The Trump Presidency - how I stopped worrying and learned to love the Hair

jack_christie

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Twitter and FB block russian disinformation touted by Murdoch and Trump

Biden camp blasts Rupert Murdoch’s NY Post for ‘Russian disinformation operation’ to help Trump
https://www.rawstory.com/2020/10/bi...ssian-disinformation-operation-to-help-trump/

Giuliani and the New York Post Are Pushing Russian Disinformation. It’s a Big Test for the Media.

With its new Biden story, Murdoch’s tabloid is a useful idiot for Vladimir Putin.
https://www.motherjones.com/politic...-disinformation-its-a-big-test-for-the-media/
 

jack_christie

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jack_christie

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NecroJoe

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https://www.statnews.com/2020/10/16/trump-campaign-rallies-leave-a-trail-of-community-outbreaks/

Putting this here to not politicize the COVID thread: There's a pattern of local spikes in covid infection after Trump rallys emerging.


OK, so I know that statistics aren't often black and white and there's often a bigger picture, but here's there findings:
1602881350796.png


Does that mean that there's 7 out of 14 where it didn't happen, making is just as likely it doesn't? I KNOW there's some stupid simple "X doesn't mean Y" thing I'm missing, but I've not been sleeping well, so forgive me.
 

narf

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OK, so I know that statistics aren't often black and white and there's often a bigger picture, but here's there findings:
View attachment 3558744

Does that mean that there's 7 out of 14 where it didn't happen, making is just as likely it doesn't? I KNOW there's some stupid simple "X doesn't mean Y" thing I'm missing, but I've not been sleeping well, so forgive me.

Not quite, 7 out of 14 doesn't imply "it's a coin toss whether 'Trump Rally' causes 'Covid Outbreak'".

Simplifying, you have the overall set of all US cities, assuming they were all comparable. Out of all those cities, some experience outbreaks, so over time you can estimate what fraction of cities "organically" has an outbreak.
For a small subset of those US cities, ie the 14 where Trump held rallies, it seems we know that this fraction is 0.5.

Assuming all this were comparable in such a simplified way, it'll come down to what that organic fraction is.
If outbreaks happen frequently then there is a reasonable chance that 7 out of those 14 cities just happened to have an outbreak a few weeks after a Trump Rally.
If outbreaks happen less frequently then it's very likely that the rally causes outbreaks.



Converting to even simpler terms, how likely is it that a die is manipulated if you roll it 14 times, and get a 1 in 7 of those 14?
Well, that depends on the die :tease:
If it's a two-sided die (coin) then 7 1s don't really indicate manipulation.
If it's a d20 then 7 1s out of 14 are very unlikely unless the d20 is manipulated.
 

jack_christie

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This whole can of worms has blown up again, timing is a bit suspicious -

Watchdog org: Trump ’16 campaign, PAC illegally coordinated

https://apnews.com/article/election...ns-campaigns-42a5705b23bbbc780083f57b071bbcb0


Newly Published Cambridge Analytica Documents Show Unlawful Support for Trump in 2016
https://campaignlegal.org/update/ne...ca-documents-show-unlawful-support-trump-2016






CLC supplemental complaint re: Cambridge Analytica and Make America Number 1
https://campaignlegal.org/document/...cambridge-analytica-and-make-america-number-1

Cambridge Analytica - Brexit - Trump - data dump
https://archive.org/details/ca-docs-with-redactions-sept-23-2020-4pm/page/n12/mode/2up
 
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CraigB

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Sorry, Donald, but between you, Fauci and the experts on diseases, there is only one idiot, and he does not have any workable knowledge of anything medicine-related.

FTFY
 

Blind_Io

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Watching that unfold was fantastic, talk about shooting yourself in the foot.
 

Blind_Io

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