Covid 19 CRISIS

Dr_Grip

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Meanwhile, German media still paints scenarios of a collapsing vaccination campaign.

I ran some real-world numbers (and if I made a mistake, @narf surely will point it out). We are getting there. Slowly, probably a month or two behind UK/US, but we are getting there:
  • As of Friday night 7,2 Mio/8,7% of the German populace have been vaccinated.
  • That's more than 10% of those eligible (which is the number we should be reporting first place - but I will work from population percentage below anyways)
  • Currently (before the AZ stoppage) we run at 900K/1,1% first shots per week
  • So we can assume we will end March at 10-11% of the populace vaccinated.

  • Premise 1: 50% of all vaccines available go to first shots. That's pessimistic twice since it neither accounts for the 12-week AstraZeneca window nor the J&J vaccine only needing one shot. But it makes the math easier.
  • Premise 2: Infrastructure scale-up both in vaccination hubs and GP practices will work as planned
  • Premise 3: The pessimism in Premise 1 will compensate for missed AZ deliveries
  • Premise 4: For the sake of simplicity, we assume a similar vaccine uptake and distribution speed nationwide.

  1. The plan for April assumes 2,25 Mio doses per week in the vaccination hubs. Here, we'll be able to give first shots to roughly 5 Mio/6% of the populace.
  2. GPs will join with 1 Mio shots in the first week of April, ramping up to 3.2 Mio in the last. Let's assume they'll provide first shots to another 4 Mio/5% of the populace.
  3. This means in April alone we will vaccinate as many people as in all of Q1. We will end the month between 20% and 25% of the populace vaccinated.
  4. The last week of April will see 2.7 mio first shots. Scaled to a month that's a good 12 Mio, so 15% of the populace.
  5. If we only are able to keep this pace, without scaling up more (again, a pessimistic assumption) we will have reached between 50 and 55% of the populace vacinated by end of June, that's around 45 million people.
  6. This means during July we will reach the approx. 50Mio/70% eligible for a shot that are waiting for one. From then onwards, the game changes to convincing those unsure or sceptic.
As mentioned in Premise 2, the supply side is the huge question mark here - while we are expecting enough doses for 53 Mio people until the end of Q2, no one knows whether especially AZ and Moderna will keep up with their contractual obligations. But as you can see, my reasonable worst case above already accounts for 8mio less.
But as a more positive spanner thrown into this timeline, maybe we will see a BioNTech approval for kids over 12 before summer - that would of course add another 10 million eligible persons to the line, pushing us back two weeks or so.
A month and a bit later, time to take stock. As usual, numbers are for Germany, but percentages should more or less match all EU countries on a six-week dosing schedule that did not refuse certain vaccines (be it BioNTech because of the price, AZ because of the blood clodding, or both).
  • We ended April at 27,5% of all Germans having gotten a first shot.
  • This means within a month we delivered first shots to 13 million people (15% of the populace), compared to 9 mio people in all of Q1.
  • Priority groups are reaching "normal people" by now - not only myself, but almost a dozen members of FG Germany already got a shot or have one lined up for the next days
  • By end of May, we should have reached 42-ish percent of the populace - that's half of those over 18.
  • The 50 Million people/70% over 18 will probably be reached by mid-June, a month earlier than predicted.
  • This puts us five weeks behind the US with a similar trajectory, and three months behind the UK, who since a month now are stuck in second shot hell (only 5% of the UK's population added to the first shot tally in April - we caught up 10%) so we'll catch up a lot within the next month. After all the screaming and complaints earlier, the EU, UK, and US will probably reach the point of relative normalcy though vaccination within six weeks of each other.

  • As a "bad news that are actually good", so far it looks like vaccine uptake is a lot higher than those 70% predicted by polls, in the 80+% ballpark. So even though we are remarkably quicker than predicted earlier, it still will be July until all that want a shot get one.
  • And that does not even touch on the questions where in the vaccination order kids between 12 and 18 will be dropped once the EMA approves the BioNTech vaccine for them...
  • In any case, looking at the data from Israel, sometime during the second half of June or earlier we should see covid caseload in the EU hit a downward spiral.
 
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gaasc

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In response to the stagnant vaccination process, local crazy people have gone on media to say that everyone should drink Chlorine dioxide (CL02). It's great for COVID, they say.

I am as appalled with them as with the people who gave them time on air.

EDIT: In the interests of fairness and impartiality, I have to report we now have 6,000 additional Sputnik V vaccines on the country. The total vaccine count in Honduras is now 59,000, or enough for about 0.30% of the population assuming they get both doses.
No changes since this.
 

loose_unit

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Dr_Grip

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Was zum fick.


Seems a bit weird, by then I would expect most places to be fine. :/
If you read the statement carefully, this is not about staging a beer fest in Munich, but about international travel. Oktoberfest at it's current size needs influx of tourists from Asia and the US to be viable.
And since planning has to start now, they can't scale the event to the travel situation by September - either they end up with half empty beer halls and go bankrupt, or they end up so overcrowded it's outright dangerous.

I think a smaller scale beer fest on the Theresienwiese that is not called Oktoberfest is still in the cards. But that's a topic for June or so.

EDIT: of course, this is also part of the German politician's approach of "you can't trust the citizens" - any message that gives hope has to be shot down immediately since otherwise people would stop following covid protocols immediately. The only way to make people comply our politics believe in is fear and hopelessness.
 
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Perc

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I went to Oktoberfest in Stuttgart only a few short months before the entire world fell apart. Right now, drinking out of each others' 1-liter beer mugs and shouting in each others' ears feels like something that happened on another planet.
 

93Flareside

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If you read the statement carefully, this is not about staging a beer fest in Munich, but about international travel. Oktoberfest at it's current size needs influx of tourists from Asia and the US to be viable.
And since planning has to start now, they can't scale the event to the travel situation by September - either they end up with half empty beer halls and go bankrupt, or they end up so overcrowded it's outright dangerous.

I think a smaller scale beer fest on the Theresienwiese that is not called Oktoberfest is still in the cards. But that's a topic for June or so.

EDIT: of course, this is also part of the German politician's approach of "you can't trust the citizens" - any message that gives hope has to be shot down immediately since otherwise people would stop following covid protocols immediately. The only way to make people comply our politics believe in is fear and hopelessness.
Yeah, I understand that it’s a huge international draw, still sad.

Perhaps at the other events there will be this. :D

66BCFA89-0E9C-4483-88E4-9EF6E961A2E1.jpeg
 

gaasc

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The papers have now decided that we better just hope for herd inmunity.

Also submitted for your consideration is this chart that reflects the percentage of the population vaccinated in the region so far. It's listed by country. Keep in mind that it has not been corrected to reflect the differences in population between these countries.

Screenshot_2021-05-05 A cuentagotas costará llegar a la vacunación colectiva en Honduras - Dia...png
 

narf

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I'll do an mRNA prediction, AZ is too weird... and too irrelephant.

As of this morning, we've done 10.6M first and 5.3M second mRNA doses... so in one mRNA-separation-window we'll need to have used another 5.3M for the currently-unfinished people... I'll assume that is end of May, so 21.2M doses used for those 10.6M people. I'm also ignoring the low-six-figure people who we have to expect to die of various causes between their first and second shots throughout the vaccination campaign...
Based on the published delivery schedules we can expect to administer about 40M mRNA doses in total by the end of May, so 18.8M doses left over from the previous line - those can all go to first shots between now and end of May, yielding 29.4M first mRNA doses by end of May.
I believe Germany has about 70M adults, so 42% (obviously) first-mRNA-dose-rate for adults by the end of May, methinks.

AZ is at 4.1M doses as of this morning, I'm assuming they're all first doses. We do need to deduct a few million mRNA doses here to allow for under-60s first-AZ-dose people to get their second mRNA dose, that might be 3M ish. However, we can easily expect the future AZ doses to at least somewhat be used for more 60+ people, so I'm assuming those will cancel each other out. By end of May we could have a total of 10-15M AZ doses in arms, if people take them and there are no more oopsies.

Adding only those 4.1M already-administered first AZ doses and assuming the above does indeed cancel each other out in the coming weeks, we'd be at 33.5M first doses by the end of May, or almost 50% of the adult Germans.
As a rough ballpark, that's about as many adults as we can expect to be in groups 1 through 3, so we should see group 4 first vaccinations starting by the end of May with high (90+) uptake percentages in groups 1 through 3, mid-May with low uptake.




...do remind me to look back at this in 2, 4, 6, 8 weeks 🤓




PS: To illustrate why we can suddenly put more shots in arms, this is deliveries per week as of Sunday:

View attachment 3560807
The GPs are helping distribute it, but they're not the root cause. Delivery increases are... the same-size-as-the-last green column for this week is there but not published in the data yet because they moved to once-per-week ex-post for delivery data instead of same-day.
...three weeks later, time to update the predictions 🤓 tl;dr: back then I said 33.5M first doses by the end of May.

Current numbers? 17M BnT, 6M AZ, 1.5M Moderna first shots, so 24.5M in total. I'll ignore J&J entirely because it's still too low volume to be relevant, under half a million in total delivered by end of May.

AZ we'll need to administer about 1M 2nd doses by end of May, we're getting about 2M doses delivered, so maybe 1M first doses to add there :yawn:
BnT needs about 7M 2nd doses by end of May, we're getting about 14M doses delivered, so maybe 7M more first doses.
Moderna, needs about 600k 2nd doses, deliveries are 2.2M, so maybe 1.6M more first doses.

Sum it all up, 34.1M first doses by end of May... hardly any change compared to the previous forecast, but made with more and better data - not only is it closer to end of May, but we now have splits into first and second doses by manufacturer in the raw data.



PS: 7.7Hz 🏎️
 
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narf

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PPS: I just realized I accidentally made a 2nd-shots-by-end-of-May forecast in there too, so might as well sum that up: 15.5M fully vax'd Chermans by end of May.
 

Dr_Grip

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PPS: I just realized I accidentally made a 2nd-shots-by-end-of-May forecast in there too, so might as well sum that up: 15.5M fully vax'd Chermans by end of May.
18%. Jürgen W. Möllemann would be proud.
 

D-Fence

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Don't forget he fell rather deep in the end.

As context for non-Germans: German politician commited suicide by doing a parachute jump without opening the chute, so he hit rock bottom. Literally.


Also, update from my side regarding COVID: Both my and GFs parents had first shots, I had first shot, so now only waiting for GF to be allowed to get a shot. For me, Covid is mostly over and now awaiting how long it takes till normality comes back.

The amount of boomer cunts acting like privileged fucks is amazing though, we even have a word in German now for it "Impfneid", vaccination envy. "Why did person x get Biontech and I only get AZ? I am not a second class human" and then cancelling their appointments. Fuck you, fuck you so much, I hope you get covid and die painfully, you entitled shits.
 

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Still waiting for my first shot. Some parts of Finland has opened vaccination slots for all adults now, but it's not on a first book first serve model. If you're 30, someone that's 45 is going to get theirs before you. Still, applying for a shot is better than having to fight over a vaccination slot on monday morning when your age group suddenly is eligible.

I can't deny that I rather would have Pfizer than AZ, but it doesn't matter since I'm under 65.
 

Dr_Grip

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calvinhobbes

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The amount of boomer cunts acting like privileged fucks is amazing though
And they’re going to get massive privileges over the rest of us soon. No curfews, no quarantines, meet freely with vaccinated others, visit attractions and shops without tests… all while those who are having to wait can’t even get that with a recent negative test. Solidarity my unvaccinated ass.
 
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Dr_Grip

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And they’re going to get massive privileges over the rest of us soon. No curfews, meet freely with others, visit attractions and shops without tests… all while those who are having to wait can’t even get that with a recent negative test. Solidarity my unvaccinated ass.
This post is a prime example of "Impfneid".

This is not about "boomers" or "solidarity". It's not about "privileges" either. These people only get their fundamental civil right back. There is no legal way to take civil rights away from people who no longer pose a danger to the health and safety of themselves or others.

If in the name of you still having to wait for your shot for a few more weeks you want to take civil rights away from people for no reason at all: It's just not legal.
 

D-Fence

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And they’re going to get massive privileges over the rest of us soon. No curfews, no quarantines, meet freely with vaccinated others, visit attractions and shops without tests… all while those who are having to wait can’t even get that with a recent negative test. Solidarity my unvaccinated ass.

Topic missed, F

I am raging about the people who DON'T get vaccinated when they could because they want the better stuff.
You are raging about people who DID get vaccinated getting their CONSTITUTIONAL RIGHTS back.

Ladies and gentlemen, Impfneid.
 
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