Covid 19 CRISIS

[ninjacoco]

The documentary has gained a lot of traction since I wrote the post above.

I think exposing her anti-semitic opinions was the best thing that possibly could happen. It probably made quite a few question the sanity in the rest of her ideas.

It's something I've learned from years of commenting on the internet: People who are really stupid about one thing tend to be really stupid about multiple things. Glad she was outed as a truly horrific person, IMHO.

 

[narf]

Just heard the KV head complain about "4.3M doses in the fridge", demanding immediate GP vaccinations... Dude. Cherrypicking like a pro? Before this week's deliveries we were down to 2M doses in stock, which works out to just over a week at current speed, with hardly any stock held for second doses.
No point in mobilizing more doc power right now, at all. We're purely supply limited.

 

[Dr_Grip]

The US announced they will start vaccinations for the general public on May 1st.
This is within six weeks of when the EU will be able to do the same, probably even closer, if nothing goes dramatically wrong with supply.

 

[Dr_Grip]

This is worth an extra post - new research building on observations from Italy that men in treatment for prostate cancer fared much better in beating covid, while one would expect the cancer would make them fare worse.
Rushing back to the lab, they found out that a popular treatment for prostate cancer royally fucks up covid.

The pharma company behind the drug of course set up a study to test this against placebo. The trial subjects had an average WHO severity rating of 5.6, meaning they were all in need of oxigen/non-invasive ventilation.

Here's the results:

Not only did the drug reduce mortality by 92%, it also took nine days off the patient's hospital stay, cut down ventilator use on a similar scale as it reduced mortality, leading to an overall reduction in pressure on ICUs.

Of course, this is science by press release, no pre-print or peer-reviewed paper is available. Also, this is a cancer medication, so expect some hefty side effects.
But the data against covid, unlike with remdesivir or others, is super strong. So let's hope it can be replicated.

 

[Dr_Grip]

Triple post!

Not wanting to toot my own horn, but the Hans-Böckler-Stiftung, the thinktank of the German trade unions, now has published a study saying that if all vaccine suppliers deliver as promised, all Germans over 18 can be vaccinated by end of July. Taking into account only 70% vaccine uptake, this moves up to end of June.

You read it first on FinalGear, on February 26th! Literally, the only difference is that they put the amount of people immediately willing to get a shot at 53 million, not at the 49 million of my back of the envelope calculation.

 

[93Flareside]

Triple post!

Not wanting to toot my own horn, but the Hans-Böckler-Stiftung, the thinktank of the German trade unions, now has published a study saying that if all vaccine suppliers deliver as promised, all Germans over 18 can be vaccinated by end of July. Taking into account only 70% vaccine uptake, this moves up to end of June.

You read it first on FinalGear, on February 26th! Literally, the only difference is that they put the amount of people immediately willing to get a shot at 53 million, not at the 49 million of my back of the envelope calculation.

Lifting travel restrictions will be September then?

 

[Dr_Grip]

Lifting travel restrictions will be September then?

I hope a lot earlier, but in the end, this is a political decision... I have no idea how you deduct "September" from "done by July" though.

 

[gaasc]

Wiggle room because nothing ever goes to plan?

 

[93Flareside]

I hope a lot earlier, but in the end, this is a political decision... I have no idea how you deduct "September" from "done by July" though.

Well, I assume there will be a bunch of faffing about and it will be extended because of politics.

 

[Dr_Grip]

Wiggle room because nothing ever goes to plan?

Wiggle room will be needed, but that much?

Well, I assume there will be a bunch of faffing about and it will be extended because of politics.

There is no political gain in extending/upholding travel bans because they cost jobs and economic growth.

 

[93Flareside]

Wiggle room will be needed, but that much?

Between North American the EU? I can see it happening. inter-country within the same continents would I see it opening up earlier.

I want to be surprised with restrictions lifting earlier.

 

[Momentum57]

So I know a couple of pediatric nurses who have gone to Hawaii during the pandemic (testing and distancing) and now are going to Vegas since they have been vaccinated. They are going to spread infection whether its covid or not. I don't blame them ticket prices are cheep and their risk profile is different. However; if everyone who gets vaccinated immediately runs out to travel it becomes a race to see if you can beat down the non vaccinated faster especially in travel towns. Im looking forward to seeing the national vaccine page go up and yeah we have travel plans.

 

[93Flareside]

What's the stance on the idea of adding a vaccinated note to your passport or other ID-card? I was watching a piece on it from DW news which sounds like it would be a nightmare to implement to be honest.

 

[Dr_Grip]

I don't get the part about "beat down the non vaccinated faster especially in travel towns" - we have ample data that vaccinated people do not spread covid to any relevant degree...

What's the stance on the idea of adding a vaccinated note to your passport or other ID-card? I was watching a piece on it from DW news which sounds like it would be a nightmare to implement to be honest.

The EU-wide electronic vaccination document will come. Several prime EU holiday destinations and one major package holiday chain have already announced a ban on non-vaccinated people. So consider vaccination to be key for freedom of (cross-country) movement from now on.

 

[DanRoM]

all vaccine suppliers deliver as promised

SZ says AZ "might" only deliver less than half of what they promised the EU in Q2, though. I do hope it's the usual panic reporting...

 

[Momentum57]

I don't get the part about "beat down the non vaccinated faster especially in travel towns" - we have ample data that vaccinated people do not spread covid to any relevant degree...

We’re still learning how vaccines will affect the spread of COVID-19. However; what I have seen is a general loosening of peoples protective behavior who haven't gotten vaccinated, because more people are getting vaccinated. In that way the influx of travelers brings a sense of false security and confidence that they too could join in the relaxed atmosphere.

 

[Dr_Grip]

SZ says AZ "might" only deliver less than half of what they promised the EU in Q2, though. I do hope it's the usual panic reporting...

We will see. AZ is supposed to provide enough vaccine for 9 mio people/12% of the over 18 German populace in Q2. Losing half of this would be quite a setback - but one we could compensate with BioNTech in July/August. We have to keep in mind that eventhough AZ still is super important for overall speed, our H1/21 schedule has more than twice the amount of BioNTech than it has AZ in it.

EDIT: Additionally, J&J seem to have re-configured their delivery pipeline to be able to circumvent Trump's vaccine export ban and keep up their delivery commitments for Q2. This amounts to more people vaccinated than AZ, so I'll rather take a full delivery from J&J and an AZ washout.

EDIT2: Also, in a display of transatlantic friendship by the Biden government, the US is even banning AZ from exporting vaccine for which the US not even have a timeline for approval set. But they rather keep it than help their partners in the EU.

EDIT3: Also, the tonality of the article is panic reporting at it's worst: "The problems in the EU vaccination campaign are worsening..." We will hit 10% of the EU populace vaccinated within March, and this without cheating like the Brits. Even without any AZ doses, we will be done with the vaccination campaign within Q3 - the Brits want to be done by end of July, we'll probably hit the same window, give or take a few weeks.

 

[jack_christie]

Probably after US don't need anymore:

U.S. to Partner with Japan, India and Australia on Global Vaccine Production Capacity​

Covid-19 Live Updates: U.S. to Partner with Japan, India and Australia on Global Vaccine Production Capacity

Hungary’s vaccine contracts reveal price differences. Meet China’s version of Dr. Fauci.

www.nytimes.com

 

[narf]

Triple post!

Not wanting to toot my own horn, but the Hans-Böckler-Stiftung, the thinktank of the German trade unions, now has published a study saying that if all vaccine suppliers deliver as promised, all Germans over 18 can be vaccinated by end of July. Taking into account only 70% vaccine uptake, this moves up to end of June.

You read it first on FinalGear, on February 26th! Literally, the only difference is that they put the amount of people immediately willing to get a shot at 53 million, not at the 49 million of my back of the envelope calculation.

I believe they forgot about the required delay between first and second doses.
Take AZ as the most extreme example, someone getting their second dose near the end of June would have needed their first dose near the end of Q1. As a result, the number of fully vaccinated people by the end of Q2 for AZ is at best roughly the same number as the number of AZ doses that are available in Q1. With AZ ramping up deliveries significantly each quarter this effect should be huge when looking at the fully vaccinated people by the end of Q2, similar but less extreme with Moderna: They too are ramping up late, but iirc need less time between the doses.

Still, we are definitely on a plausible path to get everyone who wants one their first dose by the end of Q2.

 

[Dr_Grip]

Point taken, a 12-week wait between doses is some time. I might get my first dose before leaving for Finland and the second when I return for Ringmeet...