Russia and Ukraine

Dr_Grip

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Because they observe that the Russians are not doing as they say? Don't forget that Russia has already invaded and annexed Crimea.
No, of course not. I think having Crimea accepted as legitimate Russian territory might be Putin's endgame ("price for peace") currently, though.

But why do I think the US is interested in war? Because the staggering amount of intelligence leaks and semi-official statements claiming a Russian attack is imminent is definitely not helping the diplomatic processes.
So, either these releases do not serve a political purpose, meaning that the Biden/Blinken leadership have lost control of their administration and every department, every individual analyst just publish what they want.
Or these releases are planned and orchestrated to serve a political agenda. This would mean the US actually is pushing for a degree of escalation in the conflict. It would not be the first time that a western leader (and I am not only thinking about the US here, but also France's Sarkozy) under immense pressure in interior politics tries to take pressure off by literally open a second front through going to war.

Again, just some wondering regarding the story spun by officials and why they are as they are. Putin's a traditional power politics villain with an expansionist agenda, there's not a lot to interpret there (for example the The Atlantic piece you posted reads to much into a simple Agenda of expansionism I think). But the sorry band of amateurs running the show in the west currently (Biden, Johnson, Macron, Scholz) all have their own agendas and only a limited clue what they are doing.
 
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Dr_Grip

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Finland's public broadcaster YLE has an interview with an expert (in Finnish, use google translate). He by and large agrees with my assessment that it is highly unusual that the US is going public with all their intelligence on troop movements. He thinks that this put Russia at a disadvantage, though, and will play out in the west's favor.
He also agrees that Russia's endgame probably is getting their rule over Crimea accepted.
 

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Dr_Grip

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I would have loved some actual discussion instead of embedded tweets.
 

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Are we looking at what a full reshuffle with Russia completely removed from meaningful modern economic connections would be?

Acting together as a US/EU economic concern the question would be as to how much RECP could hold together...

and maybe its the pesto but the Olympics story. They are doping up a little girl to win at figure skating... I don't have a whole lotta love for them.
 
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GRtak

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Dr_Grip

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I haven't seen such objective and non-partisan reporting as in that tweet for a long time! :ROFLMAO:

On a less cynical note, I may have misunderstood why Biden selected this very open way of pushing the "Russia is that close to attacking" storyline. I assumed this would be foreign politics communications, sending a message to Russia and/or other countries.
What I completely missed is the partisan nature of US interior politics. So if we assume that Putin's price for not attacking is Crimea (if there is any, and his mind isn't set on self-destruction), then Biden will have to sell that within the US without it being spun into a Benghazi style weakness narrative by the conservative side. And if it's not "budging to Putin" but "saving the world from the brink of war" he can sell it better - and suddenly it makes sense.
 
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They already have Crimea, Russia and Putin are playing a different game.
 

Dr_Grip

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They already have Crimea, Russia and Putin are playing a different game.
Apart from some disjointed tweets, what game should that be?

The question is what they have to gain - according to most experts who actually know the territory they don't have to manpower or equipment to support a full-blown invasion, let alone occupation. And sanctions would cripple the Russian economy in no time. So what's Putins endgame here? I am really at a loss and just hope he's not going down that path of self-destruction.

EDIT: Rather than marching on Kiev and taking the whole Ukraine it looks more like Putin's repeating the Crimea playbook with the separatist Region around Donetsk - give citizenship to rebels, recognize rebels as independent territory, "liberate" them from "occupation" (by Ukraine).
 

Dr_Grip

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Double post! Crimea playbook pt. 2 just happened: Putin recognized the separatist regions. Seems like I was wrong in believing he'd be too smart to move into Ukraine.
 

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I think Putin stops short of invasion of the full country. There's too much shit to manage and get entangled with (Chernobyl). Rather Putin nips away at the border stealing sovereignty and reinforcing the idea that Ukraine was never a country in the first place.

If we don't want that to happen the question is what lead in the glove?
 

GRtak

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Apart from some disjointed tweets, what game should that be?

The question is what they have to gain - according to most experts who actually know the territory they don't have to manpower or equipment to support a full-blown invasion, let alone occupation. And sanctions would cripple the Russian economy in no time. So what's Putins endgame here? I am really at a loss and just hope he's not going down that path of self-destruction.

EDIT: Rather than marching on Kiev and taking the whole Ukraine it looks more like Putin's repeating the Crimea playbook with the separatist Region around Donetsk - give citizenship to rebels, recognize rebels as independent territory, "liberate" them from "occupation" (by Ukraine).



I don't know what the plan is, but I would guess to continue to destabilize the democracy that is next door.
 

Dr_Grip

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I don't know what the plan is, but I would guess to continue to destabilize the democracy that is next door.
If he wanted to do that he'd invest in more Facebook trolls. Look at the US and the west in general, he needs no troops for that. This is not about democracy or stability, this is about geostrategic power.
 

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I’m rather looking forward to the announcement of the probably embarrassing sanctions that the EU and US have had „ready to go“ for weeks now, but are curiously enough unable to actually make public just yet…
 

Dr_Grip

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I’m rather looking forward to the announcement of the probably embarrassing sanctions that the EU and US have had „ready to go“ for weeks now, but are curiously enough unable to actually make public just yet…
Putin got away with Crimea. He will get away with that.

Sweden and Finland probably will join NATO, which will take the EU out of any negotiations and establish a direct "superpower" line of communication between Moscow and Washington. So then he succeeded: Russia is as important as the US again, a true superpower.

And we Europeans are reduced to pawns in their game, as it was before 1990.

And why's that? Because the west is run by muppets. Biden, Macron, Johnson, Scholz.

EDIT: To make one thing clear, I am not in favor of Putin or what he's doing. But he is a capable strategist and a ruthless power politician. Maaaybe Obama would have been a match for him. And maaaybe Chirac. But apart from that, we have to go quite far back in time.
Mitterand, definitely. Clinton, I believe as well. And in the UK and Germany? I think Thatcher's the only one post Churchill who'd stand a chance, and in Germany Schmidt and maybe cold warrior Kohl, not the self-righteous fatso of the 90s.
 
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I’m rather looking forward to the announcement of the probably embarrassing sanctions that the EU and US have had „ready to go“ for weeks now, but are curiously enough unable to actually make public just yet…

Kicking them out of SWIFT would screw Germany, so would the NordStream 2 ban..........so yeah, so far, I doubt he is scared.
 

eizbaer

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Kicking them out of SWIFT would screw Germany, so would the NordStream 2 ban..........so yeah, so far, I doubt he is scared.
to be honest NS2, in my mind, has been dead for a while anyway - if it does indeed get officially canned for this, I don't think they'll care. SWIFT indeed only manages to punish the wrong people I feel, because everyone that should be targeted will have ways around it. anything worthwhile would have to go much further than this - but as the good dr. pointed out - I also think that the entire western leadership are muppets incapable of a worthwhile response. it'll probably be similarly embarassing as the 5000 helmets for ukraine... that still haven't shipped, yet (afaik).
 

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I feel like if the reaction is too hard, we might find ourselves in a war against Russia.
If the reaction is too soft, China might try a "Donbas" on Taiwan.
 
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