Rumour Mill: Netherlands looks to ban all non-electric cars by 2025

eizbaer

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Sorta tangential to the discussion but found it to be pretty cool, shows what type of power generation is used and where. Only thing I'm not sure if renewables includes hydro or not.


Looking at Norway at 98% renewable: definitely includes hydro :p

edit: what is the forum doing with that quote?..

edit2: looking at that I was not aware how many countries actually have such high numbers for renewable generation, pretty incredible imo.
 
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prizrak

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Looking at Norway at 98% renewable: definitely includes hydro :p

edit: what is the forum doing with that quote?..

edit2: looking at that I was not aware how many countries actually have such high numbers for renewable generation, pretty incredible imo.
Well if it includes hydro, it's been a pretty popular choice in places where it's possible for a while
 

narf

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You don't need to charge the one with no wind. It has already been charged -before- the wind stopped, and the energy contained in it can be used as a backup for the other facility, so to have an even consumption of the stored energy, while selling the energy from the other wind farm directly to the users. That's why you built it in the first place.

It will be recharged next day by the wind, because if it doesn't (on average), then you have a shortage of power production, not a problem of power storage.
You need enough distributed generation to offset local calm days and weeks. The storage near those would run out quickly and idle - or be filled from remote generation to then be discharged to remote consumers.
Same with solar - if you size the storage new a large solar plant for winter, it will need to use other remote storage in summer. If you size it for summer, its storage would be idle a lot in winter - or be filled from remote generation to then be discharged to remote consumers.

Wind and solar are highly variable by nature. Sizing local storage that rarely goes idle (too much dedicated storage throughout the grid) and that rarely gets charged from remote generation (those transport losses you fear) is a contradiction.

Actually, yes. The less request for oil, the less its price. Power the industry with renewables and the oil for cars will be cheaper. Apart form that, I'm ano against BEVs per se, I just don't think they can be used as moving storage facilities, like you propose.
The renewables aren't replacing oil, mostly nuclear. In fact, natural gas even has slightly increased. Oil never was a significant part of our electricity. If any fossil fuels are replaced then it's coal.

 

prizrak

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The renewables aren't replacing oil, mostly nuclear. In fact, natural gas even has slightly increased. Oil never was a significant part of our electricity. If any fossil fuels are replaced then it's coal.
You are saying that the only way a renewable grid is possible is with a whole bunch of BEVs, since one follows the other it follows that less oil will be used by cars.
 

SirEdward

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You need enough distributed generation to offset local calm days and weeks. The storage near those would run out quickly and idle - or be filled from remote generation to then be discharged to remote consumers.
EDIT - Just removed a useless and confusingly deployed organizational element - /EDIT

You -always- need to generate enough overall power to match the consumption of your system, otherwise you will experience blackouts. You may generate it in a single place, in many stable places, or in many variable places, but the overall amount of energy produced -has to be- over a certain limit.

The direct consequence is that when your renewable plant gets idle, the energy is produced elsewhere and sold to where needed.There is no need to store it away if it's used right at that moment. The distance to cover, in this case, is (on average) the same as with your solution, becaue you don't have to charge anything.

If the needs to store the energy arise, you can store it either -near the site of production- or, in your scenario, in BEVs near the site of -presumed- future peak demand. That -presumed- element is the key. If the BEVs moves, or if the peak demand is, by any chance, some place else, you would have moved electricity to a place to then use it in a different place, getting energy to travel -more- distance than if you had power near the production site.

If your, say, wind farm is idle for long, because for weeks you have no wind, the excess energy it stored -before- is used up and depleted, and then the amount of energy needed is provided by other power plants somewhere else and transported directly where it's needed. If it were BEVs, the energy produced by the weeks-idle wind farm would be depleted anyway. Remember, you have an overall production that is able to provide an minimum amount of energy to your system, averaging the production among the country.

If, on the contrary, your wind farm is generating much energy for a long time, it can store the amount the storage facility is able to accomodate and then sell the rest directly to the grid, thus doing what will not be done by other idle farm with depleted storage facilities.

In this scenario, there is no need to move energy from one production site to any distant storage facilities.

In your scenario, BEVs would act as (inconsistently placed and available) storage facilities for energy which should then be allocated where it's needed, and you can't fully foresee where, because of the nature of renewable energies.

If you, on the other hand, are suggesting of storing energy in cars all the time and then use it from them, you are adding passages and distances to energy transportation, which are not needed to make the system work.

Same with solar - if you size the storage new a large solar plant for winter, it will need to use other remote storage in summer. If you size it for summer, its storage would be idle a lot in winter -
Solar is easier than wind, in this regard. If you had only solar farms, you -surely- would have excess production in summer, so you would have to store it somewhere, be it BEVs or storage facilities. Then scale them to accomodate excess energy for the winter.

If you have solar combined with other sources, size the facilities properly for production, and sell it directly to the grid when the facilitiy is full and as long as the bonanza continues. Lower the amount produced by other sources or use -their- energy (now in excess) to charge -their- own storage facilities for later. That would move the energy by no more distance than you would by charging BEVs.

BEVs are still unnecessary, because they would have the same transportation issues and, if not scaled, they would fill up and waste any excess energy anyway.

or be filled from remote generation to then be discharged to remote consumers.
This, as I have shown, is never happening.

Wind and solar are highly variable by nature. Sizing local storage that rarely goes idle (too much dedicated storage throughout the grid) and that rarely gets charged from remote generation (those transport losses you fear) is a contradiction.
Why can't it be idle? When the energy produced from its source is low for too long, it WILL be idle. The important thing is you don't -waste- any excess energy. When the facility is too full, as I have said, sell the produced energy somewhere else where there are idle plants, or lower the production of other sources to avoid wasting any energy. You would do this even by directly selling to BEVs.

The difference is you would already know -where- to allocate energy, while with BEVs you are just making assumption, and that would make you lose part of the energy in useless transportation later on.

The renewables aren't replacing oil, mostly nuclear. In fact, natural gas even has slightly increased. Oil never was a significant part of our electricity. If any fossil fuels are replaced then it's coal.
Narf, of course in your chart it isn't replacing oil... your chart shows the -production- of energy by sources in Germany, which produces no oil... I assure you there are countries that -do- produce oil and could use renewables to lower that production or use it for other things. Even Italy, for example (less than 10% produtction and declining).

The lowering in oil demand will lower oil prices for the same amount extracted. The recent war on oil prices started because there was an excess production which has be kept in order to kill some of the most expensive competitors off. The USA ones, for example. The price will rise again, but not so much, otherwise the expensive competition would come right back and steal market shares off, greatly displeasing some countries.

More renewable sources, more electric vehicles, less demand for oil, more competitiveness from old ICEs.
 
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narf

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SirEdward said:
You -always- need to generate enough overall power to match the consumption of your system, otherwise you will experience blackouts. You may generate it in a single place, in many stable places, or in many variable places, but the overall amount of energy produced -has to be- over a certain limit.

The direct consequence is that when your renewable plant gets idle, the energy is produced elsewhere and sold to where needed.There is no need to store it away if it's used right at that moment. The distance to cover, in this case, is (on average) the same as with your solution, becaue you don't have to charge anything.
One wind farm being idle doesn't mean the others aren't making more supply than demand, the need to charge the idle site is still there.
If not, you've invested too much in batteries.

In your scenario, BEVs would act as (inconsistently placed and available) storage facilities for energy which should then be allocated where it's needed, and you can't fully foresee where, because of the nature of renewable energies.
Given enough BEVs, ie a whole country, there would always be BEVs everywhere.

This, as I have claimed, is never happening.
FTFY.

Why can't it be idle? When the energy produced from its source is low for too long, it WILL be idle.
An idle battery is a wasted investment.

Narf, of course in your chart it isn't replacing oil... your chart shows the -production- of energy by sources in Germany, which produces no oil...I assure you there are countries that -do- produce oil and could use renewables to lower that production or use it for other things. Even Italy, for example (less than 10% produtction and declining).
Germany doesn't produce significant natural gas either... This is electricity production, regardless of where the fuel was imported from. Almost all our imported oil ends up in transportation, the rest in heating.

As for other countries... Globally, oil is just about 5% of the electricity market. Changing the way we make the electrons shake their booty has little direct impact on oil demand.

- - - Updated - - -

I don't think it's simple at all :no: anyone claiming it's a straightforward swap is bonkers.
 

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Battery powered cars... I just don't see this being feasible yet. Our current battery tech is just inadequate. The toxic stuff that goes in them, the mining to get to that stuff, the disposal, wasn't there a consensus that the net pollution from all that was way higher than the pollution of a standard car?
 

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Netherlands looks to ban all non-electric cars by 2025

Battery powered cars... I just don't see this being feasible yet. Our current battery tech is just inadequate. The toxic stuff that goes in them, the mining to get to that stuff, the disposal, wasn't there a consensus that the net pollution from all that was way higher than the pollution of a standard car?
That study was for NiMH (or was it NiCad?) batteries that older Prii used, not sure if it still holds true for LiPo stuff
 

prizrak

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The batteries are not "disposed" of, they are recycled.
Not 100%, not infinitely recyclable and still not necessarily clean to do that. Either way his assertion is demonstrably untrue considering that we have commercially available BEVs that are driving around the streets right now.
 

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One wind farm being idle doesn't mean the others aren't making more supply than demand, the need to charge the idle site is still there. If not, you've invested too much in batteries.
Actually, no. That's why I suggest having storage facilities near each wind farm. If you then find yourselve having all batteries full except the one near the idle wind far, charge that one too, but that means you need -more- of them, not less, because you have a moment of superproduction.

Storage facilities are meant to store energy during peak production to be used later. If you have all the nearest batteries fully charged, you simply reduce the load on those which are still not charging their own storage facilities and use the excess prodction from the already charged ones to power the grid as near you as you can.

The problem in our small "gedankenexperiment" with just wind farms is that you do need big batteries because of the variability of your source. You need avoid wasting any energy you can produce and maybe store it for later, so you need big batteries.

This also apply if you use the BEVs. IIRC it were you who said BEVs stored power would equal the household consumption, so 20% of that is quite small to compensate the variability of a grid made of just wind farms, for example. If you had wind farms producing energy for an average of 180 days a year each, for example, it means you should have a grid requiring only up to their average production, probably roughly around half their peak production, which means you might find yourself in a situation when pretty much all of them are producing their top (very windy days on the entire county, to simplify) and which means you would have to have batteries capable of storing that excess energy for when there would be no wind at all. BEVs' battery capacity ofr this purpose would be minimal; you should already have storage facilities.

BEVs storing can be effective for single households and very small production turbines or solar panels, -without- that energy being sold to the grid. They could be used to store the -privately- produced energy during peak prodction times to later power the house while the turbine then sells energy to the grid when prices are high. That would work. But you require private production and storage, no middle men.

An idle battery is a wasted investment.
Why? A battery is only necessary when you have something to store in it. And you might have idle periods. It would certainly raise the return you have to make when it is used, but it's not wasted.

An idle BEV in your scenario, on the other hand, would just be a very expensive battery.

Germany doesn't produce significant natural gas either... This is electricity production, regardless of where the fuel was imported from. Almost all our imported oil ends up in transportation, the rest in heating. As for other countries... Globally, oil is just about 5% of the electricity market.
Of course you use natural gas instead of oil, it's cheaper... But, as you noticed, when I talked about oil prices, I wasn't just considering Germany. Global reduction in consumption (yes, even cars) equals global reduction in prices and/or production. The oil trend in the long run is we will need less of it, so I don't think it will go back to the stellar prices it had. High prices, yes; ludicrous prices? No.
 

narf

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SirEdward said:
Wasn't Germany producing 30% off of renewable sources? And growing? Your idea is a bit too old. It is one of the reasons why oil is so low in price.
Of course you use natural gas instead of oil, it's cheaper... But, as you noticed, when I talked about oil prices, I wasn't just considering Germany. Global reduction in consumption (yes, even cars) equals global reduction in prices and/or production. The oil trend in the long run is we will need less of it, so I don't think it will go back to the stellar prices it had. High prices, yes; ludicrous prices? No.
Producing renewable electricity doesn't influence the use of oil by cars until there are significant non-ICE cars on the road. I still don't see how - as you claimed - Germany making loads of renewable energy significantly contributed to the drop in oil prices.
 

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How many electric cars does it take to store a lightning strike?
A lightning strike is 1-10 gigajoules, which is ~277-2,770 kilowatt-hours, so 4-100 cars, depending on how big their battery packs are, and assuming you have some really good capacitors to absorb the strike and spread out its energy distribution to the cars over a more manageable timeframe. :p
 

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Producing renewable electricity doesn't influence the use of oil by cars until there are significant non-ICE cars on the road. I still don't see how - as you claimed - Germany making loads of renewable energy significantly contributed to the drop in oil prices.
Was that the only thing you find useful to comment of my last answer?

Good, it means the rest of the things I said were correct at least to the point of making it not necessary for you to answer them.

As for the rest. Oil prices dropped in the last two years, and oil demand growth is -slowing- down in 2016, keeping the trend rather stable in the past 15 years. Demand grows, then, you'd say, (also thanks to very low oil prices) but the growth in demand has been driven by asian countries in the last years, while the demand from the Western countries has been mostly stable in the last 5 years, even if the economy of most of them has increased or restarted after the 2008 crisis.

Also, transportation is one of the sectors where renewable sources have grown the most.

That said, yes, I agree that oil use -by cars- will not change so much until non-ICE cars will be have more significant numbers. But that is happening, so I assume -there will be- a growing impact on oil consumption by cars in the next years; so I suspect oul prices won't be stellar again as they were years ago. High, yes. Stellar, no. That is the main point I made throughout.
 
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narf

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Was that the only thing you find useful to comment of my last answer?

Good, it means the rest of the things I said were correct at least to the point of making it not necessary for you to answer them.
Nah, it was just the most blatant contradiction, rendering the rest pointless. "Wasn't Germany producing 30% [electricity] off of renewable sources? ... I wasn't just considering Germany ... (yes, even cars)"
 

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Nah, it was just the most blatant contradiction, rendering the rest pointless. "Wasn't Germany producing 30% [electricity] off of renewable sources? ... I wasn't just considering Germany ... (yes, even cars)"
Do you realize the two topics were separated, right?

BEVs and oil prices have never been the same topic in our exchange. Treating the two as one is not a good sign.

Well... do what you like. I don't want to encourage your bad signs, and I surely don't want to continue talking with someone who use one part of what I say to negate other unrelated parts.

We don't have to agree, but you have to treat my opinions with the same respect I use for yours.

Bye.
 
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