Random Thoughts (Political Edition)

Coming up on two weeks of the missing Malaysian plane :cry:

Needless to say I'm no expert and I'm just pulling this out of my you-know-what, but here's my take:

Judging by the fact that the plane followed a specific flight path despite systems disablement, as well as the complete lack of debris or any other evidence of a crash, chances are it hasn't crashed. That leaves only the possibility of a hijacking.

It doesn't seem like it was hijacked simply to make a point: a point isn't worth making if no one knows about it. Anyone trying to make a statement with this hijacking, would have made it by now. Besides, if you're looking to kill the passengers, why wouldn't you just crash the plane?

I can't fathom why anyone would want the plane itself. This is too much trouble to go through for scrap metal and if someone's planning another 9/11, they have to realize that this plane won't get anywhere near the US, Israel, or most European nations, and I doubt that anyone wants to kamikaze into Somalia.

That leaves the theory that the hijackers wanted the passengers. But why? If they were being held hostage, I recon we'd know by now: no one holds on to hostages for extended periods without making their demands known, do they? I hate to say it, but the gruesome possibility of harvesting organs is starting to seem plausible. Keep the passengers alive and sell off body parts over time as black market demand dictates. Ambitious, gruesome, and far-fetched, but all the other theories seem to have lots of holes in them.

Then again, we don't know the whole story and the powers in charge certainly aren't divulging everything they know.

Thoughts?
 
LeVeL said:
Needless to say I'm no expert and I'm just pulling this out of my you-know-what, but here's my take:
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Far-fetched, I'd say. Many - too many - things have to go right to deliberately disappear an airliner.

Personally, I find this theory much more logical (crossposting the link to the aviation thread).
 
DanRoM said:
Personally, I find this theory much more logical (crossposting the link to the aviation thread).
Click to expand...
That story doesn't seen to add up. Per the author's suggestion, I googled Pulau Langkawi and it's not very far from where the plane lost communication. If the pilot was indeed heading there and crashed, there would be debris on land or very close to the coast. This theory also doesn't explain the plane's apparent flight out into the Indian ocean away from land.
 
LeVeL said:
That story doesn't seen to add up. Per the author's suggestion, I googled Pulau Langkawi and it's not very far from where the plane lost communication. If the pilot was indeed heading there and crashed, there would be debris on land or very close to the coast. This theory also doesn't explain the plane's apparent flight out into the Indian ocean away from land.
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The same theory suggests that smoke from a fire would have incapacitated the crew, leaving the plane to continue on it's heading well into the Indian Ocean for several hours. Even if the auto pilot wasn't on, these planes are designed to be stable and stay level without input, so it isn't far-fetched.

The main problem is that it seems, according to US and Malaysian officials, that the ACARS and transponder were turned off intentionally.
 
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LeVeL said:
Coming up on two weeks of the missing Malaysian plane :cry:

Needless to say I'm no expert and I'm just pulling this out of my you-know-what, but here's my take:

Judging by the fact that the plane followed a specific flight path despite systems disablement, as well as the complete lack of debris or any other evidence of a crash, chances are it hasn't crashed. That leaves only the possibility of a hijacking.

It doesn't seem like it was hijacked simply to make a point: a point isn't worth making if no one knows about it. Anyone trying to make a statement with this hijacking, would have made it by now. Besides, if you're looking to kill the passengers, why wouldn't you just crash the plane?

I can't fathom why anyone would want the plane itself. This is too much trouble to go through for scrap metal and if someone's planning another 9/11, they have to realize that this plane won't get anywhere near the US, Israel, or most European nations, and I doubt that anyone wants to kamikaze into Somalia.

That leaves the theory that the hijackers wanted the passengers. But why? If they were being held hostage, I recon we'd know by now: no one holds on to hostages for extended periods without making their demands known, do they? I hate to say it, but the gruesome possibility of harvesting organs is starting to seem plausible. Keep the passengers alive and sell off body parts over time as black market demand dictates. Ambitious, gruesome, and far-fetched, but all the other theories seem to have lots of holes in them.

Then again, we don't know the whole story and the powers in charge certainly aren't divulging everything they know.

Thoughts?
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If your theory was right, where would the victims' organs end up?
 
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Jimi Hendrix said:
If your theory was right, where would the victims' organs end up?
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I believe there is a market for them in countries such as Mexico and India. I wouldn't be surprised if it existed in the 'stans and throughout southeastern Asia and Africa too.
 
LeVeL said:
That leaves the theory that the hijackers wanted the passengers. But why? If they were being held hostage, I recon we'd know by now: no one holds on to hostages for extended periods without making their demands known, do they? I hate to say it, but the gruesome possibility of harvesting organs is starting to seem plausible. Keep the passengers alive and sell off body parts over time as black market demand dictates. Ambitious, gruesome, and far-fetched, but all the other theories seem to have lots of holes in them.
Click to expand...

I don't know, kidnapping an entire airliner for that purpose seems ridiculously risky and complicated. Why go to such lengths when you could just as well snatch random people off the street here and there?
 
shad_68 said:
I don't know, kidnapping an entire airliner for that purpose seems ridiculously risky and complicated. Why go to such lengths when you could just as well snatch random people off the street here and there?
Click to expand...

Exactly. Unless the kidnappers were unemployed Hollywood writers.
 
Can someone explain what is the real motivation behind EU and US sanctions against Russian political elite? The condemn the annexation of Crimea, yeah yeah... But they can not possibly, realistically expect that Putin would back off an inch on that issue.

So is this all just a show? Or is it a longer term plan to destabilize Putin's inner-circle support?
 
I think mostly it's for internal politics. Showing the citizens that they do something.
 
It's political theater. Some Russian authorities that didn't make the sanctions list asked to be placed on it so yeah, they don't give a damn. In essence, Russia annexed Crimea and the world didn't lift a finger (not that they should have necessarily).
 
LeVeL said:
It's political theater. Some Russian authorities that didn't make the sanctions list asked to be placed on it so yeah, they don't give a damn. In essence, Russia annexed Crimea and the world didn't lift a finger (not that they should have necessarily).
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I can't quite believe that US and EU officials operate out of spite on this level, or that this is purely a show for internal politics.


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The US has been global policeman for quite some time now and they're certainly not going to go to war with Russia over this - that would be WWIII. The EU and the UN, meanwhile, are not exactly known for drastic actions or strong responses, now are they? At this point the situation is far from Hitler-esque so I think world leaders should have just said "we do not approve of Russia's actions", maybe send economic and/or military aid, but that's it; all the sanctions are just laughable and completely useless.
 
Russia is already feeling the negative economical effects: foreign investors hold back their money, inflation rises, rankings are dropping. On the long run Putin has caused Russia more problems than the country can handle. Fact is, that if it wasn't for gas and oil exports, Russia would be third world.


Currently we in Germany get 40% of our gas from Russia but Norway for example currently has overcapacities, so finding alternatives shouldn't be a problem - especially now that winter is over.


So yes, Russia May have "won" the Crimea but otherwise they're bound to lose everything they achieved economically in the past 20 years. The question is, how long the Russian people will need to realize that. Currently they are drunk from patriotism but the hangover will follow soon
 
LeVeL said:
The US has been global policeman for quite some time now.
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Yep, on their own terms. The "global police"/enforcement of human rights is the US's standard excuse for enforcing their interests in the same way "protecting Russian citizens abroad" is Russia's.
 
MacGuffin said:
Currently we in Germany get 40% of our gas from Russia but Norway for example currently has overcapacities, so finding alternatives shouldn't be a problem - especially now that winter is over.
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Yes, we don't really have a use for our gas, precious few use gas for heating in Norway. So an undersea pipeline it is then...? Problem Putin?
 
MXM said:
So what is US (and EU) expecting to gain by punishing Russia right now? What are their interests?
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It's in their best interest to keep up a facade of "enforces of human rights" with as little collateral damage as possible. This "sanctions" are a toothless tiger and pretty much propaganda.
 
MXM said:
So what is US (and EU) expecting to gain by punishing Russia right now? What are their interests?
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The sanctions currently in place are basically a warning. No one expects Russia to back off Crimea at this point. These are to say "We don't approve of what you've done. If you go any further, very serious sanctions will be coming." There is a large build up of Russian forces on the Ukrainian border, and no one wants them crossing over.

Russia's economy is weak, and any strength it has relies on trading gas to Europe. If trade sanctions are placed on Russia and those exports are ended, Russia's economy is doomed. While that wouldn't be ideal for Europe, the gap could be filled elsewhere. Saudi Arabia isn't producing at capacity and the US can start exporting more and more gas and oil.
 
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