UFC/Strikeforce/MMA 2011

My picks for 137.

Penn/Diaz. I never thought it would happen, but Dana White figured out a way to actually make me cheer BJ Penn. Fuck Diaz, I hope he gets his ass handed to him. If Penn was smart he would go back to whatever crazy cardio guy he was working with for the Florian and Sanchez fights, that Penn was a monster.

Kongo/Mitrione. Meathead has been improving each time out, but I don't see him having the tools now or at any time in the future to get past Cup Cheick and beyond. I expect at least two nut shots before the end of the 2nd round followed by a KO late in the 3rd. If Matt does somehow beat Kongo, I think he'll still get crushed by the next mid level HW he faces, whoever it might be.

Cro Cop/Nelson. This one is a loser leaves town match although no one is calling it such. They've both dropped their last two fights (while Roy's was to much better competition vs who Mirko faced), Cro Cop is getting old, and White has made it no secret that he hates Nelson's guts for humiliating Kimbo on TUF a few years ago. I'm picking Roy here since Mirko hasn't looked good in years and I don't think another Pride style comeback (Nog/Schuab) is in the cards. If Roy loses they might might give him one more shot, but I think Dana will take any excuse he can to fire him. I expect this fight to keep standing, but a small part of me thinks Roy is going to take this to the ground and submit him.

Siver/Ceronne. I don't like Ceronne, something about him just rubs me the wrong way, or it could just be that he's dating Brittney Palmer... I never even heard of Siver till he put an end to G Spot's title run, but he's really impressed me. I think he's going to spoil Donald's win streak before having his own snapped by someone else.

Vera/Marshall. I totally forgot Vera was fighting on this card till I looked up the wiki page, my how the mighty have fallen. From main events and claiming to be the first LHW and HW champion down to facebook prelims. He knows he's fighting for his job here, and if he doesn't he's fucking stupid, so he better bring his A game or else he's getting tossed out on his ass for the second time this year. But given his history and this recent interview, he could still have his head stuck up his ass.

?There are at least three or four that can beat him (Jon Jones), Rashad, Phil Davis, myself and Machida?and Shogun. I?ve never seen Shogun lose to the same person twice?ever. He lost to Jones once, I don?t think he will lose like that again.?

Really Brandon? You really think you're one of the few people that could beat Jones? Did you forget about the elbow that crushed your face and kept you out of action for 8 months? If you were somehow able to earn the right to face him again, I think you'd be damn lucky to leave the cage with the ability to still feed yourself.
I'll just leave this here.

Saw that on Sherdog yesterday, pretty funny I thought.

137 picks:

Diaz - I like Diaz, he may not be the best but he is ballsy and I like that, also nothing would make me happier than seeing the reaction of Penn nuthuggers and their inevitable excuses if he loses.
Kongo - I like Mitrione but I feel he has been protected through his career with selective matchmaking, Kongo takes this.
Nelson - I hate to say it, but Mirko is done and I don't think he will win, please retire after this fight.
Hioki - Widely regarded as the #2 145'er out there, after this he will be in title contention.
Siver - Like PB, something about Cerrone irritates me, he is very smug and I would happy to see him brought down a notch.
Tyson Griffin - Always liked this guy, he always makes for an exciting fight, I expect a win here.
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My picks for 137

Penn-Don't like Diaz and i hope he gets his ass kicked hard.
Kongo-I see Kongo taking this by KO.Matt has been improving,but Kongo is much better than any of the guys Meathead has faced.
Cro Cop-Mirko will end this by head kick!Nah...i really want Mirko to win this,but i don't see that happening.I will root for Cro Cop.But i see Nelson taking it.
Siver-Don't like Cerrone aswell.Siver takes this by TKO.
I didn't get all my picks right, but Diaz won and that was the most important pick for me.

That was the worst beating I've seen BJ take on the feet ever. I wish I had made a sig bet on this fight, but never mind, I'm happy nonetheless.
Diaz is now getting the fight against GSP, Condit will be matched up with Koscheck by the looks of things.
I don't really care about any of the fights going down at 138, so I'm going to try something new, I'm going to just flip a coin and let it pick the winners. I've selected at random a 1967 US Quarter from my change jar for this, heads for the fighter on the left and tails for the fighter on the right, lets see what it has to say...

Chris Leben vs Mark Mu?oz - The coin says Leben.

England Brad Pickett vs Renan Bar?o - The coin says Picket.

Thiago Alves vs Papy Abedi - The coin says Abedi, but I would like to add that I half expect Alves to miss weight again.

Terry Etim vs Edward Faaloloto - The coin says Faaloloto.

Paul Taylor vs Anthony Njokuani - The coin says Taylor.
I am waiting for your usual acknowledgement of the fights and your reflection on your predictions. I think Diaz' win may have something to do with the fact you didn't do it this time. :p

I too am not too excited for UFC 138, plus it clashes with other things that are on at the same time, I'll record and watch later, so no IRC this time.
Diaz beat BJ fair and square, but I didn't see anything from him that says he could beat someone like Koshcheck or Fitch, I think even someone like Rumble Johnson would be a total nightmare for him to deal with let alone someone like GSP. At best I'd rank Diaz at #10 right now and that's being generous considering BJ's WW record going in was 3-3-1. Him and Cesar saying GSP is scared to fight him and faked the injury is laughable, and I don't buy this "GSP was so angry at the remarks" shit, if Koshcheck couldn't get under his skin after a whole TUF season stupid remarks like that from a twerp are not going to bother him.

As for BJ, he did the exact same thing he's done in his last several fights, had a great first round then his cardio gave out. BJ was good at LW when motivated, the same can't be said for his WW bouts. He lost whatever fire he had after losing to Edgar the first time and it showed, I guess he preferred to surround himself with yes men rather than with people who would actually push him, I remember in the second fight with Frankie the only thing they told BJ was "Hit the little cocksucker". I'm also not totally sold on his retirement, I think he'll be back sooner or later, the only question is if he'll keep doing what's been doing to actually change up his camp.

Mitrione/Kongo. Very very dull match. If Mitrione can't beat Kongo now, then he's never going to, he just doesn't have the skills nor does he have the time to develop them. I don't know what to do with him at this point, he's beaten most of the low end HW's and he shouldn't get a crack at someone like Hunt since he's at least on a win streak, so I'm really at a loss. The only thing I can come up with is to put him in there with Broughton or Rothwell, if anyone has a better idea I'd love to hear it.

Kongo's job as the dividing line between the top of the HW divsion and the bottom is safe and sound, but that's also a problem. The HW roster is so thin that most of the low tier guys have already fought each other, unless some new blood comes in they're going to start lapping each other. As for Kongo, make him Schaub's rebound fight and we'll see if he can hang or if he needs to join Meathead at the bottom of the pack.

Cro Cop/Nelson. I'm glad to finally see Mirko retire, and unlike with Fedor and Randy (past retirements, not the most recent one) I fully expect this one to stick. He looked like the same old UFC Cro Cop so I wasn't surprised by the outcome, you have nothing left to prove. Roy, I'm also glad to see he's made some serious changes and I hope it continues, but he knows damn well he's not getting a title shot anytime soon. And like Kongo, I have no idea what the hell to do with him, the only name that comes to mind would be Hunt. Again, if someone has a better idea...

Siver/Cerone. I didn't see this one, but I'm impressed how easily he handled and then submitted Siver. Word is that Donald is getting setup with the younger Diaz for the NYE PPV, guess who I'm picking to win that one?

I also didn't see Vera's match, but from everything I've read it was rather embarrassing despite getting the win. He's not even a gatekeeper at this point and I don't see any reason to keep him around, especially with his high price tag. No matter what, he needs to let go of this crazy idea that he's one of the few people who could topple Bones Jones.
Taylor/Njokuani has been scrapped due to injury so Diabat? vs Perosh has been bumped to the main card, as such I will make a new prediction using the same coin as before.

Cyrille Diabat? vs Anthony Perosh -The coin says Perosh.
Finding it hard to get excited about 138, which is a shame as the last few have always had at least one fight that I was really looking forward to.
So Alves missed weight again... in other news water wet.
My picks for UFC on FOX. This is a really strange card overall, save for the co-main and main event, I think this would be better suited as a Fight Night event.

Velasquez vs Dos Santos. This is a rather tough fight for me to call, if it took place 8 months ago I would have given the edge to Cain, but now I'm not so sure. I do still have lingering doubts about both fighters though.

Cain - I don't buy the claims that he has "K1 level striking", if he puts a beatdown on Overeem sometime down the line then I will concede that point. I'm also not sold on his punching power, outside of knocking out Big Nog I haven't seen anything that really says he has anything but pillow fists. I'm also curious about exactly how good his cardio is, I know they claim he has a gas tank that can go on for days and I'm not saying that it's suspect, it's just that we've never seen him head into deep waters. I want to see how he does in rounds 4 and 5 just to confirm or deny the claims.

Junior - In the past I underestimated him, but I'm not too proud to admit now that the guy is legit. He no doubt hits harder than Cain, but we've never seen much of his ground game, and we've also never seen him head into championship rounds so we don't know how well his cardio will hold up either. I also understand that he ditched Ed Soares as his manager and left Blackhouse several months ago, I don't know where or with who he's training with now, but it could have an effect on him.

I would like to see this be a 5 round war on par with Griffin/Bonnar at the very first TUF finale, but my gut says this won't go past round 3. Cain is dealing with a year long layoff along with a major surgery while Dos Santos has remained active and uninjured. Still, I think Cain's speed will be a bit too much for Junior to deal with and his wrestling will be enough to stifle any submission attempts when he puts him on his back. I say Cain by 3rd round TKO due to ground and pound.

Guida vs Henderson - This is going to be one hell of a fight, or at least it should be. My heart wants Guida to win but my head says Bendo will take it.
Cain VS JDS - JDS takes this by some form of KO, but it won't be easy by any stretch of the imagination.
Guida vs Bendo - Guida's head is on the chopping block and Bendo is swinging the axe, Guida is not elite, Melvin Guillard learned this lesson the hard way, now it is Guida's turn.
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2 for 2.

Woot, been saying JDS would do it and I am so glad he did. I was surprised at how fast it happened and JDS saying he was scared.

I feel bad for Cain, he came off a long layoff to face the best HW out there and got cracked, he looked in disbelief. I'm sure he'll get right back at it and try again, good luck to him. I like Cain, but I won't go against JDS ever, been a fan of his since his fight with Werdum.
Holy fucking shit.
That?s all I have to say.
Credit where it's due, JDS is #1, I won't dispute it. Now I want to see if he'll be able to avoid the HW title curse that has effected every single person who's ever had the belt. Everyone who's ever won it has had something come up that lead to a long layoff. Sylvia and the steroids, Mir and the bike crash, Randy and his legal troubles, Brock and his intestines, Cain and his shoulder, the list goes on and on. There is also the curse of no champion ever being able to defend their title more than twice.

Cain just looked terrible, he looked basically uninterested the entire lead up to the fight and came in the heaviest he ever has. I don't know if he was injured during his training camp or had some personal problems or what, but he just didn't seem like himself tonight. I'm not saying "Well the Cain that __________ WOULD have crushed him tonight", I'm just saying something seemed way off. Maybe this will be good for him like GSP's loss to Serra, he'll learn from his mistakes and come back stronger. Hopefully he'll have a quick turnaround and the only match I could see would be the winner of Mir/Nog II or the loser of Brock/Overeem.

Guida/Bendo was great, especially the last round. I thought Guida would show better wrestling skills but boy was I wrong, he showed phenomenal takedown defense tonight. I don't think he's going to beat Frankie, but it should be another barn burner.

I'll be back later with my 139 picks.
My picks for 139, and is it just me or is this one just kind of getting lost in the shuffle after the first Fox show?

Maur?cio Rua vs Dan Henderson. This is a tough one to call for me, even in his 40's Hendo is still a dangerous fighter for a lot of MW and LHW's out there, and he's riding high after sending Fedor out of Strikeforce flat on his face. Rua is a lot younger and far faster on the feet, but he's just been so damn inconsistent in the UFC, he has moments where he looks to be unstoppable and then follows it up by getting his ass kicked. So I think this really depends on which Shogun shows up, the one who lost his soul to Jones, or the one that smashed the fuck out of Machida. If it's the former then I'll take Henderson, if it's the latter I'll take Rua.

The coin flip says Henderson.

Wanderlei Silva vs Cung Le. I'm not sure what to make of this fight, I'm really at a loss. On one side we have Wandie who's not even a shadow of his former self and on the other we have Le who's really nothing more than a sideshow attraction. These days Silva goes out cold if anything more than a stiff breeze brushes past his face (which says a lot about Bisping's "punching power") and will be forced into retirement if/when he loses next. Le... he's only had 8 MMA fights and his last one was over a year and a half ago... Oh, and for a real mindfuck, Le is actually 4 years OLDER than The Axe Murderer. This is just a lose/lose situation here, if Silva wins he doesn't gain anything at all except for a nice way to call it a career, and if he loses it's the last we'll see of him in the UFC. If Le wins he also gains nothing except another notch on his belt and some footage to show off when he's doing interviews for his next movie.

I want Silva to win but given how easy he gets put to sleep these days, I will not be surprised if Le catches him for a KO/TKO.

Urijah Faber vs Brian Bowles. I think Faber is still a very talented fighter, but the sport has just passed him by. Bowles has had a shitty run of luck since shocking everyone and taking the title from Torres a few years ago, he also apparently has bones made of glass since he's broken a hand in every fight since then. I think Faber's speed is going to frustrate Brian, but he will eventually find an opening to land one big shot on that huge chin of his.

Bowles by KO.

Martin Kampmann vs Rick Story. I feel Kampmann was screwed over in at least one of his last two fights where the cards could have easily swung his way. He's a good fighter but he needs to make better gameplans and then stick to them. Story's hype train might have been derailed this summer, but I'm not ready to write him off just yet. I'm going to go with Story here because of the streak he had going prior to the switcharoo that was pulled on him in June, but hopefully this ends up as FOTN and Kampmann will not be tossed out on his ass.

Story by UD.

Stephan Bonnar vs Kyle Kingsbury. Uh, how in the hell did this end up on the main card? Bonnar is just a mediocre fighter who knows that so long as he doesn't get busted for child molestation, he'll always have some sort of job with the UFC.

Kyle by UD.

Ryan Bader vs Jason Brilz. Both men are fighting for their jobs here, although they might cut Bader a bit more slack since he is a TUF winner. I'm picking Bader here because of his age, but after getting subbed by Tito, I wonder if Jones took his soul as well back in Feb.

Bader by TKO.
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As soon as i saw Cain i knew it would be a short fight.
He didn't look in shape at all..
Word is Machida has packed on 20lbs of muscle for his fight with Jones, and I'm not sure why. I'm sure he and his camp know what they're doing, but to me adding on bulk doesn't seem to be the way to go for this fight, it could adversely effect his cardio and speed, and I don't think it's really going to help him deal with a guy as big as Jones. I've seen video of Anderson Silva emulated various other fighters while helping people train at Blackhouse, but I don't think even he can come up with a way to imitate Jone's massive size and reach advantage. We'll see how things develop as the fight gets closer.