Covid 19 CRISIS

ahpadt

Forum Addict
Joined
May 7, 2006
Messages
9,890
Location
London
It's going to get slow here, as it's starting to get more and more likely that our government will chicken out on both the AZ and the J&J vaccine over the super rare side effects. :rolleyes: Translation: The summer just got ruined for everyone who hoped it would be better this year... :censored:
The FHI mgmt (yes, you curly woman) should go to prison for intentionally slowing down the return to normality by taking vaccines away. These fucking boomers have ruined enough of our lives already.
 

Dr_Grip

Made from concentrate
Joined
Jul 8, 2008
Messages
14,578
Location
HEL
Car(s)
1979 Opel Kadett | 1972 Ford Country Sedan
The 65+ are reluctant to schedule jabs here now because Astra Zeneca.
Is this an actual problem or a media story? So far, apart from some anecdotal cases (sadly, including my mom) we don't have a statistically significant AZ uptake problem, on the contrary, Berlin had to extend the timeframe for immediate 60+ vaccination with AZ twice due to overwhelming demand...
 
Last edited:

jack_christie

Forum Addict
Joined
Aug 1, 2006
Messages
6,293

NSW woman's fatal blood clotting likely linked to AstraZeneca COVID vaccine, Therapeutic Goods Administration says​




India Covid variant found in UK specimens taken in February​

Researchers worry that ‘variant under investigation’ contains mutations that could help it evade immune response


Ireland

National Immunisation Advisory Committee (NIAC) issues revised advice on the use of the AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine​

12 April, 2021

Recommendations


  • Any authorised COVID-19 vaccine, including Vaxzevria COVID-19 vaccine AstraZeneca, is recommended for those aged 60 years and older including those with medical conditions with very high or high risk of severe COVID-19 disease.
  • Vaxzevria COVID-19 vaccine AstraZeneca is not recommended for those aged under 60 years including those with medical conditions with very high or high risk of severe COVID-19 disease.
  • A second dose of Vaxzevria COVID-19 vaccine AstraZeneca should not be given to anyone who developed unusual blood clots with low platelets after the first dose.
  • Advice for those who have received a first dose of Vaxzevria COVID-19 vaccine AstraZeneca is:
    • Those aged 60 and older should receive their second dose 12 weeks later as scheduled.
    • Those aged under 60 years with a very high risk or high-risk medical condition should receive their second dose 12 weeks later as scheduled.
    • Those aged under 60 years without a very high risk or high-risk medical condition should have the scheduled interval between doses extended to 16 weeks to allow further assessment of the benefits and risks as more evidence becomes available.

 

gaasc

Desperately looking for a title
DONOR
Joined
Apr 26, 2008
Messages
9,215
Location
Honduras
Car(s)
3 of them
In response to the stagnant vaccination process, local crazy people have gone on media to say that everyone should drink Chlorine dioxide (CL02). It's great for COVID, they say.

I am as appalled with them as with the people who gave them time on air.

EDIT: In the interests of fairness and impartiality, I have to report we now have 6,000 additional Sputnik V vaccines on the country. The total vaccine count in Honduras is now 59,000, or enough for about 0.30% of the population assuming they get both doses.
 
Last edited:

Dr_Grip

Made from concentrate
Joined
Jul 8, 2008
Messages
14,578
Location
HEL
Car(s)
1979 Opel Kadett | 1972 Ford Country Sedan
In the two weeks since easter, Germany provided first shots to 6% of the populace, bringing the total so far up to 20% (19,8% to be precise). With another step of ramp-up planned for the last week of the month, a 27-28% vaccination rate by May 1st is within reach - 28% matching the set goal of "vaccinate as many people in April as we did in Q1".

Several other forecasters now agree with @narf that 50% vaccinated by end of May seem plausible, among them half-mad from fear but often correct Social Democrat public health expert Karl Lauterbach. One forecast @DanRoM linked even puts a date to "everyone who wants/75% of adults in Germany (62% of the general populace)" got a first shot: 18.6.*. Note that this is two weeks earlier than my back of the envelope calculation upthread. We are getting there. Maybe not at Warp Speed, but at 3/4 Impulse.

*When asked for a wager, he put 50€ behind "75% of adults vaccinated once by June 25th", adding a week for buffer.
 
Last edited:

Dr_Grip

Made from concentrate
Joined
Jul 8, 2008
Messages
14,578
Location
HEL
Car(s)
1979 Opel Kadett | 1972 Ford Country Sedan

narf

Sgt. Maj. Buzzkill
Joined
Feb 1, 2008
Messages
18,650
Location
Kiel/Wherever, Germany
Car(s)
'19 BMW M240i
According to a badly-written liveticker blurb this morning, supply to GPs for CW17 (next week) has been upped to 2M.
Look here instead https://www.bundesgesundheitsministerium.de/coronavirus/faq-covid-19-impfung.html [appears to be updating right now, usuall they have a bunch of PDFs in the box at the top]

I think that upping was there a few days ago, yeah - I did a quick cross-check with my earlier long-form prediction and found no siginificant overall deviation. Rough numbers were "way more from BnT, way less from AZ, exactly on plan from Moderna" - so pretty much what we knew already.
 

Dr_Grip

Made from concentrate
Joined
Jul 8, 2008
Messages
14,578
Location
HEL
Car(s)
1979 Opel Kadett | 1972 Ford Country Sedan

jack_christie

Forum Addict
Joined
Aug 1, 2006
Messages
6,293
NYC: Joints for Jabs
 

calvinhobbes

Forum Addict
DONOR
Joined
Jul 12, 2010
Messages
6,827
Location
near Cologne

gaasc

Desperately looking for a title
DONOR
Joined
Apr 26, 2008
Messages
9,215
Location
Honduras
Car(s)
3 of them
Doctors from triage centers have been forced by law to stop reporting on the case on their triage centers to the media. Instead, a single spokesperson from the heath department will release statements, facts and figures as required.

I am sure this is great and not at all done with hidden purpose. Also, I am ready for the sudden and inexplicable drop in cases.
 
Last edited:

NecroJoe

Stool Chef
Joined
Apr 12, 2005
Messages
20,357
Location
San Francisco area, CA, USA
Car(s)
2015 Mazda 3 S GT, 2015 VW e-Golf
Holy shit, I hadn't been following what's ben going on in India until now. I had thought their numbers were suspiciously low, but assumed it was just that they weren't reporting cases...but now they are reporting the single highest number of cases in a single day of any country since the pandemic started...but then it got me looking to Brazil and...jesus...Brazil has 80% of India's cases, but double the deaths.:oops:
 

gaasc

Desperately looking for a title
DONOR
Joined
Apr 26, 2008
Messages
9,215
Location
Honduras
Car(s)
3 of them
Please do keep in mind that Brazil's statistics are also possibly underreported due to political mismanagement.

EDIT: For those of you not following the news, India has just reported 315,000 infections on a single day

 

Dr_Grip

Made from concentrate
Joined
Jul 8, 2008
Messages
14,578
Location
HEL
Car(s)
1979 Opel Kadett | 1972 Ford Country Sedan
India is in a shit state, yep. On the one hand. On the other, given that they got "only" 1/3rd more cases than top US, but almost four times the populace, nothing too shocking here. The second/third wave hitting a lot more brutal than the first thanks to the usual mutations. It's a tragedy but not one that is puzzling, sadly.
 

narf

Sgt. Maj. Buzzkill
Joined
Feb 1, 2008
Messages
18,650
Location
Kiel/Wherever, Germany
Car(s)
'19 BMW M240i
We have another data dimension :mouse:

1619208925378.png


DIM = Digitales Impfquotenmonitoring, that's all vaccination centres and mobile teams
KBV = Kassenärztliche Bundesvereinigung, that's all GPs

Numbers are floating seven-day dose counts. In short, the GPs are doing about a third of the current vaccinations... very much in line with deliveries, duh :)
You can see the blue AZ dip in March and the Easter dip in April very clearly.
 

calvinhobbes

Forum Addict
DONOR
Joined
Jul 12, 2010
Messages
6,827
Location
near Cologne

The key points are:

An outbreak in a Kentucky nursing home and routine screening of nursing home residents and staff in Chicago both confirm the effectiveness of vaccination within the known limits. I.e.: outbreaks can still happen, vaccinated people can still catch the coronavirus, but almost none of them will get severe COVID.

Protective measures remain essential until vaccination rates among staff and residents are high enough to stop the spread of the virus. Opening up earlier than that exposes all, including the vaccinated, to unnecessary risks.
 

Dr_Grip

Made from concentrate
Joined
Jul 8, 2008
Messages
14,578
Location
HEL
Car(s)
1979 Opel Kadett | 1972 Ford Country Sedan
We have another data dimension :mouse:

View attachment 3560872

DIM = Digitales Impfquotenmonitoring, that's all vaccination centres and mobile teams
KBV = Kassenärztliche Bundesvereinigung, that's all GPs

Numbers are floating seven-day dose counts. In short, the GPs are doing about a third of the current vaccinations... very much in line with deliveries, duh :)
You can see the blue AZ dip in March and the Easter dip in April very clearly.
What I wonder is why both lines tick downwards slightly last week. Combined with anecdotal evidence of several people getting appointments for the next day in my wider social circle, it may or may not be a sign of us running out of vaccinees in Group 2.
 
Top