an Israeli ground assault, Rhodes replied that "ultimately, it's up to the Israeli government to make determinations about how they're going to carry out their military objectives."
 
THE GREATEST geopolitical risk Israel faces is a conventional war with a nation that's not Lebanon. The Arabs can lose lots of times, Israel can't lose once.

The Arab world is extremely weak now. They were stronger when they fought with Israel before and they lost. Hell even with the backing of the U.S. they failed fighting Iran (when the Iranian military was at its weakest).

I would guess the most powerful Middle Eastern military states now are Turkey, Iran, and Israel. Note that none of these are Arab.
 
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I have to side with this, unless the U.S. pulls the chain to hold them back. Although, I wouldn't be surprised to see Israel give the finger to the U.S. and escalate military action either. I'm not really sure what to think except to step back and watch with the rest of the world.

Remember that Israel has a lot to lose politically from pissing off America. Netanyahu and Obama already have a shaky relationship and any bumps will not bode well because Obama is a second term president with less to lose.

I'm still not sure how this makes Bibi look bad. Surely the Israeli people WANT a military response to these rockets, and he's giving them just that. And frankly, no country around Israel would be able to commit a war against them. Egypt's military is dealing with domestic matters and isn't organized for a war, Lebanon wouldn't want to get involved period, i think, and Syria is in disarray. All out war would involve a massive Israeli victory.

Like I said before, any IDF soldiers in body bags are an emotional symbol for Israeli voters. There is a lot of stress in Israel right now regarding the 75,000 called up. No one there wants to see casualties. This is not a culture that willingly sacrifices out of pride; Netanyahu cannot risk much damage if he wants his coalition of right-wingers to maintain control as favor is already shifting to other figures on the left.
 
Iron Dome seems to be performing fairly well.
 
How would it be the end of Netanyahu? He hasn't instigated a war with Egypt yet has plenty to be uncomfortable about with the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt. If anything, I think a war would give Netanyahu the chance to make Israel seem more secure.

But that isn't the pressing issue right now. A ground assault on Gaza is bad enough, and I'd be more worried that Israel, for the sake of security, will move into Syria to secure the border. They have to be plenty on edge just because of that.

I seriously doubt that the Egyptians are in a position to be fighting a war, empty words from them
 
Iron Dome seems to be performing fairly well.
As long as a Hamas extends the range and amount of it's rockets enough to hit Jerusalem and Tel Aviv, it's not performing well enough to be an advantage.
 
My friend actually caught a pretty spooky picture of Iron Dome contrails in the shape of a star of david. take a look:

edWH6.jpg

I wouldn't call that spooky. The star of david isn't exactly a complex shape.
 
I'm just tired of pseudo activists posting shit on Facebook about "save the Palestinian people" and by that calling out Israel as this monster state oppressing the poor palestines... They seem to completely forget there's aggression from both sides, and that palestines should be saved as much from Hamas as from Israel, if not more.
 
I'm just tired of pseudo activists posting shit on Facebook about "save the Palestinian people" and by that calling out Israel as this monster state oppressing the poor palestines... They seem to completely forget there's aggression from both sides, and that palestines should be saved as much from Hamas as from Israel, if not more.

people over simplifying it like that on facebook as well shit me, it's like do you guys actually have enough knowledge about the issue to be comment either way? I know I don't
 
Many people are looking at this and saying that it's an attempt by Netanyahu and the right wing coalition to look tough before the election. This isn't the case and I'll tell you why. 75,000 troops are prepping to go in to Gaza to rout out the threat of rockets, and we can guarantee that there will be less than 75,000 going home. Dead soldiers looks bad for ANY Israeli politician and as a result poll numbers will suffer. The Labor/Kadima/Yesh Atid coalition that is forming will gain from this conflict, not Likud/Yisrael Beiteinu.
Well, it all depends. I don't believe Bibi expected it to escalate to this level this quickly.

EDIT: In regard to Egyptian rhetoric: Nothing Egypt says really matters. History tells us that the affinity between the Egyptians and the Palestinians is far weaker than anything that Morsi has said lately. I don't expect anything they say to amount to a legitimate factor in this conflict.
I don't expect anything either. But as theoretical threats go, it's a big one. Egypts in a sad state, but she's bloody big, and that's something to be dealth with if it goes pear shaped.

I'm still not sure how this makes Bibi look bad. Surely the Israeli people WANT a military response to these rockets, and he's giving them just that. And frankly, no country around Israel would be able to commit a war against them. Egypt's military is dealing with domestic matters and isn't organized for a war, Lebanon wouldn't want to get involved period, i think, and Syria is in disarray. All out war would involve a massive Israeli victory.
I may be a little biased, as I view Bibi Netanyahu a one of the sorriest excuses for a human being involved i running a democracy. He is a complete and utter bastard.

All out war would end up with an Israeli victory. But at what price? And as for what makes Bibi look bad, the escalation that happened after the Israeli response would probably not have happened, people are dead in Israel as a result.

The Arab world is extremely weak now. They were stronger when they fought with Israel before and they lost. Hell even with the backing of the U.S. they failed fighting Iran (when the Iranian military was at its weakest).

I would guess the most powerful Middle Eastern military states now are Turkey, Iran, and Israel. Note that none of these are Arab.
No doubt about that. But there are an awful lot of them there.

Remember that Israel has a lot to lose politically from pissing off America. Netanyahu and Obama already have a shaky relationship and any bumps will not bode well because Obama is a second term president with less to lose.
He more or less tried to get Romney elected, that sort of thing is not very clever when you're running an American ally. He thinks he's a lot more clever than he actually is, and this brings it out.

I'm just tired of pseudo activists posting shit on Facebook about "save the Palestinian people" and by that calling out Israel as this monster state oppressing the poor palestines... They seem to completely forget there's aggression from both sides, and that palestines should be saved as much from Hamas as from Israel, if not more.
This is true.

The fact of the matter is that there are no sides in the Middle East that's not filled with unspeakably stupid, egotistic and arrogant bastards.

And there are no sides where you can't find unspeakable kindness and goodness.

That being said; Israel is the occupying power, and is, as such, heavily responsible for what results from said occupation. So does the terrorists, though.
 
Egypt has to choose its own path for the future. And they have, I suppose. Pity they couldn't be more like Libya, really.
 
A few interesting Iron Dome videos:

Near the end of the video you can see Iron Dome ripple firing missiles to intercept multiple separate incoming rockets.

This is what is sounds like in Tel Aviv.
 
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