Made from concentrate
- Jul 8, 2008
- 1979 Opel Kadett | 1972 Ford Country Sedan
A month and a bit later, time to take stock. As usual, numbers are for Germany, but percentages should more or less match all EU countries on a six-week dosing schedule that did not refuse certain vaccines (be it BioNTech because of the price, AZ because of the blood clodding, or both).Meanwhile, German media still paints scenarios of a collapsing vaccination campaign.
I ran some real-world numbers (and if I made a mistake, @narf surely will point it out). We are getting there. Slowly, probably a month or two behind UK/US, but we are getting there:
- As of Friday night 7,2 Mio/8,7% of the German populace have been vaccinated.
- That's more than 10% of those eligible (which is the number we should be reporting first place - but I will work from population percentage below anyways)
- Currently (before the AZ stoppage) we run at 900K/1,1% first shots per week
- So we can assume we will end March at 10-11% of the populace vaccinated.
- Premise 1: 50% of all vaccines available go to first shots. That's pessimistic twice since it neither accounts for the 12-week AstraZeneca window nor the J&J vaccine only needing one shot. But it makes the math easier.
- Premise 2: Infrastructure scale-up both in vaccination hubs and GP practices will work as planned
- Premise 3: The pessimism in Premise 1 will compensate for missed AZ deliveries
- Premise 4: For the sake of simplicity, we assume a similar vaccine uptake and distribution speed nationwide.
As mentioned in Premise 2, the supply side is the huge question mark here - while we are expecting enough doses for 53 Mio people until the end of Q2, no one knows whether especially AZ and Moderna will keep up with their contractual obligations. But as you can see, my reasonable worst case above already accounts for 8mio less.
- The plan for April assumes 2,25 Mio doses per week in the vaccination hubs. Here, we'll be able to give first shots to roughly 5 Mio/6% of the populace.
- GPs will join with 1 Mio shots in the first week of April, ramping up to 3.2 Mio in the last. Let's assume they'll provide first shots to another 4 Mio/5% of the populace.
- This means in April alone we will vaccinate as many people as in all of Q1. We will end the month between 20% and 25% of the populace vaccinated.
- The last week of April will see 2.7 mio first shots. Scaled to a month that's a good 12 Mio, so 15% of the populace.
- If we only are able to keep this pace, without scaling up more (again, a pessimistic assumption) we will have reached between 50 and 55% of the populace vacinated by end of June, that's around 45 million people.
- This means during July we will reach the approx. 50Mio/70% eligible for a shot that are waiting for one. From then onwards, the game changes to convincing those unsure or sceptic.
But as a more positive spanner thrown into this timeline, maybe we will see a BioNTech approval for kids over 12 before summer - that would of course add another 10 million eligible persons to the line, pushing us back two weeks or so.
- We ended April at 27,5% of all Germans having gotten a first shot.
- This means within a month we delivered first shots to 13 million people (15% of the populace), compared to 9 mio people in all of Q1.
- Priority groups are reaching "normal people" by now - not only myself, but almost a dozen members of FG Germany already got a shot or have one lined up for the next days
- By end of May, we should have reached 42-ish percent of the populace - that's half of those over 18.
- The 50 Million people/70% over 18 will probably be reached by mid-June, a month earlier than predicted.
- This puts us five weeks behind the US with a similar trajectory, and three months behind the UK, who since a month now are stuck in second shot hell (only 5% of the UK's population added to the first shot tally in April - we caught up 10%) so we'll catch up a lot within the next month. After all the screaming and complaints earlier, the EU, UK, and US will probably reach the point of relative normalcy though vaccination within six weeks of each other.
- As a "bad news that are actually good", so far it looks like vaccine uptake is a lot higher than those 70% predicted by polls, in the 80+% ballpark. So even though we are remarkably quicker than predicted earlier, it still will be July until all that want a shot get one.
- And that does not even touch on the questions where in the vaccination order kids between 12 and 18 will be dropped once the EMA approves the BioNTech vaccine for them...
- In any case, looking at the data from Israel, sometime during the second half of June or earlier we should see covid caseload in the EU hit a downward spiral.