Covid 19 CRISIS

narf said:
...three weeks later, time to update the predictions ? tl;dr: back then I said 33.5M first doses by the end of May.

Current numbers? 17M BnT, 6M AZ, 1.5M Moderna first shots, so 24.5M in total. I'll ignore J&J entirely because it's still too low volume to be relevant, under half a million in total delivered by end of May.

AZ we'll need to administer about 1M 2nd doses by end of May, we're getting about 2M doses delivered, so maybe 1M first doses to add there :yawn:
BnT needs about 7M 2nd doses by end of May, we're getting about 14M doses delivered, so maybe 7M more first doses.
Moderna, needs about 600k 2nd doses, deliveries are 2.2M, so maybe 1.6M more first doses.

Sum it all up, 34.1M first doses by end of May... hardly any change compared to the previous forecast, but made with more and better data - not only is it closer to end of May, but we now have splits into first and second doses by manufacturer in the raw data.
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Another two weeks gone, time for an update ?

Prediction five weeks ago: 33.5M, two weeks ago: 34.1M - currently we're at 32.7M, with ten days to go.
The 2nd shot fraction has now climbed beyond 50%, this was expected to happen with the post-Easter boost in first mRNA shots now returning for seconds... so, we can expect maybe 2-3M more first doses until the end of May, raising the prediction slightly to maybe 35M.
A small fraction of the difference is me ignoring J&J, a bigger fraction is me only going with the confirmed AZ deliveries as of back then - reality appears to have delivered more.

PS: New kind of prediction, we'll hit 10Hz by June 10th.
 
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Perc said:
I'm still 39 and for the first and probably only time ever, this sucks.
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Don't worry, it'll be over sooner than you think. :p ;)

@gaasc: Fingers crossed, man. What you write always puts the European and North American side of things in perspective...
 

I would expect this to be lifted (at least partially) when more data on the AZ vaccine’s effectiveness against the “Indian variant” B.1.617 is in… well hope for it, anyway.
 
calvinhobbes said:

I would expect this to be lifted (at least partially) when more data on the AZ vaccine’s effectiveness against the “Indian variant” B.1.617 is in… well hope for it, anyway.
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Pfizer: 88% for India variant, 93% against Kent strain
AZ: 60% for India variant, 66% against Kent strain

www.theguardian.com

Pfizer and AstraZeneca ‘highly effective’ against India Covid variant

A Public Health England study has revealed the vaccines can be up to 88% effective after a second dose
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
 
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Ministers ‘failed to act on Bedford Covid variant surge for two weeks’​

Focus was put on Bolton so government could say it was still safe to ease lockdown, it is claimed
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www.theguardian.com

Ministers ‘failed to act on Bedford Covid variant surge for two weeks’

Focus was put on Bolton so government could say it was still safe to ease lockdown, it is claimed
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com



Astonishing seeing a @PHE_uk scientist claim that lower AZ efficacy against B117 presented in the PHE report yesterday (contrasting with previous higher claims) is down to dosing being 4 wks rather than 12 wks apart, when this dosing regimen hasn't been used in the Uk at all!
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@jack_christie Can you please provide some context in your post when linking alarmist tweets and Guardian opinion pieces without? I spent half an hour now trying to understand what your c&ps even are about...
 
Dr_Grip said:
@jack_christie Can you please provide some context in your post when linking alarmist tweets and Guardian opinion pieces without? I spent half an hour now trying to understand what your c&ps even are about...
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Sorry the 10.30pm bad news data dump was after most went to print, so story is across loads of tweets. I picked a few respected ones.

Simply, Govt hiding data, so they can continue opening up.

India variant ~50% of all cases in England.

Schools worse that they reported.

AZ efficacy worse than they made out. Dosing interval now looks too long. Too many with only one shot, 33% effective, which isn't good enough for variants. 44% have no shots.
 
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OK, let's take a deep breath here. I am not an epidomologist and will not go through all these tweets. I am simply not qualified to interpret how much of what these people post is real, what is alarmism, what is overinterpretion. For example, I can't really find the "smoking gun" for "50% of all cases".
What I from my limited capacity can say is that Deepti Gurdasani is clearly overstating her case with her "vaccines won't work"/"clear immune escape" shouts. All real-world data coming in shows almost no drop in efficacy after both doses, so now running around and screaming "vaccines are broken" clearly puts her in the "less believable" camp.

Impact of the variant on vaccine efficacy is smaller than for the South African variant and real-world impact is lower than in lab data, as seen before for other variants.

Let's look at dosing as well:
jack_christie said:
AZ efficacy worse than they made out. Dosing interval now looks too long. Too many with only one shot, 33% effective, which isn't good enough for variants. 44% have no shots.
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AZ efficacy is at 60+% after two shots. This is a fact, independent of how many people got two shots.
Of course with more variants the question is whether to emphasize short-term gain (quicker protection against variant) vs. long-term gain (higher overall efficacy). This is my main problem with science/policy by tweet, it's a hard and complicated decision on how and if to change the dosing interval, and just saying "33% is not enough, interval's too long" is oversimplifying things. Also, the rate of people being vaccinated has nothing to do with "efficacy being overstated".

That being said, the Indian variant will fuck us up badly for the weeks until a significant portion of the populace is vaccinated - in Israel, with 60+% fully vaccinated, it does not pose a problem.

Also of course there is a lot of reason not to trust the Johnson administration.
 
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DanRoM said:
@gaasc: Fingers crossed, man. What you write always puts the European and North American side of things in perspective...
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Thank you and @CraigB. I cannot expect to be as thorough and Germanic in coverage as @Dr_Grip , who I will not waste an opportunity to thank publicly for bringing sensible and thorough coverage in a sea of alarmist and politicized bullshit, but I can at least bring some perspective on my country, which is ill-prepared to handle a pandemic from a cultural, political (local and global), and social perspective.

Good news though. Thanks to some very generous familial contacts, there is another way in which the old folks could get a vaccine. One that my mother would gladly accept as she was in military service for about 15 years. I shall gladly omit to tell her that the armed forces are part of the state if it means she gets vaccinated.

We have received an additional 86,400 doses of AZ this weekend. And in a demonstration of the power of unions, the members of the journalist's guild (I am told that is the closest translation of spanish "Gremio") were vaccinated yesterday. We seem to be burning through our Sputnik V's first though, which is good because it seems those are going to be just fine to make all covid variants "just a flu". Very useful for us. Flus we can handle.

The bad news is, of course, this month is now the worst of the pandemic in this country, with 900+ dead so far (at a guess. it was a record breaking 875 at a count on friday, ICU's are still at 100% and with a waiting list.) People continue about their business as usual. They will don masks to enter a building, but will sit inside the car on the way there with masks off. We are not queuers so anything that has a line to enter has a glut of people pushing and prodding and generally making a mess in the front of it. With no further restrictions of any kind and law enforcement unwilling and unable to enforce any sort of mask directive, it's a feeding frenzy for COVID. We may actually reach herd immunity, with the requisite thousands killed in the process.
 
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Got my first jab yesterday, but the 2nd is not due until 9/8, so I really dont the boomer politicians make it possible to travel this summer even if you've just had one...
 
136,000 people vaccinated.
 
gaasc said:
136,000 people vaccinated.
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*looks up population of Honduras*

Damn, about 1.35%. And I assume you mean first vaccinations. That's what the Covid monitor on German news website "Die ZEIT" says, anyway.
It also says your 7-day rolling case figure is at 60 cases per 100,000 inhabitants. Are we to assume that's due to massive underreporting? Because that number is better than most of Europe, including Germany.
 
DanRoM said:
*looks up population of Honduras*

Damn, about 1.35%. And I assume you mean first vaccinations. That's what the Covid monitor on German news website "Die ZEIT" says, anyway.
It also says your 7-day rolling case figure is at 60 cases per 100,000 inhabitants. Are we to assume that's due to massive underreporting? Because that number is better than most of Europe, including Germany.
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Lab tests per capita are 10x here than they are in Honduras, not counting rapid tests... and Germany is in the lower third of EU countries in that metric... so, if you assume great test numbers = accurate reporting then yeah, Honduras' numbers are severely underreported.
 
Also, 60 per 100,000 doesn't seem accurate for cases even in local media. Deaths, on the other hand...

Let's look at that shittily cropped chart from last page and take a lazy approach and a calculator to it.


1621891109280.png


Red is cases. Averaging the visible ones gives me 2090 cases per 100k (rounded up from 2089.94). The same for Casualties gives me 53 (rounded up from 52.7) per 100k, which is way more in line with Die ZEIT.

Here's a more thorough breakdown of the vaccinations so far in answer to your first question. Out total doses are 473,600, of which 163,858 administered. 136,476 people have received a single dose, while 27,585 have received 2. There's no data splitting the people who received a single dose Sputnik vs. a Double doze AZ or other.

Screenshot 2021-05-24 151309.jpg


2.4% of the population has received at least one dose while 0.5% are "fully vaccinated" (definition unclear as to whether it means with a single dose or just "received two doses". Will they give people a second dose of Sputnik I'm not sure. I guess its effects would be minimal apart from the waste if that's the case.) Should data trends prevail, full vaccination of the Honduran people with a single dose will take 25 months, with 35 with dual doses.

1621891050868.png


These charts are composed by the local "El Heraldo" using publicly available data. My own research trawndling through other media, state's twitter account and whatever few contacts I still have left at university implies that the numbers are not that far off the mark...so far.
 
My bad. Sorry

Taking data from the state's twitter account and dividing and doing the math with the Honduran population (est. 9,430,666: source) gives me a total of 63.12 per 100k. We did 21,717 COVID tests for this period, which is 230.28 per 100k.
 
gaasc said:
My bad. Sorry

Taking data from the state's twitter account and dividing and doing the math with the Honduran population (est. 9,430,666: source) gives me a total of 63.12 per 100k. We did 21,717 COVID tests for this period, which is 230.28 per 100k.
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:nod: Germany has 8.5x the population, but does roughly 50x PCR tests plus easily another 10x over that in rapid tests per week... so yeah, Honduras' numbers are much more underreported.
 
*Visible annoyance.*
 
A very good article in Nature on the Indian Variants is giving the more believable people in @jack_christie 's twitter bubble a voice and putting it into context.

Key talking points:
  • Indian variant now 50% in UK is a "lineage replacement", i.e. the amount is not due to pure speed, but mostly due to outcompeting the Brisith one
  • No genetic markers associated with more severe disease in any of the Indian variants
  • No sign of significant real-world vaccine escape (as reported above, -6% efficacy against PCR-confirmed infection). This translates to a 1.4% higher chance for a fully vaccinated person to be infected with the Indian variant compared to the British one.
  • How much more transmissible than the the British variant it is will decide on how much it can fuck the UK (and if we are unlucky the EU) over on our way to vaccinating people - 20% more transmissible may be "meh", 50% more may cause another wave before we can vaccinate us out of the corner.
  • The downer is a quote from Christine Pagel once again raising the "army of asymptomatic vaccinated spreaders" boogeyman. As data from Quatar strongly denies the possibility of PCR-negative spreaders I hope more data coming in will put that down for good soon.
 
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