Dr_Grip
Made from concentrate
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- Jul 8, 2008
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Finland has tightened some covid restrictions, basically shutting off evening hospitality (bars/restaurants) as well as any kind of non-seated events. While mildly annoying, this sadly makes sense since there's still a lot unknown about Omicron. Stat is currently running two pieces, one an interview with Trevor Bedford (who I massively respect and have experienced as very level-headed) and one an op-ed by the team that did the groundbreaking work on the case rate to death rate relation in Covid. Bedford says he does not know how worried we should be ("between 3 and 8 out of 10, with Delta being a 6") but foresees a future of 100K US deaths from endemic covid each winter. On the other hand, the death rate researchers say the relation between cases and deaths seen in all other waves is broken with Omicron and unless some dramatic wave of death hits much later than in earlier waves, the current panic is unjustified.
So, with "twice the death of a flu season" to "it's nothing" being the range of possible outcomes according to serious scientists, I am fine with my government erring on the side of caution, and reacting early instead of doing nothing and then locking people down in their homes suddenly. In three weeks we will know more and if we until then see it's not that bad, then it's a New Year's eve ruined but no real harm done.
Bedford makes a bunch of super interesting minor points as well. For example, he thinks London's Imperial College's Omicron severity analysis concluding that Omicron is as bad as Delta is unbalanced by being too precise: It compares severity in unvaccinated, recovered, vaccinated, boostered, etc 1:1, which excludes the real-world fact that the vast majority of Omicron infections will be in people with vaccination or prior infection. He also wonders why there is the steep decline of Omicron cases we start seeing in South Africa (yesterday's case count is half of the peak) after not even two months, suspecting that there are even more super mild/asymptomatic cases that aren't caught.
So, with "twice the death of a flu season" to "it's nothing" being the range of possible outcomes according to serious scientists, I am fine with my government erring on the side of caution, and reacting early instead of doing nothing and then locking people down in their homes suddenly. In three weeks we will know more and if we until then see it's not that bad, then it's a New Year's eve ruined but no real harm done.
Bedford makes a bunch of super interesting minor points as well. For example, he thinks London's Imperial College's Omicron severity analysis concluding that Omicron is as bad as Delta is unbalanced by being too precise: It compares severity in unvaccinated, recovered, vaccinated, boostered, etc 1:1, which excludes the real-world fact that the vast majority of Omicron infections will be in people with vaccination or prior infection. He also wonders why there is the steep decline of Omicron cases we start seeing in South Africa (yesterday's case count is half of the peak) after not even two months, suspecting that there are even more super mild/asymptomatic cases that aren't caught.
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