nomix
True Viking
- Joined
- May 26, 2005
- Messages
- 7,293
- Location
- Norway
- Car(s)
- Tend do walk the 40 meters from my bed to lecture.
Round about now, diplomats from the different camps are putting pressure on Israel and Palestinian leadership. The quartet is probably telling Israel to concede something, and telling Abbas to stop going to quickly. Israel say a push for Palestinian statehood will have "grave concequences, among other things, their Foreign Ministry says this push will mean the Oslo accords are dead to them. The US is saying much of the same, but with more diplomatic language.
What's up? For some time, negotiation between Israel and their Palestinian counterparts in Ramallah has been interrupted. The Palestinian side will not rejoin the negotiations before Israel seise settlement building on what they refer to as the "occupied West Bank", Israel believes settlements will have to resolved at the negotiation table. The beginnings of a reconciliation between Fatah and Hamas hasn't made Israel's position on this any more lenient, if anything, it's complicated the issue.
Israel on its side is seeing growing tension from neighbors and former allies. The Arab spring has left Israel's South flank naked, with Hosni Mubarak ousted from power in Egypt. Growing instability in Jordan also plays a part, especially over a rather contentius issue over the queen, Ranja, who is Palestinian. Another headache for Israel is Syria, which is poised on the brink of civil war, further risking instability. To the North, a long time friendly ally of Israel, Turkey, has reduced diplomatic relations with her - the freezing of an important pipeline deal is but one concequence of this. Relations between the once close allies has reached a level where Recep Erdogan, the Prime Minister of Turkey has called it "a moral imperative" to support statehood for the Palestinians. In Turkey's case, the catalyst is undoubtedly the contested killings of Turkish citizens on the Aid Flotilla attempting to reach Gaza last year.
It's safe to say that no one in Israel would have expected this geopolitical situation just one year ago. While the flotilla situation was a grave and made diplomatic relations between Israel and her arab neighbors, Turkey in particular, sour, a situation like this would hardly be expected.
These days, the Palestinian government in Ramallah is planning a bid for statehood at the UN. There are two options presenting themselves:
1. Apply for full recognition by the UN, as a member state
2. Apply for observing member nation status
The first option is tempting, and in the UN General Assembly, there is little doubt the Palestinian bid would win favor. Head counts indicate that 130-140 of 193 member states supports the bid. The issue with the first option is of course that a full member state status must be ratified by the UN Security Council, not just the UNGA. The US is crystal clear that they will oppose Palestinian statehood at this stage, and will therefore use their veto, other veto nations may also choose to veto the bid.
The second option is more appealing from a practical standpoint. First of all, it doesn't depend on SC ratification, and will therefore be possible to obtain. This has several obvious advantages, one of which is that the US won't have to veto it, thereby helping to keep what faith the Arab world still has with the US. Another point is that it is obtainable, but will offer some extra chips to the Palestinian government. They can for instance go to the international war tribunal and sue Israel over settlement building, something they can't do now, due to not being a member state or an observing member state. Some sources indicate that the Palestinian government will obstain from playing that card for now, keeping it for later.
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Opinions
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Anyhow, what will this mean? In the short term, it'll mean jack shit. In the long term, it might make a little difference. One point that can't be overlooked, is that the diplomatic strategy of the Netanyahu regime of stalling on negotiations to have as large a part of the occupied West Bank settled before any agreement is realized, has failed. Israel is more isolated than ever because of that strategy, and Netanyahu has met one of his greatest failiures ever. His strategy was bonkers from day one, dangerous and stupid. And it shows quite clearly now.
I don't know if I'm really in favor of statehood at this pace. On one hand, I think it's only right and proper for Israel to get a proper diplomatic spanking. Israel needs to learn that stalling won't help them in the long run, it'll hurt them. The condition that further illegal building on the West Bank be stopped before negtiations is a decent demand, and I do support that one. So Netanyahu needs this blow to the groin, more to the point, Israel needs to learn that while there are some nations that'll help her stay a spoilt child, there are great forces in the world that doesn't share that opinion.
For too long, Israel has been an obese child, and daddy America has been buying too many Happy Meals. That's not being a good dad, that's being a lousy dad.
However, I'm still not convinced. The notion that statehood will have any real concequences on the ground in Palestine without an agreement with Israel is bonkers. It won't. Israel still has the ability to reinstate the occupation of the Palestinian territories, and as long as that's a viable option, that's enough said. It won't make Palestine a state any more than it will remove the settlements. Another important point is of course that the needed agreement with Hamas is nowhere near complete, and while I think Hamas is a bunch of murderous, ignorant, stupid and religiously extreme bastards, there's no doubt they'll have to be a part of the sollution. Giving Hamas time to moderate itself will take time, possibly years. It will also mean saying 'no' to lucrative monetary support from nations such as Saudi Arabia and Iran. It's doable, but difficult.
What speaks in favor of statehood? Two wards, Salam Fayyad. While earlier Palestinian leaders have been so-and-so (Arafat was a crazy, corrupt drunk, and is probably only really worth being a symbol, not a leading light to follow), the current administration has shown great promise. While Mahmoud Abbas isn't exactly perfect, he's not a bad potato, and his government, lead by Prime Minister Salam Fayyad has shown itself to be competent, free of corruption and quite democratic. Even the IDF agrees that the Fatah Security Forces under the President and Prime Minister are better at stopping terrorist attacks on Israel and settlements than the IDF itself, and that's saying a lot.
What really differs Palestinian politics and society from the last time there was a breakthrough (the Oslo accords) is that time and money has been spent on building an efficiant and functioning nation state. It's done wisely, not over night, but step by step by people who believe in what they're doing, and who know what they're doing. The Palestinian state as an entity has never been more ready than just now.
Conclusion? A rushed bid for statehood won't do much, but it will severly embarras Israel and her closest ally. Israel has stalled for a long time, and the Palestinian regime in Ramallah is tired of it.
No one is winning, but one party will stand alone, food well planted in a big dog turd. Come on Netanyahu, grow up.
What's up? For some time, negotiation between Israel and their Palestinian counterparts in Ramallah has been interrupted. The Palestinian side will not rejoin the negotiations before Israel seise settlement building on what they refer to as the "occupied West Bank", Israel believes settlements will have to resolved at the negotiation table. The beginnings of a reconciliation between Fatah and Hamas hasn't made Israel's position on this any more lenient, if anything, it's complicated the issue.
Israel on its side is seeing growing tension from neighbors and former allies. The Arab spring has left Israel's South flank naked, with Hosni Mubarak ousted from power in Egypt. Growing instability in Jordan also plays a part, especially over a rather contentius issue over the queen, Ranja, who is Palestinian. Another headache for Israel is Syria, which is poised on the brink of civil war, further risking instability. To the North, a long time friendly ally of Israel, Turkey, has reduced diplomatic relations with her - the freezing of an important pipeline deal is but one concequence of this. Relations between the once close allies has reached a level where Recep Erdogan, the Prime Minister of Turkey has called it "a moral imperative" to support statehood for the Palestinians. In Turkey's case, the catalyst is undoubtedly the contested killings of Turkish citizens on the Aid Flotilla attempting to reach Gaza last year.
It's safe to say that no one in Israel would have expected this geopolitical situation just one year ago. While the flotilla situation was a grave and made diplomatic relations between Israel and her arab neighbors, Turkey in particular, sour, a situation like this would hardly be expected.
These days, the Palestinian government in Ramallah is planning a bid for statehood at the UN. There are two options presenting themselves:
1. Apply for full recognition by the UN, as a member state
2. Apply for observing member nation status
The first option is tempting, and in the UN General Assembly, there is little doubt the Palestinian bid would win favor. Head counts indicate that 130-140 of 193 member states supports the bid. The issue with the first option is of course that a full member state status must be ratified by the UN Security Council, not just the UNGA. The US is crystal clear that they will oppose Palestinian statehood at this stage, and will therefore use their veto, other veto nations may also choose to veto the bid.
The second option is more appealing from a practical standpoint. First of all, it doesn't depend on SC ratification, and will therefore be possible to obtain. This has several obvious advantages, one of which is that the US won't have to veto it, thereby helping to keep what faith the Arab world still has with the US. Another point is that it is obtainable, but will offer some extra chips to the Palestinian government. They can for instance go to the international war tribunal and sue Israel over settlement building, something they can't do now, due to not being a member state or an observing member state. Some sources indicate that the Palestinian government will obstain from playing that card for now, keeping it for later.
-----
Opinions
-----
Anyhow, what will this mean? In the short term, it'll mean jack shit. In the long term, it might make a little difference. One point that can't be overlooked, is that the diplomatic strategy of the Netanyahu regime of stalling on negotiations to have as large a part of the occupied West Bank settled before any agreement is realized, has failed. Israel is more isolated than ever because of that strategy, and Netanyahu has met one of his greatest failiures ever. His strategy was bonkers from day one, dangerous and stupid. And it shows quite clearly now.
I don't know if I'm really in favor of statehood at this pace. On one hand, I think it's only right and proper for Israel to get a proper diplomatic spanking. Israel needs to learn that stalling won't help them in the long run, it'll hurt them. The condition that further illegal building on the West Bank be stopped before negtiations is a decent demand, and I do support that one. So Netanyahu needs this blow to the groin, more to the point, Israel needs to learn that while there are some nations that'll help her stay a spoilt child, there are great forces in the world that doesn't share that opinion.
For too long, Israel has been an obese child, and daddy America has been buying too many Happy Meals. That's not being a good dad, that's being a lousy dad.
However, I'm still not convinced. The notion that statehood will have any real concequences on the ground in Palestine without an agreement with Israel is bonkers. It won't. Israel still has the ability to reinstate the occupation of the Palestinian territories, and as long as that's a viable option, that's enough said. It won't make Palestine a state any more than it will remove the settlements. Another important point is of course that the needed agreement with Hamas is nowhere near complete, and while I think Hamas is a bunch of murderous, ignorant, stupid and religiously extreme bastards, there's no doubt they'll have to be a part of the sollution. Giving Hamas time to moderate itself will take time, possibly years. It will also mean saying 'no' to lucrative monetary support from nations such as Saudi Arabia and Iran. It's doable, but difficult.
What speaks in favor of statehood? Two wards, Salam Fayyad. While earlier Palestinian leaders have been so-and-so (Arafat was a crazy, corrupt drunk, and is probably only really worth being a symbol, not a leading light to follow), the current administration has shown great promise. While Mahmoud Abbas isn't exactly perfect, he's not a bad potato, and his government, lead by Prime Minister Salam Fayyad has shown itself to be competent, free of corruption and quite democratic. Even the IDF agrees that the Fatah Security Forces under the President and Prime Minister are better at stopping terrorist attacks on Israel and settlements than the IDF itself, and that's saying a lot.
What really differs Palestinian politics and society from the last time there was a breakthrough (the Oslo accords) is that time and money has been spent on building an efficiant and functioning nation state. It's done wisely, not over night, but step by step by people who believe in what they're doing, and who know what they're doing. The Palestinian state as an entity has never been more ready than just now.
Conclusion? A rushed bid for statehood won't do much, but it will severly embarras Israel and her closest ally. Israel has stalled for a long time, and the Palestinian regime in Ramallah is tired of it.
No one is winning, but one party will stand alone, food well planted in a big dog turd. Come on Netanyahu, grow up.
