Saudi Arabia: Oil Prices 'unjustified'.

Jay

the fool on the hill
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June 13 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil fell as Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said record prices are ``unjustified'' and the state oil company signaled it may soon start pumping from a new field.

The June 22 ``meeting in Jeddah will discuss the price rise, which are unjustified by fundamentals, and suggest appropriate solutions,'' al-Naimi said in a statement today. The kingdom will start pumping oil from its new 500,000 barrel-a-day Khursaniyah field within the next month, a board member of Saudi Aramco said.

``The Saudis are trying to get some of the heat out of the market and off of them at the same time,'' said Antoine Halff, head of energy research at Newedge USA LLC in New York. ``The meeting is an attempt to get beyond the blame game and find solutions to the problem of high prices.''

Crude oil for July delivery fell $1.88, or 1.4 percent, to settle at $134.86 a barrel at 2:46 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures reached a record $139.12 a barrel on June 6. Oil fell 2.7 percent this week.

Prices have moved more than $3 each day this week as the market digested Saudi announcements, falling U.S. crude-oil stockpiles, increasing price forecasts from Wall Street banks and a strengthening dollar.

``This meeting is expected, God willing, to produce positive results that will contribute to stabilizing the international oil market,'' al-Naimi said.

Saudi Arabia invited nations including the U.S., Russia, Norway, U.K., China, Germany, India and Japan to the meeting, al- Naimi said. The kingdom is the world's largest oil exporter and the most influential member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.

OPEC Gridlock

``The meeting underscores the central position the Saudis hold,'' Halff said. ``It's clear that OPEC is somewhat paralyzed and too divided to take action. The meeting is a way to bypass OPEC and end the gridlock.''

Members of OPEC, which pump more than 40 percent of the world's oil, have kept production targets unchanged at the group's past three meetings, on Dec. 5, Feb. 1 and March 5.

``There is a need for an increase in oil production, but price gains are outstripping the growth in demand,'' Russia's Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin said in Osaka, where he is attending a meeting of Group of Eight finance ministers.

``The position that more development, more investment and an increase in supply are needed is becoming universal and is something we support,'' said Kurdin.

`Sizable' Increase

Saudi Arabia is likely to propose a ``sizable'' increase in oil production at the meeting, the Middle East Economic Survey reported today, without saying where it got the information.

Current oil prices threaten the global economy and hurt the long-term interests of oil producers, Ibrahim al-Muhanna, an adviser to al-Naimi, was cited as saying by the newsletter.

Khursaniyah will start ``very, very soon, definitely within the next month,'' Khalid A. Al-Falih, who is also an executive vice president at Saudi Aramco, said in a telephone interview today. He couldn't say when full production would be reached. The field is forecast to produce as much oil as the daily output of Ecuador, OPEC's smallest member.

Oil in New York rose more than sevenfold since trading at $17.45 a barrel in November 2001, and reached 28 record highs this year. A similar pattern was seen in equities eight years ago, when Internet-related stocks sent the Nasdaq Composite Index up 640 percent to its highest level ever, according to data compiled by Bloomberg and Bespoke Investment Group LLC.

``I think that at about $80 the market crossed into the irrational exuberance level,'' said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research in Winchester, Massachusetts. ``It's hard to find a rational explanation for the gain of the last six months.''

Falling Demand

Oil demand this year will rise 1.1 million barrels to 86.88 million barrels a day, OPEC said in a report today. That's about 60,000 barrels a day lower than last month's estimate.

Global oil-market volatility, reflected in price moves of more than 2 percent in two-thirds of the trading days this month, has snarled attempts by industry players to plan for the future.

Volatility is a measure of how far the price of a commodity such as oil deviates from average closing prices over a prior period, such as 30 or 365 days. Futures traded in New York veered 41 percent from the 30-day average today, according to Bloomberg data. They strayed 41.7 percent from the average June 11, the highest volatility in 16 months.

Brent crude oil for July settlement declined $1.84, or 1.4 percent, to $134.25 a barrel on London's ICE Futures Europe exchange.

Source.

Something tells me that a handful of commodity traders are going to be in a lot of trouble, since when it comes down to it, they are the ones who determine the price.

[conspiracy theory]Remember about 5-6 months ago an oil trader, just for shits and giggles, decided to trade oil at $100 a barrel?
what if they are doing this as a big game, to see who can push it the highest; maybe there is a money wager on it?
[/conspiracy theory]
 
Jay I do not see it either. Oil is a ludicrous price. I just spent 92.00 GBP on 70+ litres, that is not sustainable in the Cobol74 household - something will have to give on the budget front, somewhere.
 
yeah i really dont know how you guys do it overseas...i certianly feel the pinch of paying $70USD instead of $40 a just 2 years ago. it really makes things difficult...but i cant imagine at all paying around 150 or more to pay for gas. It would make driving almost impossible for me as it is just way too much money that i wont have.
 
Something tells me that a handful of commodity traders are going to be in a lot of trouble, since when it comes down to it, they are the ones who determine the price.

[conspiracy theory]Remember about 5-6 months ago an oil trader, just for shits and giggles, decided to trade oil at $100 a barrel?
what if they are doing this as a big game, to see who can push it the highest; maybe there is a money wager on it?
[/conspiracy theory]

It's a more believable Consipacy Theory than the one about Moon Landings or the Death of Diana to be honest........ the oil price and commodity prices in general are being fuelled by traders and so called investors looking to make a quick buck at the expense of others.

Allow only legitimate "buy-for-using" or "buy-for-eating" trades instead of speculators and we wouldn't be in half the mess we are now.
 
Actually, one should always keep one thing in mind when considering oil prices, and just how much everyone in the world is being ripped off.

The currency for oil sales has always been US Dollars. Now, if you take into consideration the value of the US dollar compared to the Euro (or any other world currency), it'll be quite clear that the actual value of oil has not increased as much as we think (at least compared to the Euro, for example). However, gas prices at the petrol pumps go up constantly, regardless of the fallen value of the Dollar. I'm not saying there's no "real" change in Oil price if you price it in euros, but the price in dollars is not real either.

This is one of the reasons why various organizations and groups around the world have been pushing to change the default oil price currency from the dollar to something else. The dollar is just too weak and unstable at the moment.

Oil prices affect us all, and it's not just driving. The cost of food has gone up, either because transport costs have gone up, production costs have gone up, or because a substantial amount of food resources have been "re-assigned" to make biofuels. Overall the cost of living has gone up. I run my car on LPG, so compared to petrol, it's quite cheap, but even LPG has become about 35-40% more expensive in the past year.

But yes, the price of crude oil is artificial. It's not based on market demands as much as analysts would like us to believe. China and India as rising markets do have a huge thirst for oil, and that drives up prices, but the accompanying reasons we're being fed by analysts for price increases (a bird farted in northern craptakistan, as a result we're afraid that oil production might decrease, and oil is 5% more expensive today) are often just insane.

The scary thought though, is that I don't really see a change anytime soon. The world is just too unprepared to deal with the rising cost of oil, we are far too dependent on it to have a viable alternative and tell oil extractors to fuck off, and ultimately, I'll just support the conspiracy that someone out there is loving this.. "Ooh, oil went up 2% today. Order me those 2 leer jets, the my 4th fleet of Rolls Royces and let the H2 run, I like it warm in the morning."

We're all buggered..
 
Just seen Diesel at 132.8 pence (GBP) per litre - Bloody hell!

Correction 138.9 pence (GBP), WTF! Double take on the way home last night.
 
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Analysts like to talk about 'Peak oil'. This is a bell shaped production curve first published in the 1950s to depict the rise and fall of the world's oil production. What is widely being thought is that we've actually hit the peak of the production curve and can only expect it to fall from here. Discoveries of new oil fields peaked way back in 1965 and it is unlikely there are any more major oil reserves left undiscovered. While reserves are still being discovered, they're in places that are harder to reach, and more costly to begin the processes required.

That said, Saudi Arabia have announced their intentions to increase supply by 200 000 barrels a day starting from next month. So clearly, at this moment, supply is not the issue (and never will be, because there will always be oil, it just depends how much you're willing to pay for it). However, if the prices are being set by the speculators, what difference will this have?
 
Source.

Something tells me that a handful of commodity traders are going to be in a lot of trouble, since when it comes down to it, they are the ones who determine the price.

[conspiracy theory]Remember about 5-6 months ago an oil trader, just for shits and giggles, decided to trade oil at $100 a barrel?
what if they are doing this as a big game, to see who can push it the highest; maybe there is a money wager on it?
[/conspiracy theory]

Let me guess: They are driving up prices to force a rush on oil then they will sell right before the market collapses. Seeing if they can make themselves extremely wealthy while destroying everyone else. And for their wager, it would be "the usual": $1.00.

Trading Places was such a good movie. It taught me what little I know about the commodities markets :p
 
Oil prices affect us all, and it's not just driving. The cost of food has gone up, either because transport costs have gone up, production costs have gone up, or because a substantial amount of food resources have been "re-assigned" to make biofuels. Overall the cost of living has gone up. I run my car on LPG, so compared to petrol, it's quite cheap, but even LPG has become about 35-40% more expensive in the past year.

Even though I intend to work in the industry, the fact that the world is so dependent on oil does frighten me a little. Just think of anything related to transportation, and it depends directly on oil: cars, trucks, trains, planes, boats, etc. Oil's been so cheap for so long that no one's put any real effort into working out what we do when there isn't enough to go around, and if someone does say "hey, maybe we should use less fuel or develop alternative energy sources", they get called a lentil-eating lesbian.

The scary thought though, is that I don't really see a change anytime soon. The world is just too unprepared to deal with the rising cost of oil, we are far too dependent on it to have a viable alternative and tell oil extractors to fuck off, and ultimately, I'll just support the conspiracy that someone out there is loving this.. "Ooh, oil went up 2% today. Order me those 2 leer jets, the my 4th fleet of Rolls Royces and let the H2 run, I like it warm in the morning."

We're all buggered..

If you've got $100 million just laying around, you can make massive amounts of cash in a very short amount of time by playing the oil futures market. It's crazy.
 
You're right - one could make massive amounts of cash really quick by playing the oil futures market. It's not just crazy - it's scary.

However, on one hand, I'm happy that finally large corporations are looking into alternative fuels (even though the best progress is shown by a fairly small company which is supported by fairly powerful people - Tesla). This research is very good and important, because not only will it provide us with means for us to drive our cars, but it will also provide the technology for various other industries across the world.

On the other hand, I'm somewhat disappointed to realize that the research into alternative fuels was not sparked by environmental concerns, but by financial.

I don't know if anyone's checked out Mercedes-Benz's DiesOtto engine. It combines the best of the Diesel compression-ignition engine, and the petrol spark-ignition engine and a tiny electric motor to provide a low-capacity, high output engine that gets impressive mileage. The engine puts out IIRC ~250 horse and 300 lb/ft of torque. Out of a non-turbocharged 1.8 litre inline-4. And it's remarkably clean - just 127 g/km CO2.

Now, this might not be the engine of the future, but it certainly stems from out of the box thinking which will get us out this mess that we're in.
 
On the other hand, I'm somewhat disappointed to realize that the research into alternative fuels was not sparked by environmental concerns, but by financial.

Don't see why, this is perfectly normal.

People stop speeding when the ticket price shoots up to a thousand dollars/euro not because they are bothered for their safety.

I easily can hit 210kph on the highways in Malaysia because i know a "ticket" costs me only Euro10 and i'm sure it's the same in many other places, but put a thousand Euro, bugger it even a Eur50 ticket down and i'd have to have a re-think about that one myself.

The plastic bag / re-useable bag campaigns only take off when consumers are given discounts for BYOB.
 
You're right - one could make massive amounts of cash really quick by playing the oil futures market. It's not just crazy - it's scary.

However, on one hand, I'm happy that finally large corporations are looking into alternative fuels (even though the best progress is shown by a fairly small company which is supported by fairly powerful people - Tesla). This research is very good and important, because not only will it provide us with means for us to drive our cars, but it will also provide the technology for various other industries across the world.

On the other hand, I'm somewhat disappointed to realize that the research into alternative fuels was not sparked by environmental concerns, but by financial.

I don't know if anyone's checked out Mercedes-Benz's DiesOtto engine. It combines the best of the Diesel compression-ignition engine, and the petrol spark-ignition engine and a tiny electric motor to provide a low-capacity, high output engine that gets impressive mileage. The engine puts out IIRC ~250 horse and 300 lb/ft of torque. Out of a non-turbocharged 1.8 litre inline-4. And it's remarkably clean - just 127 g/km CO2.

Now, this might not be the engine of the future, but it certainly stems from out of the box thinking which will get us out this mess that we're in.

Money drives people. Why you find that dissapointing I dont know... being green is just "hip and cool". :| ... and there's people that make money off the hippies that wanna be green, as soon as that money making stops being green will stop too.
 
It's perfectly normal, and I shouldn't be disappointing because that's the reality we live in, but ultimately, it is. And yeah, being green is just hip and cool - and that's why I put more faith in frugality due to cost, instead of frugality due to environmentalism.

At any rate, we're being shafted over the cost of petrol. Watched a report on TV this morning (I think it was CNN, but I can't be sure), where oil producers clearly state that the cost of oil is due to analysts, commodity traders and futures marketers driving the price up artificially.

The CEO of some corporation was being interviewed, and when asked if the companies are earning record profits, he said yes. So yeah, between the oil companies and market players, we're the ones paying the price.

Fantastic.

Also, people of America. Stop whining about gas prices. Really. The US has a pretty high standard of living, yet you pay considerably less for fuel than the rest of the world. The average salary here is $380 US, yet a gallon of unleaded is $7.3.
 
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